2018 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 23rd June)

2018 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 23rd June)

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Chesham Stakes and the Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know that 12 of the last 15 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners were aged 5 or younger?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
14/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Ran over 6f last time out (8 won)
13/15 – Had just 1 previous career run
12/15 – Were foaled in March or earlier
10/15 – Won their previous race
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
11 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
9 of the last 12 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

TQ VERDICT: Ok, so trainer former Derby-winning trainer Paul Cole is not the force of old these days, but this race has been a firm favourite of his in the past – winning it four times. With that in mind, his Duke Of Hazard can be given a squeak, despite having a bit to find on recent runnings. He has, however, got better with each of his two runs and has also looked as if this step up from 5f to 7f will also bring out a bit more – he’s just been finding things happening a bit too quick over the minimum trip. However, with trainer Aidan O’Brien landing the last two runnings of this race then it’s also hard to ignore is sole runner – CARDINI. This 2 year-old hasn’t set the world alight so far after two unplaced finishes at the Curragh but the step up to 7f (from 6f) looks likely to bring out more. The yard boasts an impressive 25% record at the course with their 2 year-olds, while jockey Ryan Moore has a 30% strike-rate riding juveniles here. Whether he’s up to the class of past winners of this race like Churchill, Maybe and September then we’ll have to wait and see. The yard is also sure to have had a few candidates for this so the fact he’s their only runner, in a race they are looking for their third win on the spin in, looks interesting. Another stable that do well here with their youngsters is the Charlie Appleby team (25%) so their recent Kempton scorer – Beyond Reason – also enters the mix. This filly dotted-up by an easy 4 lengths that day over 6f and getting a 5lb fillies allowance has done the trick for two of the last seven winners. In contrast to these good juvenile strike-rates here, the Mick Channon yard are just 2 from 34 – so their Azor Ahai is overlooked. We’ve an unraced French raider in On A Season from the Matthieu Palussiere yard that know how to produce winners at this meeting. The fact he’s coming over for a race like this on debut would suggest he’s a fair sort – any market support should be noted. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston yard have won the race a few times in the past – but not for a while. However, with three of the 11 runners – New Winds, Aussie View, who is the only proven distance winner in the field and NATALIE’S JOY they clearly mean business this year. The three all come here off the back of good last time out wins but it’s their once-raced Natalie’s Joy that could have more to come. She dotted-up by an easy 6 lengths on debut at Goodwood over 6f and after being eased close home probably could have made it 10 lengths. Yes, this will be harder, but she’s another that gets the fillies allowance (5lbs) and that coupled with the way she won last time looks to give her a big say. She also holds a Group One Phoenix Stakes entry so is though up to that level, plus looking at her breeding then getting this extra furlong over this 7f trip will be fine.

 

3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/15 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
13/15 – Placed last time out
13/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6)
10/15 – Had run at Ascot before
10/15 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 8 winners)
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/15 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
6/15 – Won their previous race
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
10 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: Last season’s Derby runner-up – Cliffs Of Moher – has only won one of his last 10 races and despite being a fair middle distance performer this 4 year-old simply doesn’t win enough for me and of the O’Brien pair I’d rather be siding with Idaho, who also took this race 12 months ago. He’s since won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester but ran a bit flat in the Coronation Cup last time at Epsom, but the softer ground that day wouldn’t have been ideal. Back on this quick surface (was good-to-firm last year) he can be seen in a much better light. Barsanti and Rare Rhythm are both rated 115 and are also both proven course and distance winners here so command respect based on that. Barsanti was also runner-up (1/2 length) in this race last year and has since this season ground out a Listed Class victory over at the track – he should not be far away. Rare Rhythm landed the Duke Of Edinburgh stakes here last season but has since done the bulk of his racing over longer trips, while with two defeats at this level has a bit to prove in this sort of company. So that leaves us with CRYSTAL OCEAN – a horse that is rated 122 and 4lbs clear of last year’s winner – Idaho – and 7lbs higher than Rare Rhythm, Barsanti and Cliffs of Moher. Trained by Royal Ascot’s most successful ever trainer – Sir Michael Stoute – who have their horses in fine fettle at the moment then he’s going to take some beating here. Ryan Moore bypasses the O’Brien runners in favour of this Stoute runner and has ridden him to his last three victories. Those against him might say he’s yet to win at this level with his recent wins coming in Group Three’s but he was a close second in the Leger last season and was far from disgraced in the Dante Stakes (3rd) and King Edward VII Stakes (3rd) last term. But, it’s clear he’s a slightly better horse this season and has progressed nicely from 3 to 4, while the way he won (6 lengths) last time at Group Three level still makes him the one to beat. Last year’s winner, Idaho – can chase him home. Red Verdon makes up the six runners, but with 13lbs to find with the selection has a fair bit to find.

