2018 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 22nd June)

2018 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 22nd June)

Into DAY FOUR at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Albany Stakes and the King Edward VII Stakes, but the two Group Ones on the card – the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes stand out as the feature contests – Did you know that 14 of the last 15 Coronation Stakes winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 – Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)


Albany Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
15/15 – Never raced at Ascot before
14/15 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
14/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Won their previous race
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
3/15 – Ran at Sandown last time
4/15 – Previous winner over 6f
4/15 – Winning favourites
The last 12 winners came from double-figure stalls
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11-14 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: The French yard of Matthieu Palussiere won this race 12 months ago so the fact they are sending over another this year is a good place to start – they run No More Regrets. However, for me, this 2 year-old was a beaten favourite over 6f last time in France so does have a bit to find and is now upped from Listed to Group Three company so I’m happy to look elsewhere. We’ve also got another US runner from the Wesley Ward camp that often do so well with their juveniles at the meeting, but so far this year are not really firing with their runners. Stillwater Cove is the filly in question for the Ward yard this year and she won her only start at Keenland after making all over 4 ½ furlongs. She was, however, sent off a short favourite that day and in the end only just hung on – will this stiff track and the extra ½ furlong suit? I’m not so sure! The Mark Johnston- trained Main Edition has done little wrong in winning her two starts at an aggregate of around 7 lengths. This is a big step up in grade though so more is needed but she’s looked a useful sort that that caught the eye how she travelled during her races – she’s certainly one for the shortlist. The Johnston team also run Octave, who has Jim Crowley booked to ride. The Charles Hills camp are 0 from 26 with their 2 year-olds here at the track so their Hawayel is overlooked, but in contrast the John Gosden (21%), Michael Bell (21%), Charlie Appleby (25%) and Aidan O’Brien (27%) yards all have much better records with their youngsters at Ascot. Bell runs Pretty Pollyanna, who won well on debut and can’t be ruled out, while Frankie and John Gosden, who have already had a cracking meeting, team-up with Angel’s Hideaway, who broke her duck at the second attempt at Haydock last time. O’Brien won this in 2016 and in Fairyland and Just Wonderful he’s got two decent chances again. Fairyland is already a Listed winner after going in at the Curragh last time out and looks a big player. However, with slightly more trends – like draw, month of birth and recent form – on her side, plus the 25% strike-rate at the track with his 2 year-olds, then the Charlie Appleby-trained LA PELOSA might be worth chancing. Yes, this Feb-born 2 year-old filly only won a much lower graded race at Kempton on debut but she did it very well (3 lengths). She’s also been handed draw 11 and with ALL of the last 12 winners coming from a double-figure draw then this looks a big plus. The yard knows the time-of-day with their youngsters so this one is clearly thought to be above average, while the stable have already been on the scoresheet at the meeting this week.

 

3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
14/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
12/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/15 – Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
5/15 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-8 (inc)
11 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: The first thing to note here is that we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings – with that in mind the John Gosden runner – Raa Atollmight be overlooked. Yes, Frankie is riding and despite that stat this 3 year-old is still going to be popular in the betting. The Stoute yard have a fine record in this race and they will be looking to farm a Royal winner here with ELECTOR. This 3 year-old is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field (3 runs) and was only 1 ½ lengths behind Raa Atoll last time at Nottingham. With the expected improvement there should not be a lot between the two and being a past course winner, albeit over 7f, then this is another plus – of the bigger priced runners I think he can go well for a yard that know how to win this race. Old Persian is a consistent sort and will fly the blue flag of Godolphin, but I feel he needs another step up after only just scraping home in a Listed race last time. Wells Farhh Go wasn’t disgraced when sixth in the Dante last time out and may well do better now upped in trip, however, the powerful Aidan O’Brien team are mob-handed again here with three good chances and they look to set the standard. Giuseppe Garibaldi looks an improver after two recent wins, including a Listed success over this trip last time and is actually one of just two proven winners over this trip in the field (Raa Atoll is the other). He can go well. Delano Roosevelt was last seen running sixth in the Epsom Derby so that form would surely see him go very close now down in grade and has since been franked with Kew Gardens, who also ran down the field in the Derby, winning here earlier in the week. But, for me, ROSTROPOVICH could be the answer from the O’Brien trio. This 3 year-old ran ok to be beaten just 5 lengths in the French Derby last time but the much quicker ground this time will be more to his liking. He won easily the time before over 1m2f at Chester in the Dee Stakes and this Frankel colt is well worth a crack over further. I expect him to be ridden to get the trip and, yes, there is a small unknown here, but his form on good ground reads well and that will certainly help his stamina in lasting this longer distance.

