2018 John Smith’s Cup Free Tips and Trends

Run over 1m2f at York racecourse the John Smith’s Cup (originally the Magnet Cup) is one of the first races the well-known brewery decided to sponsor back in 1960, and having stuck loyal to the contest ever since means this is now the longest running association with a flat race in the world.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight some key John Smiths Cup trends to look out for ahead of the 2018 renewal, this year run on Saturday July 14th.


Did you know that 15 of the last 16 John Smith’s Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 9 or higher………………..?

 

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners…….

2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 –  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/16 – Came from stall 9 or higher
12/16 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Carried 9-3 or less
10/16 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Officially rated between 99-105
7/16 – Had run at York before
5/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11/1

 

 

A lot of key trends to go on here so we can hopefully narrow down the 19 runners. With a massive 15 of the last 16 winners aged 5 or younger then this is a negative for Master The World, Appeared, Tandem, Sir Chauvelin, Dance King and Master Carpenter. In fact, if you want to take this trend a bit further it’s the 4 year-olds that have the better record – winning 10 of the last 16. Next-up is the draw and with 13 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this is another stat to note, while 12 of the last 16 winners had between 3-5 runs this term and 10 of the last 16 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight. Dash Of Spice will be all the rage after wins at Epsom and Ascot recently and could have more to offer. He’s up 5lbs more here but it’s worth noting those wins came over 1m4f so the drop in trip is not totally ideal. Yes, he’s won over this 1m2f trip but those came on the AW and on heavy ground. He’s a player, but certainly no value. Thundering Blue is another that will be popular and is a course and distance winner here. He was around 9 lengths behind Dash Of Spice last time but didn’t have the best of runs that day, while the drop back to 1m2f looks likely to suit him better after getting tired over that longer distance last time. Afaak is another of the more-fancied runners to note but he’s got a big weight (9-7) and is running over this 1m2f trip for the first time. So, having applied the main trends the four we are going to take a chance on are BUZZ, FAYEZ, DAWAALEEB and MORDIN. Buzz heads here having won his last two on the AW and the first of those wins was a 1 ¼ length win over Dash Of Spice. Of course, he’ll have to translate that form to the turf and is 0-from-4 on the grass so far but is also a better horse now that is full of confidence so is worth another chance with only 8-11 to carry. Fayez would require a step-up but this David O’Meara runner has been running consistently all season and is another that should like the step up in trip. Dawaaleeb was a neck winner at Redcar last time out but David Allen is a top jockey booking and should have more to offer with only 9 career runs. Draw 11 looks fine and 8-12 is a nice racing weight. The final pick is Mordin – a horse that has finished in the top two in all of his six career runs. He could still be ahead of the handicapper and actually gets in here off the same mark as when winning last time. Draw 9 means he’s right on the edge of the draw trend – but that’s fine. The final one to note is Across Dubai, mainly because he comes from the William Haggas yard that won this in 2011 and 2013. This 4 year-old had only 8-13 to carry and is also sporting the first-time cheekpieces. A recent third was a step back in the right direction – his only negative possibly being draw 7.