2018 Epsom Oaks Free Tips and Trends

2018 Epsom Oaks Free Tips and Trends

Run over 1m4f the Epsom Oaks is the third of the five English Classics to be run each season and is for 3 year-old fillies.

Did you know that 11 of the last 16 winners came from stall 5 or higher?

Here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends and trainer stats ahead of the 2018 Epsom race – this year run on Friday 1st June 2018

 

Recent Epsom Oaks Winners

2017 – Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
2015 – Qualify (50/1)
2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
2013 – Talent (20/1)
2012 – Was (20/1)
2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1)
2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)
2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav)
2008 – Look Here (33/1)
2007 – Light Shift (13/2)
2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav)
2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav)
2004 – Ouija Board (7/2)
2003 – Casual Look (10/1)
2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)

Epsom Oaks Betting Trends

16/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
13/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/16 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
10/16 – Favourites that were placed
9/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
4/16 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/16 – Irish-trained winners
2/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/16 – Had run at the course before
0/16 – Had run over 1m4f before
7 of the last 11 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 6 times
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 12.5/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 14 runnings

 

TQ VERDICT: With Godolphin’s Wild Illusion a running-on fourth in the 1,000 Guineas last time out then she sets a fair standard but it goes without saying this step up to 1m4f is a big question mark. Breeding suggests it’s within range for this Dubawi filly though and with winning form on soft ground then she ticks a lot of boxes. However, she does have some negatives too. 13 of the last 16 winners of the Oaks finished first or second last time out, while horses from stall 1 have actually been unplaced in 14 of the last 16 renewals – let alone win the race! Yes, off a mark of 113 then she sets the standard but I’d have rather seen her over this sort of trip first really – Godolphin will be looking for their first Oaks winner since Kazzia (2002). In contrast to the recent record of the boys in blue in this race, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a much better return in this contest. They won the race six times in total and landed two of the last three. They are mob-handed again here, with recent Cheshire Oaks winner – Magic Wand – looking their main hope. She had another of their runners – Forever Together – 3 ½ lengths back in second that day and should, therefore, be able to confirm that form. Magic Wand looks a big player. Bye Bye Baby and I Can Fly are other O’Brien runners and certainly can’t be ruled out either. These fillies can improve at a rate of knots from these opening races of their 3 year-old careers and Bye Bye Baby is already a Group Three winner on soft ground over 1m2f so commands respect too. However, I can’t help feeling I CAN FLY (e/w) has more to come. She was well-fancied for the 1,000 Guineas after going off 7/1 so that running (11th) surely wasn’t her true self. The step up in trip is an unknown but on breeding it looks the right call. O’Brien is also no stranger to landing this race with his second, or third strings – Was (2012, 20/1) and Qualify (2015, 50/1) are two recent examples of this. The fact she was so well-fancied for the Oaks is a sign the Ballydoyle camp think she’s a bit better than she’s been showing and over this longer trip might just be worth chancing they are right. Of the rest, Perfect Clarity was a good winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial and is the only proven distance winner in the field. This Clive Cox runner is 2-from-2 so far and the way she ran on last time suggests there’s more to come. At least we know she stays, but this will be the softest ground she’s encountered. The other pick though and value call in the race is GIVE AND TAKE (e/w). This 3 year-old was a good winner of the Musidora Stakes last time out and is yet to finish out of the first two from 5 starts. She’s one of the more experienced in the field and did well to still win last time out after being carried right in the final stages. She’s won on good-to-soft ground so that helps and although this is a big step forward the Musidora is often a fair trial ahead of this race – she’s taken to continue her upward progression. Ejtyah was third in the Musidora so has around 2 ½ lengths to make up but the longer trip should help and it’s also worth noting that 50% of the last 14 horses from stall 2 have been placed, so this could be one for you placepot players out there.