 

3.40 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2017 – Sound And Silence (16/1)
2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

16/16 – Had at least 1 previous outing
15/16 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
13/16 – Had won over 5f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
8/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won by a Feb foal
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Wesley Ward
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/1

TQ VERDICT: The US yard of Wesley Ward won this race in 2009 and 2014, so they will be looking to follow-up with the filly Moonlight Romance here. This 2 year-old won by an easy 5 ½ lengths last time at Belmont, but, as I always say, that form is hard to compare to European runners. The market will be your best guide here, but the yard has not seemed in the best of form this week so that would be a worry for me. One that did catch the eye last time though was the Charles Hills-trained – MUTAWAFFER. This 2 year-old won at Goodwood last time out by an easy 2 ¼ lengths and that also came over 6f so we know he stays. He broke well that day and made most so if able to do the same here then can be expected to run right through to the line. Jim Crowley rides. The Richard Fahey-trained Sabre was a close second in a good Listed race at Sandown last time and can go well too if building on that and the yard have won this race in the past too (2010) – my only concern would be that the stable are currently 0 from 26 with their 2 years-olds here at the track. Rolling King is another from the French-based Matthieu Palussiere yard that could improve for the first-time blinkers, while with a 25% strike-rate with their 2 year-olds at the track, then anything the Aidan O’Brien yard runs should be noted – at this stage they have Van Beethoven, North Wind and Isle Of Innisfree entered, with the first-named on that trio looking their main hope. Michael Bell’s unbeaten James Watt is another to have on your radar. The yard has a 21% record with their 2 year-olds here and this horse could have more to come with Hayley Turner, who has ridden him on both previous races, continuing in the saddle. John Gosden won this in 2016 and he teams up again here with Frankie with KESSAAR. The Italian had a decent 26% record when riding 2 year-olds here and their runner here did well to finish second on debut at York after getting badly hampered during the race. With a bit more luck in-running should be bang there. However, the other pick here is the one at the foot of the card – QUEEN OF BERMUDA. This filly gets the 5lb allowance here and that will be a huge asset. She’s won her last two races very well, including by 3 ¼ lengths last time at Windsor, and should have more to come. She travelled very well that day up with the pace and I expect more of the same here. Her only defeat came to Shades Of Blue, who ran well here in the Queen Mary on Wednesday, but has clearly progressed since that debut run and so with the continued upward curve should have a big say here.

 

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 – Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

14/15 – Previous distance (6f) winners
12/15 – Failed to win their last race
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Previous Group Race winners
11/15 – Had run at Ascot before
9/15 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/15 – Winning favourite (joint)
5 of the last 13 winners were Irish-bred
7 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
6 of the last 13 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

TQ VERDICT: Onto the main race of the day and we should be in for a cracker. The Aussie Group One winner – Redkirk Warrior adds a bit of international spice to the race and with connections booking Frankie Dettori to ride then this this 7 year-old is sure to be popular in the betting. However, despite coming here in red-hot form after G1 wins at Flemington over 5f and 6f, with 12 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger then he’s got this trend to overcome. The same applies to last year’s winner THE TIN MAN, but I still feel there is some value in siding with him though. This James Fanshawe-trained 6 year-old returned to the track better than ever at Windsor last month to beat another of today’s runners – D’bai – by ¾ of a length and that run should have put him spot-on for this. The quick ground will be fine and with some speedballs in the race then everything could be set up nicely again for this hold-up performer – the yard also took this in 2011. Of course, all eyes will be on the 125-rated Harry Angel and with a fair amount in-hand based on the ratings then he’s going to take some beating. He got back to winning ways with an easy 2 length win at Duke Of York Stakes last month and should be turned to the max for this. However, his form at Ascot is a good enough reason as any to take him on. He’s raced here four times now and been beaten every time! Three of those 4 track runs also came over this 6f trip while at the time of writing the Clive Cox yard are just 3 from 42 – not exactly stats of a yard in flying form. Of the rest, the Aidan O’Brien camp will be looking to add to their 2010 win in the race and of their three runners – MERCHANT NAVY – looks their main hope with Ryan Moore riding. He beat stablemate Spirit Of Valor last time at the Curragh and back in March was neck third to the Aussie runner – Redkirk Warrior – when trained Down Under. His career runs over this 6f trip read 1-1-1-3-1 so it’s hard not seeing him involved. The US yard of Wesley Ward also have a chance with Bound For Nowhere in the race. He heads off on a three timer and has only had six career runs so should have more to come. But both his runs outside the US have seen him finish unplaced so still has a bit to prove on the travelling front for me. If Harry Angel can put his poor Ascot form behind him then he’ll be hard to beat, but the better value can come from the consistent Merchant Navy and last year’s winner The Tin Man.

