1000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

1000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

First run back in 1814, the 1,000 Guineas is a Group One flat race run over 1m just for 3 year-old fillies. The contest is one of the five English Classics and staged at Newmarket racecourse in late April or early May each year.

It’s the second of the five English Classics with the 2,000 Guineas run the day before being the first, while winners of this race often go onto run well in that year’s Epsom Oaks the following month – the last horses to land both races in the same season was Kazzia in 2002 and Minding in 2016.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats & trends to take into the 2018 renewal – this year run on Sunday 6th May.

Did you know? 9 of the last 16 1,000 Guineas winners came from outside the top 3 in the betting?

 

Recent 1,000 Guineas Winners

2017 – Winter (9/1)
2016 – Minding (11/10 fav)
2015 – Legatissimo (13/2)
2014 – Miss France (7/1)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/1)
2012 – Homecoming Queen (25/1)
2011 – Blue Bunting (16/1)
2010 – Special Duty (9/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (20/1)
2008 – Natagora (11/4 fav)
2007 – Finsceal Beo (5/4 fav)
2006 – Speciosa (10/1)
2005 – Virginia Waters (12/1)
2004 – Attraction (11/2)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (12/1)
2002 – Kazzia (14/1)

1,000 Guineas Betting Trends

15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
11/16 – Won their previous race
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
5/16 – Previous Group One winners
5/16 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/16 – Won by a US bred horse
4/16 – Won by the favourite
3/16 – French-trained winners
3/16 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

 

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien doesn’t quite have as good a record in the 1,000 Guineas as he does in the 2,000 – however, four wins in the fillies’ Classic is still not a bad effort! The last two of those have come in the last two runnings too and in Happily he’s got this year’s favourite. However, we did last see this Group One-winning filly well beaten at the Breeders’ Cup in the Fillies’ Juvenile but the really firm surface and not getting the clearest of runs were fair excuses. Prior to that she’d landed two Group One’s – the Grand Criterium in France and the Moyglare Stud in Ireland – so it’s certainly out of the top drawer. She’s rated 113, which is the joint second highest in the field so as long as you can forgive that last run, where she did have excuses, then she’s the one to beat. With five career runs then she’s also one of the more experienced in the field but on the flip-side that also opens her up to a potential improver. The Ballydoyle camp took this 12 months ago with one of their second/third strings and based on that their other runners can’t be overlooked – don’t forget they also won the Derby with a 40/1 shot last year so these 3 year-olds can improve rapidly. With that in-mind I CAN FLY would not be the worst shout in the world. This filly has only had three career runs but has shown promise in a couple of Group Three’s and has also had the benefit of a recent run. The step up to a mile for the first time will suit and she’s also tasted the Newmarket track after running third here last October in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She’s been popular in the betting in the build-up which suggests she’s improved over the winter and also since that last run and could be the value against the obvious O’Brien hot-pot – Happily. Laurens is the other joint second top-rated runner at 113 and she’s done little wrong during her short career so far. We last saw her winning the Fillies’ Mile here over course and distance so that track experience is a big plus. She’s a game filly that just about sees out this mile well so has to be one for the shortlist too – she’s a big price for what she’s achieved and you feel if she was trained by O’Brien or one of the Godolphin lot then she’d be a lot shorter – she’s hard to ignore. Altyn Orda and Anna Nerium are lively outsiders that have decent course form here, while with the Mick Channon yard going great guns at the moment their Dan’s Dream, who won the Fred Darling last time out, can go well if taking to the step up to 1m. With a rating of 114 (the highest in the field) the Godolphin’s Wild Illusion is hard to ignore too. She was an easy winner of a Group One in France last time and is yet to finish out of the first two. She’s only had three runs so we can expect more and the Charlie Appleby camp have started the new season in tremendous form. However, the Appleby team also run SOLILOQUY and of their pair this well-bred Dubawi filly gets the call. She was last seen running away with the Nell Gywn over 7f here and if improving a tad on that would be a big player. She’s won over a mile in the past too so the trip is fine and will be looking to become the first Nell Gwyn winner to follow-up since Speciosa in 2006. I’m happy to side with this Godolphin runner, plus the Aidan O’Brien second string against the favourite – Happily.