2018 Epsom Derby Free Tips and Trends

2018 Epsom Derby Free Tips and Trends

It’s the highlight race on the flat racing calendar as the best middle distance 3 year-olds of the season lock horns in the Epsom Derby. Steeped in history winners of the race will see their stud value rocket as soon as they cross the line.

Did you know that ALL of the last 15 Derby winners had raced no more than 5 times before?

Here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we take a look at recent winners and highlight the key trends ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 2nd June 2018

 

Past Epsom Derby Winners

2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends

16/16 – Raced no more than 5 times before
15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Favourites that were placed
11/16 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/16 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/16 – Had won a Group One before
8/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Won by the favourite
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
4/16 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
4/16 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/16 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/16 – Won over 1m4f before
0/16 – Run at the course before
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 6/1
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

 

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017

 

TQ VERDICT: This season’s 2,000 Guineas winner – Saxon Warrior – has been all the rage for the Derby for much of the winter and that support continued after his easy 2,000 Guineas win at Newmarket last month. He will be the main player from Aidan O’Brien’s five runners in the race as the Ballydoyle maestro goes in search of his seventh Derby success. This well-bred 3 year-old is yet taste defeat from four starts and there could be even more to come now stepped up in trip. Let’s make no mistake – he’s a big player, but his price also reflects that! Those against him might look to the potential soft ground as a negative as despite winning on it in the past, connections have said it’s not totally ideal. He’s also been handed stall 1 and we’ve not seen a single Derby winner in the last 16 years to come from that starting berth – it might be something of nothing, but still a trend to take note of. For me, Saxon Warrior is a serious player here and even his short price might look value after the race. However, we won’t get rich backing him so I’d prefer to play one or two in the field against him. Dee Ex Bee will be looking to follow in the hoofprints of last year’s winner – Wings Of Eagles – after also running second in the Chester Vase last time out. This Mark Johnston-trained 3 year-old is also a course winner so we know the track suits and has only finished out of the first three once from seven starts – of those at a bigger prices, he’s not the worst shout in the world. Knight To Behold fits in that category too. He was an easy winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial – beating another O’Brien runner, Kew Gardens, by just over 3 lengths last time and should have more to come. Of course, this would require a step up but at least we know the horse stays this trip, which can’t be said for a lot of these. He’ll be looking to become the first horse since High Rise (1998) to land both races. John Gosden’s Sevenna Star won the Bet365 Classic at Sandown last time and has form with cut but this is another leap up in class and he might just fall short. Of the other O’Brien runners – Delano Roosevelt – might handle the softer ground the best and has form that links him not too far behind Saxon Warrior and Hazapour so with O’Brien no stranger to landing this race with one of his bigger-priced runners then he can’t be discounted either. Another that will be popular is Roaring Lion. Okay, he’s got a bit of ground to make-up with Saxon Warrior based on his fifth in the 2,000 Guineas, but he was very impressive when upped in trip when landing the Dante Stakes at York last time and that race has proved to be a top Derby Trial in recent years – 10 Dante winners have gone onto land the Derby. However, this US-bred 3 year-old would have a bit to prove on this ground. Yes, this John Gosden runner has won on good-to-soft and was only a neck behind Saxon Warrior on that ground in the Racing Post Trophy last season but that recent Dante win came on a much quicker surface (good-to-firm) so it’s a bit of an unknown if he can translate that form here in much more testing conditions. Yes, if conditions dried out considerably then he’d be a big player but time might be against him on that score. However, the two I’m going to play against the favourite are HAZAPOUR and YOUNG RASCAL. That first-named will be popular with a certain Mr Dettori riding for Dermot Weld and with just four career runs there could be more to come. The Weld yard won the Derby two years ago with a similar sort and he should be a lot fitter for that recent Leopardstown win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. This one is expected to be well-supported against the favourite and hails from a very shrewd yard that certainly know the time of day in this race, while the softer ground and this step up in trip should eke out more improvement. The other main selection – Young Rascal was a good winner of the Chester Vase and despite only winning by ½ a length there looked to be more in the locker. He beat Dee Ex Bee that day but didn’t get the clearest of runs in the closing stages so did well to get the job done. The William Haggas yard are also in cracking form with their runners heading into this meeting and also have a bit of history in the race – winning it back in 1996 with Shaamit. He’s got form on good-to-soft and the way he travelled through the race last time at Chester certainly caught the eye. Okay, he looked a bit green in the closing stages last time but that also suggests there is more to come. Add in that he handled the tight turns of the Roodee last time so there is every chance he’ll be well-balanced enough to also cope with the undulations that Epsom throws at these young horses too. He’s a very exciting horse that looks to have a big season ahead. James Doyle rides.