2018 Bet365 Gold Cup Free Tips and Trends

2018 Bet365 Gold Cup Free Tips and Trends

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 22 of the last 27 (81%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ve got all the stats ahead of the 2018 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 28th.

 

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

 

Bet365 Betting Trends and Stats

15/15 – Had raced in the last 56 days
14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had won over 3m or further before
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
10/15  – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Officially rated 140 or higher
9/15 – Had raced in the last 25 days
8/15 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/15 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Won last time out
0/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
22 of the last 27 (81%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

 

TQ VERDICT: This race has been a graveyard race for favourite backers in recent years – with Beau (2000) – the last market leader to land the spoils – at this stage the likes of Missed Approach, who we last saw winning the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and Blaklion, who was well-fancied in the recent Grand National, are set to be at the front of the betting market. Missed Approach will love the stamina test this race provides and fair-play to connections who also stick with his amateur jockey – Mr N McParlan – who rode him at Cheltenham last time too. An 8lb hike in the ratings makes life a lot harder though but he’s a horse that has clearly benefitted by a recent wind op (had this before Cheltenham) and with only 10 races over fences (placed 6 times) he could have more to offer. Blaklion is another that’s had a recent wind op after getting trounced two starts ago at Haydock. He also got no further than the first fence in the National last time so there are a lot of unknows to answer still. He does, however, have a monster 11-12 to carry and with 22 of the last 27 winners carrying less than 11st then he’s got this trend to overcome and overlooked for me. With 73% of the last 15 winners aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old then this age bracket looks the one to focus on and if this is to be repeated then of the 20 runners we are left with 13. Looking at the trainer stats then the Stuart Edmunds yard boasts a decent 40% strike-rate at the track so his Domesday Book looks interesting. This 8 year-old was last seen winning the Kim Muir at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival so has clearly had issues since but popped at 40/1 that day and was also well-suited by the good ground on that occasion. If fully tuned-up for this return could go well at a nice price with Gina Andrews getting the leg-up, but it is worth noting that all of the last 15 winners had raced within the last 56 days. The 11 year-old Houblon Des Obeaux was well-fancied for the National last time too but only got as far as the sixth fence. Off a mark of 142 he’s well-handicapped on old form and is a proven course winner here but clearly isn’t getting any younger. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race four times before, with the most-recent in 2015. He tries this year with Present Man, who had a good start to the season but his form seemed to tail off. A recent break is sure to have done the horse good and he’s gone well fresh before – however, off a mark of 147 he’ll need a career-best here. The Nicky Henderson camp boasts a decent 24% record here with their chasers so SUGAR BARON (e/w) is the first one for the shortlist. The yard won this in 2014 too, while this horse was seventh in this 12 months ago. He gets in off the same mark but was actually only beaten 2 ½ lengths that day. He’s now another year older at 8 years-old and should be spot on for this after running in the Kim Muir last time out. This will only be his fourth race since running in this 12 months ago and I suspect this has been a firm target for him all season – Nico de Boinville rides. Trainer Peter Bowen has a +37 level stakes profit at the track but that was mainly due to his 40/1 winner of this race last year – Henllan Harri. This 10 year-old is the first reserve so there is a chance he’ll get in to defend his title but is up a massive 9lbs from last year’s head victory so has it all to do. Bowen also has Minella Daddy, who gets in with just 10-2 and can be expected to be seen in a much better light on this better ground – he can go well. The Pipe stable are another that do well at the track, with a 29% record with their chasers, so their course winner Rathlin Rose can be considered while Carole’s Destrier and Benbens are other proven course and distance winners in the field. After a dire season there have been signs in the last few weeks the Philip Hobbs team are set to end the campaign well and they’ve won this race a few times in the past. They have Rock The Kasbah going here, who was another that figured well in this race last year. He was a close-up sixth 12 months ago so can be expected to go well again but is racing off a 7lbs higher rating this time. But the other pick has got to be THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w). This horse landed this race two years ago so we know the track and trip are fine, plus he’s a massive 13lbs lower this time. He was also a fair 9th in the race last year off a 13lb higher rating too and this year gets in with only 10-0 to carry. Yes, with Blaklion in the race he’s 3lbs out of the handicap but having won the race with 10-12 then he must have a big chance two years later with only 10-0. Yes, he’s not quite built on that win but was a fair sixth in the Kim Muir two starts ago and we can ignore his last run when unseating his rider at the first fence in last Saturday’s Scottish National.