Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY THREE (Fri 11th May 18)

Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY THREE (Fri 11th May 18)

As we head into the last day of the Chester May Meeting we’ve the three-day highlight with the Chester Cup now being run on the Friday. Plenty of key trends to take in ahead the big race – like, did you know 15 of the last 16 Chester Cup winners were aged 7 or younger, while 11 of the last 16 came from stalls 7 or lower and carried 9-2 or less!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TRAINERS-QUOTES with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – Good luck!

 

CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)


1.50 – Crabbie’s Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV

14/16 – Had won over this trip (7 1/2f) before
14/16 – Didn’t win their last race
13/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Had a previous run that season
13/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
12/16 – Had run before at Chester
11/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Came from stall 5 or higher
7/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/16 – Horses placed from stall 1
5/16 – Won by the favourite
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/16 – Winning horses from stall 1
Sound Advice won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

 

TQ VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners aged 4 or 5 then this is a key trend to take into account – of the 16 runners then that would leave just seven – Mickey, War Department, Penwortham, Mazyoun, Calder Prince, South Seas and Arcanda. Being over 7 1/2f then it’s another race that a low draw is deemed to be key but the stats slightly suggest otherwise. We’ve only had 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 16 years, while 10 of the last 16 hailed from stalls 5 or higher. With 13 of the last 16 also winning with 8-10 or more then this gives a further plus to the top 7 on the card. Taking all these key trends into account the Andrew Balding-trained SOUTH SEAS (e/w) catches the eye. The yard also boasts a 24% record with their older horses at the track (the best on offer here), while this drop back into handicap company should be a lot easier for a horse that had been running in some hot Group Ones. He’s been gelded since his last run so there is every chance this has helped calm him down, plus the yard have history in the race – winning it in 2014. Trip and ground are also fine, draw 9 doesn’t look bad based on the past trends, while he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past so the 362 day break isn’t too much of a worry. The Richard Fahey team are another that have done well in the race – winning it in 2009 and 2011 – so their course and distance winner – Penwortham – is another to note. The yard are having a good time of it at the meeting this week and this one runs in the Dr Koukash colours that love having winners at the track. Fahey also runs Rene Mathis, who was 4th in the race in 2016, for the same owner. Explain, Arcanda and Above the Rest are other proven course winners but might all have a bit to prove over this trip. However, one horse that doesn’t have anything to prove here is the current champ of this race – SOUND ADVICE (e/w). This 9 year-old does fall down some of the key trends like age and draw, but he defied them last year so is certainly worth having an interest in again. This 9 year-old won this race off a pound higher mark 12 months ago from stall 5 so has no excuses. Draw 2 on paper looks decent but he’s often held up a bit so that might not matter as jockey Phillip Makin can just get a position on the rail and come with a run turning from home. Yes, by doing that he’ll need a bit of luck in-running too but he’s sure to be well tuned-up for a tilt at this race again so will certainly be on my radar here.

 

2.25 – Sportingbet Huxley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV

15/16 – Aged either a 4 or 5 year-old
14/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/16 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
12/16 – Had a previous race that season
12/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winners from between stalls 1-4
9/16 – Winning favourites
9/16 – Failed to win their previous race
6/16 – Returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
5/16 – Ran in the John Porter at Newbury before winning this
5/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/16 – Had raced at Chester before
5/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: Ryan Moore has ridden 5 winners of this race in the last 16, including 12 months ago for trainer Aidan O’Brien, so with the pair teaming up again on War Decree this one is sure to have it’s supporters. This 112-rated colt has been running in some hot Group One races of late so the drop back to a Group Two will help. We can also expect him to be a lot fitter for his last run in Dubai – his last three runs outside Group One company read 2-1-6-1 so that must give him a fair chance. Forest Ranger is closely rated with War Decree on 113 and was a nice winner on his return run in the Group Three Earl Of Sefton Stakes last month at Newmarket. This is another rise up in grade though so this Richard Fahey-trained 4 year-old will need another step forward and although respected might just find one or two too good for me. Convey represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard that have a cracking record in the race – they’ve won 5 of the last 16 – so this 6 year-old is expected to put up a bold bid. He’s got some decent Group Three form and certainly wasn’t disgraced in the Winter Derby when a close fourth back in February. On the official ratings he’s got a tiny bit to find with the likes of War Decree and Forest Ranger, but is also rated 6lbs lower than EMINENT, who is the highest-rated in the field and gets the call. This Martyn Meade-trained 4 year-old had a top season last term – running a close fourth in the Epsom Derby, plus wasn’t beaten far in the Eclipse and then rounded-off the campaign with an excellent third in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He’s a Group Two winner too and having won first time out for the past two seasons then the 244 day break is not a concern. He looks set for another big season in these top middle distance races and connections look to have given him every opportunity to get off the mark in 2018 too. Of the rest, Frankuus can’t be totally ruled out and is clearly better than his recent 17 length 6th to Forest Ranger last time but he’s won just one of his last 10 so that would be a concern.