 

3.40 – The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

Only 3 previous runnings
Caravaggio won the 2017 running for trainer Aidan O’Brien
Quiet Reflection won the 2016 running for trainer Karl Burke
Muhaarar won the 2015 running for trainer Charles Hills

TQ VERDICT: The newest race to the Royal Meeting as we are only in it’s fourth running. A cracking addition to the week though and a chance to see some of the sprinting stars of the future strutting their stuff. It’s also a much more competitive race than we’ve had in recent years, with most of the ‘big gun’ yards on show. Frankie and John Gosden will be popular teaming up with Emblazoned, while Sir Michael Stoute has Eqtidaar and the Godolphin boys run Roussel. Equilateral will certainly be popular after his 8 length romp at Doncaster last time but this is a big step up and I’d be concerned the Hills yard are just 3 from 40 with their 3 year-olds here. Aidan O’Brien has an army too – Fleet Review, Actress and Sioux Nation, with the last-named looking their main hope after running well in the Group One Middle Park Stakes last season at HQ. He’s returned this season in winning form too and is also a proven course winner. Heartache is another course winner but seems to have lost her way a bit since landing the Queen Mary here and the Clive Cox yard are a poor 1 from 34 with their 3 year-olds at the track. Laugh A Minute comes from the Roger Varian yard that do ok with this age group here, but I would have been sweeter on his chance had there been a bit more rain. So, that leaves us with SANDS OF MALI and INVINCIBLE ARMY.This pair finished first and second (separated by just a nose) at Haydock in the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes last time out and that sets a decent level of form. Sands Of Mali came out on top that day and was also a good winner of the Gimcrack last season at York. Invincible Army is also a proven course and distance winner and has certainly improved again this season so there is every chance this pair will be bang in the thick of things again.

 

4.20 – Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
11/16 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
8/16 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/16 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
7/16 – Were unplaced last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/16 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
11 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just two horses placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (3)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Onto the Coronation Stakes and with no winners from stall 1 in the last 12 years then the well-fancied Aidan O’Brien runner – Clemmie – has this negative stat to overcome. Rated 114 then she’s one of the highest in the field but was firmly put in her place last time in the 1,000 Guineas behind Alpha Centauri (7 ¾ lengths) so really there is no reason to suggest the O’Brien horse can turn that big a gap here. That was Clemmie’s first try over a mile so the jury must still be out regarding the trip and if we add in the draw 1 stat then I’m happy to take her on. Alpha Centauri did it well that last day at the Curragh and clearly enjoyed the step up to a mile for the first time. Draw 9 looks ideal and so does the ground – she sets a fair standard. The unbeaten Tepal is another to consider after winning the French 1,000 Guineas last time. That took her tally to 3-from-3 but she only just got home by a short-neck so will this stiffer track suit. So, in the battle of the Guineas winners I’m happy to stick with the English winner – BILLESDON BROOK. Rated 115, he’s the highest in the field and despite causing a 66/1 shock in that race he still had a lot of useful sorts in behind, including Laurens, who has since franked the form by winning twice in France. The fourth, Wild Illusion, also did the form no harm when running second in the Oaks at Epsom and really you feel that if this horse was trained by O’Brien or one of the Godolphin handlers he’d not be the price she is. The Hannon team are also no strangers to winning this though – they won the pot in 2013 with Sky Lantern – so with the expected improvement since that Newmarket run I’m happy to remain with the English Guineas form over the French and Irish versions. Of the rest, Capla Temptress can improve on her recent fourth, but of the bigger priced runners it’s interesting that Sir Michael Stoute pitches VERACIOUS at this level on her first run back for 252 days, while a certain Frankie Dettori rides too! She was last seen romping away with a maiden at HQ over 7f but being the least exposed runner in the field could certainly have more to come.

