2018 Cambridgeshire Free Tips and Trends (Sat 29th Sept)

2018 Cambridgeshire Free Tips and Trends (Sat 29th Sept)

Run over 1m1f the Cambridgeshire Handicap is staged at Newmarket racecourse on their Rowley Mile track. First run in 1839 the contest is the first race in what’s known as the Autumn Double, with the Cesarewitch being the other race run in October.

We take a look ahead to the 2018 renewal of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap, this year run on Saturday 29th September – giving you the key stats to look out for…..Did you know ALL of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or younger?

 

Recent Cambridgeshire Handicap Winners

2017 – Dolphin Vista (50/1)
2016 – Spark Plug (12/1)
2015 – Third Time Lucky (14/1)
2014 – Bronze Angel (14/1)
2013 – Educate (8/1 fav)
2012 – Bronze Angel (9/1)
2011 – Prince of Johanne (40/1)
2010 – Credit Swap (14/1)
2009 – Supaseus (16/1)
2008 – Tazeez (25/1)
2007 – Pipedreamer (5/1 fav)
2006 – Formal Decree (9/1)
2005 – Blue Monday (5/1 fav)
2004 – Spanish Don (100/1)
2003 – Chivalry (14/1)
2002 – Beauchamp Pilot (14/1)

Key Cambridgeshire Handicap Trends

16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Won 3 or more times in their career
13/16 – Carried 9-4 or less
12/16 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
12/16 – Won from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
12/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/16 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/16 – Rated between 90-100
11/16 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Won their last race
10 of the last 12 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 22/1

 

A monster 35 runners to go through here so the trends can help us a lot. With ALL of the last 16 winners aged 6 or younger then this knocks Examiner, Mythical Madness and Mistiroc out, while with 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 4 and 6 then I’m going to ignore the 3 year-olds in the race too – Wissahickon, Danceteria, Kenya, Ventura Knight & Stylehunter. The last horse older than 6 to win was Rambo’s Hall (7) in 1992. In terms of weight it’s 9st 4lbs or lower that seems to be the cut-off point so the top nine on the card will have this trend to overcome too. Winning at least three times in their career, having five or more runs that season and being placed fifth or better last time out are other key trends to note. Taking all those into account the ones that standout for me are KYNREN (e/w), VIA VIA (e/w), ZWAYYAN (e/w) and VIA SERENDIPITY (e/w). Jockey William Buick has been booked to ride the consistent Kynren and this 4 year-old deserves to win one of these big-field handicaps. He was a neck second in the Clipper Handicap at York last time and prior to that an excellent third in the John Smith’s Cup. He’s a versatile sort regarding the trip and with key trends like weight (9-3) and draw (22) on his side another bold showing looks on the cards. The James Tate-trained Via Via was freshened-up with a 3 month break at the end of May but returned last month with a solid second on the July course here. He kept on well to take second over a mile last time so the step up in trip should be within range, while the first-time blinkers clearly did the trick that day – they are on again here. Zwayyan hails from the Andrew Balding yard, who are having a cracking season but are also looking for their first win in this race. This 5 year-old was a fair second at Ascot last time out over a mile off this mark and looks worth a crack up in trip here today. Balding also runs recent easy York winner Pivoine, but he’s up a big-looking 8lbs for that win and it won’t be easy with 9-9 to carry. The final of the main picks – Via Serendipity – is closely-matched with Zwayyan after beating that one into third in a decent handicap at Ascot in August and is only 3lbs higher here. He’s also a course winner here at the track (last November), while Gerald Mosse catches the eye in the saddle. Draw 33 is fine and gets in here with 9-1 in weight. Of the rest, the John Gosden camp have a good record in the race so their runners Stylehunter, Tricorn and Wissahickon will be popular, especially the last-named with Frankie Dettori looking to follow-up his 1994 win in the race (Halling). We’ve a rare runner for Aidan O’Brien in the race – Kenya – so this is another to note, while Godolphin’s Very Talented was a smooth winner on his return at Chelmsford after 700+ days off and providing the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ doesn’t raise it’s head looks interesting too. Alfarris and Sharja Bridge are two more that have been popular in the build-up to the race in the ante-post markets, but both are others that seem to have their fair amount of weight. They will be looking to become only the second horses since 1996 to win with 9-7 or more on their backs.