2000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

2000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

The Qipco-sponsored 2,000 Guineas is a race run over 1m and is the first of the five English Classics to be run each season – with the 1,000 Guineas run the following day. Both races are staged at Newmarket racecourse, and for 3 year-olds only, the race is also seen as an early-season guide to that year’s Epsom Derby – the last horses to win both races in the same season were Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and stats ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 5th May 2018

Did you know? 10 of the last 16 2,000 Guineas winners came from the top 3 in the betting?

 

Past 2,000 Guineas Winners

2017 – Churchill (6/4 fav)
2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav)
2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav)
2010 – Makfi (33/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006 – George Washington (6/4 fav)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004 – Haafhd (11/2)
2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

Key 2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats

16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 times before
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
11/16 – Having their first run of the season
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
9/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
9/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (8 wins)
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Had won over a mile before
5/16 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/16 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/16 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/16 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

– Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015 & 2017
– Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

 

TQ VERDICT: As normal the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp, who will be eyeing a staging ninth win in the race, have another strong hand in this opening Classic of the new turf season – with both Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt his big players. No Ryan Moore riding as he’s on other Ballydoyle duties this weekend so Saxon Warrior will be ridden by Donnach O’Brien, while Gustav Klimt will be handled by Seamie Heffernan. Saxon Warrior heads here 3-from-3 and has been popular in the ante-post betting since his Racing Post Trophy win at Doncaster back in October. He really could be anything and based on his breeding looks certain to be stepped up in trip at some stage this season – he’s around 3/1 for the Epsom Derby next month. He’ll need a good performance here though if he’s to head to the Downs. He got the job done well last time but I just feel he might want further already as he only just got up in that last race over a mile. He had Roaring Lion only a neck back that day and even though he’s a big player the fact he’s never run at Newmarket is another slight question mark for him to overcome. For me, he could still get beaten here but still go well in the Derby next month. O’Brien’s other main runner – Gustav Klimt – on the other hand – is stepping up from 6f and 7f to a mile here so has that question to overcome. Having said that, this Galileo colt is certainly bred to stay further and the way he was going away over 7f suggests he’ll be fine over this mile. I think he’s got the slightly better Guineas profile of the O’Brien runners and despite being officially rated 7lbs lower than Saxon Warrior I’ll take him from the Ballydoyle runners. However, it might not be plain-sailing for the main Irish raiders. Expert Eye burst onto the scene last season with eye-catching wins at Newbury and Goodwood, but he’s rather lost his way since and was turned over by James Garfield, who is still double his price, in the Greenham Stakes last time out – the step up to a mile might help but he’s got a bit to prove for me. Frankie sticks with James Garfield and of the bigger-priced runners he could go well but the step up to a mile is not really sure to suit so a place might be the best he can hope for. Off a mark of 118 then Roaring Lion is rated to go well but this John Gosden runner was firmly put in his place last time here in the Craven Stakes by MASAR, so this horse gets the nod. This Godolphin runner won by an impressive 9 ¼ lengths that day and with proven course form there could be more to come. He quickened into the dip very well last time and if running to that level again must surely go close. Yes, his profile is a bit hit-and-miss, and he’s yet to record back-to-back wins but he looked a different horse last time on his first try at the track and hopefully that win will give him more confidence. He’ll be looking to become the first Craven winner since Haafhd to go onto land the Guineas. The other interesting runner away from the O’Brien hot-pots is the Mark Johnston-trained – ELARQAM. This 3 year-old is 2-from-2 after easy wins at York and here at Newmarket and there should be more to come. We know he acts on the track after winning the Group Three Somerville Stakes here last September and with another winter on his back will be a lot stronger this season. The step up from 7f to a mile looks within range for this Frankel colt, who will be looking to follow-up his dad’s win in the race in 2011 and also give trainer Mark Johnston his second win in the contest after landing the prize back in 1994 with Mister Baileys. I’d rather play both the two proven course winners in Masar and Elarqam, who should both be similar prices, against the field.