 

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
18/18 – Had no more than 4 runs that season¬¬
17/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Finished sixth or better last time out
16/18 – Had won a race over 6f before
15/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/18 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/18 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
8/18 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1
10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure draw
7 of the last 8 winners came from a double-figure stall
6 of the last 7 runnings – the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 7 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 30 winners returning a double-figure price

TQ VERDICT: 28 runners heading to post here so hopefully a good race for the trends to help us narrow down the big field. With ALL of the last 18 winners having raced no more than four times that season then this is a key place to start and a trend that will hopefully knock a fair few out. 15 of the last 18 winners were also aged 4 or 5 years-old too, while 10 of the last 12 successful horses carried 9-3 or less in weight. With 28 runners then it’s no real shock that double-figure drawn horses have a good record too – winning 7 of the last 8 renewals. Taking all these into account, there are several interesting ones – like proven course winners Dreamfield and Undrafted,who come from the powerful John Gosden and Wesley Ward yards, plus we can’t ignore last year’s winner – Out Do – who will be looking to become the last horse to win back-to-back Wokingham’s since Selhurst Park Flyer in 1997-1998. Out Do is rated just a pound higher this year and has a similar draw this time too – was in stall 1 last season and comes out of stall 2 here.Certainly one for the shortlist. There has been a lot of money for the Gosden runner – Dreamfield – who comes here unbeaten (3-from-3) and has a CD win to his name too. Lightly-raced so there should be more to come and connections clearly feel he will be better than a handicapper in time so could easily bolt-up here and move onto better things. But he certainly doesn’t look any value in the betting for a race as competitive as this and despite looking to hold every chance is overlooked as being poor value in the betting. However, sticking with the main age, weight and draw trends, plus if we also add in having won over this 6f trip and also having raced no more than four times this season, then three stand out – MAJOR JUMBO, GILGAMESH and BRIAN THE SNAIL. Major Jumbo, who comes from draw 26, has been running well in a lot of these big-field handicap sprints this season and is weighted to be bang there again. He’s not finished out of the first four in his last five starts and Jamie Spencer is an eye-catching jockey booking. Gilgamesh has done most of his running over 7f but has won over 6f in the past too. This lightly-raced 4 year-old has won 5 of his 9 starts and despite racing off a career-high rating comes here in tip-top form after a decent 7f win at York last time. The final one – Brian The Snail – was touted up a few seasons ago as being a lot better than a handicapper after running at Listed and Group Two level. He’s yet to hit those heights and has clearly had some issues but he bounced back to winning form last time at Doncaster over this 6f and seemed to win with a bit to spare. Up 5lbs here but did it nicely that day and it might be worth chancing that his problems are now behind him and he can finally fulfil the promise he showed after winning his first three races of his career. The final one to get a mention is TOMMY TAYLOR. Why, well horses from stall 15 have been placed in 3 of the last 7 runnings. He’ll also be a lot fitter for his return run last month after 217 days off and ran well at a higher level than this last season. Trip and ground are fine, plus draw 15 will clearly give him more options than most.

 

5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/15 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
9/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before
4/15 – Won by a NH yard
4/15 – Irish-trained winners
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
8 of the last 12 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
11 of the last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
10 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Fun Mac was fifth in the race 12 months ago and after a fine second in the Chester Cup last time can be expected to go well again. The form of that run has since been franked with the winner going in again so this Hughie Morrison-trained runner looks a solid call to be involved yet again. Nearly Caught also comes from the Morrison yard and is no stranger to running well in these staying type races at the Royal Meeting so is another that can’t be totally rules out. Pallasator will have it’s supporters too in what is a rare runner at the meeting for the Gordon Elliott yard. This versatile horse has won two of his last three races over hurdles and used to perform on the flat at decent level. I think the John Gosden runner Glencanam Glory has looked a bit one-paced in recent runs over shorter so this 2m5f trip looks a good call. However, for me he’s still not quite built on some promising runs from last season so still have something to prove. Renneti, Light Pillar and Uber Cool can be considered from the bigger-priced runners but I think this race revolves around last year’s runner-up Thomas Hobson and COUNT OCTAVE. The first-named will be popular with Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore teaming up. He was a good winner of the Ascot Stakes at the meeting last season but only just failed to follow-up four days later. There’s a chance two quick races there took their toll, but this race is also over 1 ½ furlongs more. This time he comes here fresh and has gone well off a break so he’s going to be hard to beat. But being a Moore/Mullins horse he’s also going to be no value. With that in mind, the Andrew Balding yard, that took this in 2013 might have the answer in COUNT OCTAVE. This 4 year-old is only rated 3lbs lower than Thomas Hobson but also receives a pound. He was beaten just 7 lengths behind Stradavarius last time in the Yorkshire Cup and was a respectable sixth in the St Leger last season. He’ll need to prove he can stay this extreme trip but is sure to be ridden with that in mind. But if he’s still in the mix with a furlong or two to go then his proven flat speed will be a big plus and that could easily blow these more staying types away. He looks the value call against Thomas Hobson if you are prepared to take the chance on him getting the trip.