 

3.00 – Sustainable Group (UK) Ltd Handicap Handicap Cl2 5f16y ITV

15/16 – Finished fourth or better last time out
15/16 – Had won over 5f before
15/16 – Came from stalls 1-8
14/16 – Had a previous run that season
14/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Carried 8-13 or more
8/16 – Had run at Chester before
5/16 – Won their previous race
4/16 – Won by the favourite
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Trainer Tom Dascombe has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Only 2 horses from a double-figure stall have been placed in the last 16 years
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
TQ VERDICT: With 14 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 1-8 then in this 12 horse race this would be a negative for Super Kid (9), Titi Makfi (10), Gulf Of Poets (11) and Speed Company (12). In fact, only 2 horses from a double-figure draw have been placed in the last 16 years so this is a further negative for this trio. Titi Makfi, Dark Red and Not So Sleepy are the three proven course and distance winners in the field so would command respect based on that though, while, in terms of age, 80% of the last 10 winners were 4 or 5 years-old so if this is to be repeated then of the 12 runners only Pivoine (4), Cosmeapolitan (5), Petite Jack (5), Speed Company (5) and Titi Makfi (4) qualify. Of those five Titi Maki and Speed Company are overlooked as they will need to overcome high draws in 10 and 12 so that leaves us with PIVOINE, COSMEAPOLITAN and PETITE JACK. The first-named – Pivoine – is another from the Andrew Balding yard that have a decent 24% record with their older horses here. He gets in with just 8-8 and despite running poorly last time out that was his first run back off a break and should be a lot better for it. He also had to carry 9-7 that day so this lightweight will help, as will draw 3. Horses from stall 3 have a good record in the race too – they’ve finished first or second in 9 of the last 10 runnings – Oisin Murphy rides. Cosmeapolitan is a rare runner at the track for trainer Alan King but he has more and more flat horses these days and with just 8-11 he’s another to note. Draw 7 looks ok too and Fran Berry has been booked to ride. The drop back in trip should be fine and prior to his last run at Newcastle, where the track might not have suited, the horse had been running well at Lingfield and Kempton. Finally, Petite Jack will come from stall 1 and around any trip here at Chester that always helps. Last year’s winner came from this draw and so did the 2011 winner. After a busy spell on the AW this winter this 5 year-old returns to the turf on a 10lb lower mark than he’s been running off of late so that gives him a great chance. He was also a Listed winner on the AW over the winter and has been freshened up with a 42 day break with this race in mind. Yes, he might have a bit to prove on the turf (0 from 5) but he’s lightly raced on the race so there should be more to come with the drying ground also in his favour.
 

3.35 – Betway Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f147y ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/16 – Officially rated between 93-99
12/16 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
11/16 – Carried 9-2 or less
11/16 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/16 – Won from stall 7 or lower
10/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
8/16 – Favourites were unplaced
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Irish bred
3/16 – Had won at the track before
3/16 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
2/16 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Won by the favourite
2/16 – Won their previous race

Key Chester Cup Stats
The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 6 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1
4 of the last 8 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 6 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 3 of the last 10 winners

TQ VERDICT: To Follow…………………………..