 

5.00 – Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m


Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

 

Sandringham Handicap Trends

14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
12/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/16 – Carried 8-11 or more
10/16 – Placed in their previous race
7/16 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
7/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/2

TQ VERDICT: In recent years this has been a good race for jockeys Frankie Dettori and Jamie Spencer – they’ve ridden 6 of the last 16 winners, while Frankie has landed this pot 7 times in all. Spencer rides the Ed Walker-trained AGROTERA, who was a good winner at Windsor last time out and with just three career runs should have more to come. She clearly loved the fast ground last time and will get more of the same here – yes, a step up is needed but she looks a filly on the up. Qazyna will be popular after running third to the useful Lah Ti Dar in a Listed race at HQ last time out but on the flip-side is also likely to be poor value in a race with 24 runners in. Recent scorers Perfection, Di Fede and Desert Diamond are other to note, while the O’Brien runner Hence caught the eye in winning well at the Curragh last time. The Charlie Appleby-trained POETIC CHARM is one that looks interesting though. She’s won two of her three starts and despite not being seen since last September we can be assured the yard will have her primed to go well. All her running to-date has been over 7f but breeding suggests this step up to a mile is a plus too. William Buick, who is having a good week, takes the ride. Finally, I’ve already mentioned the good record Frankie has in this race, so his mount BETTY F is the other runner to have on your side. Trained by Jeremy Noseda, that also do well here with their 3 year-olds (22%). She tries a mile for the first time but wasn’t disgraced in the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f last season so this drop into a handicap should make life a lot easier and is expected to be latched onto by punters of the bigger priced runners.

 

5.35 – Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/15 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
12/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/15 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
8/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/15 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 6 of last 7 runnings)
5/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: The first thing to note here is that all of the last 15 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5 years-old. It’s also worth noting that races over this 1m4f trip what have 16+ runners in have a decent stalls bias to take into account. Horses drawn 1-9 (inc) are just 4 from 170! This is backed up with 11 of the last 12 winners of this race coming from a double-figure stall! With that in-mind the horses drawn 1-9 here are overlooked – Grey Britain (1), Clear Skies (2), Plutonian (3), Sauter (4), Count Calabash (5), Cardon Dating (6), Nayel (7), Sir Chauvelin (8) and Walton Street (9). If you like the course and distance angle then Appeared and Manjaam fit the bill here and command respect based on that. The 4 year-old Dash Of Spice is another that ticks a lot of the main trends and after a string of first and seconds looks a big player after his 6 length romp at Epsom last time. He is, however, 11lbs higher this time and in a race with 22 runners looks no value at all, despite having an obvious-looking chance. So, looking at the key age and draw trends – CROWNED EAGLE, THUNDERING BLUE, EYNHALLOW, HAMADA, MANJAAM and GUNS OF LEROS look the ones to focus on. All six are respected but for the sake of sticking my neck out – THUNDERING BLUE and HAMADA – the ones that interest me most. The 5 year-old Thundering Blue will have every assistance from the saddle with Frankie Dettori riding but I was really taken by the way he powered clear at York last time over 1m2f. This will be his first try over 1m4f, but he certainly wasn’t stopping last time and loved the quick ground. A 7lb rise makes life harder but this will only be his third run this season and should have much more to come over this new trip. The other pick – Hamada – heads here on a three-timer after wins at York and Wolverhampton and a 4lb rise for the last of those looks fair. He’s only had five career runs so more should be in the offering and is yet to finish out of the first three. Draw 17 looks ideal and the Charlie Appleby team are already having a decent time of it this week at the meeting.