2018 Northumberland Plate Free Tips and Trends

2018 Northumberland Plate Free Tips and Trends

Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables, while sponsors John Smith’s have supported the race now since 2003.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 30th June 2018.

 

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2017 –  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

15/16  – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
15/16 – Finished fifth or better last time out
14/16 – Came from stall 14 or lower
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/16 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/16 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/16 – Won their previous race
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 10 winners)
3/16 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/16 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 13.5/1
Note: The 2016 & 2017 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 12 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

TQ VERDICT: Several key trends to note here – like 15 of the last 16 winners finishing in the top 5 last time out. Add in that 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or younger and came from stalls 14 of lower then these three stats alone should know a fair few out. Being run over 2 ½ furlongs then it’s no shock to see a lot of National Hunt trainers on show and with six of the last 16 winners of this race coming for a yard more famed for it’s jumpers then this is another thing to note. With this in mind, the Willie Mullins-trained Lagostovegas must enter the mix. He landed the Ascot Stakes last week over 2m4f and off just 5lbs higher must have every chance if translating that form to the AW. This will be his first run on a sand surface though and the Newcastle track will be a much different test. Off 9-0 in weight he’s respected but with just 11 days between races it would be a tough ask. The Roger Charlton runner – Withhold – is the one punters have been coming for all week and it’s easy to see why. This lightly-raced 5 year-old was an easy winner of the Cesarewitch last October and based on beating 33 others that day by just over 3 lengths the form is solid. However, he’s not been seen since – maybe to protect his handicap mark, but is still up 12lbs from that last win. Of course, he looks a huge player but also looks little value for a race of this nature. Natural Scenery was a close second in the race last year and is a proven CD winner at the track. He can be expected to go well despite some average runs of late. However, it’s hard to get away from the horse that beat him 12 months ago – HIGHER POWER. Tominator won the race in 2011 and 2013 but Higher Power will be looking to become the horse since Tug Of War landed back-to-back wins in 77 &78. He’s only rated a pound higher than last year and a recent second at Chelmsford last month should have him cheery-ripe for this. Since last year this James Fanshawe runner has also had a wind-op and with connections avoiding the temptation of Ascot then will head here fresh and ready to defend his crown. The other of interest is the Ed Dunlop runner – AMAZING RED. Jim Crowley catches the eye in the saddle, while with just 9-0 this 5 year-old ticks a lot of the key trends. He was last seen winning well over 1m6f at HQ and was a good winner over 2m at Kempton on the AW back in May so the trip and track are fine. He is, however, up 5lbs more this time but looks as if he’s still go more to offer over these extreme trips on the level and can go well again. Finally, I mentioned the good track form of jockey Callum Rodriguez during the last race (21%) – he rides Nakeeta here so of the bigger-priced runners might be worth a small interest.