2018 Irish Oaks Free Tips and Trends

Doncaster TV Trends and Free Tips: Thursday 13th Sept 2018

Staged at the Curragh racecourse the Irish Oaks is a Group One race run over a distance of 1m4f and for 3 year-old fillies.

In recent years horses that ran in the Epsom Oaks previously have gone well, with six of the last 15 Epsom winners going onto follow-up in the Irish version the following month – including 12 months ago when the classy Enable landed both races. Plus, with 13 of the last 15 winners having finished first or second last time out this is another key trend to note.

We look at all the key recent stats ahead of the 2018 running  – this year staged on Saturday 21st July 2018 – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Recent Irish Oaks Winners

2017 – ENABLE (2/5 fav)
2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
2012 – GREAT HEAVENS (5/4 fav)
2011 – BLUE BUNTING (5/2)
2010 – SNOW FAIRY (7/2)
2009 – SARISKA (Evs fav)
2008 – MOONSTONE (2/1 fav)
2007 – PEEPING FAWN (3/1)
2006 – ALEXANDROVA (8/15 fav)
2005 – SHAWANDA (9/2)
2004 – OUIJA BOARD (4/7 fav)
2003 – VINTAGE TIPPLE (12/1)

Irish Oaks Betting Trends and Stats

14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/15 – Won last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Won over 1m4f before
8/15 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
7/15 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
7/15 – Won by a UK-based trainer
6/15 – Had won a Group One before
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/15 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/2

 

TQ VERDICT: With six wins in the Irish Oaks then trainer Sir Michael Stoute actually beats leading Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien – by one. However, Stoute doesn’t have a runner this year and with O’Brien having three of the seven entries there is every chance the Ballydoyle maestro can draw level.

English Oaks winner, Forever Together, is the highest-rated in the race and was super-impressive when winning that Epsom Classic by 4 ½ lengths last month. However, he’s since been well beaten into second in the Pretty Polly Stakes here at the Curragh, by the William Haggas-trained Urban Fox. His supporters will look to that drop in trip as a negative and the return to 1m4f as a plus and must still have a decent chance – Snow Fairy (2010) was the last horse to win both the English and Irish Oaks in the same season.

William Haggas, who beat Forever Together last time with his Urban Fox, does have another runner here though – Sea Of Class – and he’ll be the only representative from the British-based trainers in the race. This 107-rated filly has a leading chance too. She’s been impressive in winning her last two Listed races at Newbury over 1m2f and now upped in trip there could be a lot more to come. She loves a quick surface and is likely to get that here, while connections have resisted the temptation to run here at Royal Ascot and the other big meetings over the last 4-6 weeks to keep her fresh for this – she’s a big player and leading jockey, James Doyle, who has ridden her in all three of her races to date comes over for the ride.

However, the two mentioned might still have to go some to beat MAGIC WAND. This O’Brien runner is the pick of Ryan Moore and after her 4 length romp in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot went into many a notebook. Yes, she was 11 lengths behind Forever Together in the Epsom Oaks but the soft ground was against her that day and as she showed at Ascot once running on quicker ground she’s a much better horse.

Sea Of Class has still only won at Listed level so despite having lot of potential still needs to step up, but at least Magic Wand has won a Group Two. This is another rise into a Group One, but the way she won last time suggests she’s well up to the task and the fact Moore has picked her of the O’Brien trio speaks volumes.