Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY TWO (Thurs 11th May 18)

Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY TWO (Thurs 11th May 18)

It’s DAY TWO of the Chester May Meeting this Thursday (10th May 2018) so we’ve four more LIVE ITV races to take in. The Dee Stakes and the Group Three Ormonde Stakes take centre stage today – did you know 15 of the last 16 Ormonde Stakes winners returned 7/2 or shorter? Suggesting this is a race punters tend to get right!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here TRAINERS-QUOTES with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – Good Luck!

 

CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)


1.50 – Gateley PLC Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

10/10 – Won from stall 7 or lower
10/10 – Had won over 5f before
10/10 – Had won between 2-6 times before
10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
8/10 – Had raced at Chester before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Came from stall 5 or lower
7/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Officially rated between 87-90
7/10 – Finished in the top 7 last time out
4/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 1-4
El Astronaute won the race in 2017
Sir Maximilian won this in 2014
Confessional won this in 2012
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: The John Quinn-trained El Astronaute took this race 12 months ago so is certainly a good place to start. This 5 year-old was sent off the well-backed 2/1 favourite that day but this time does have two big factors to overcome. Firstly, he’s rated 8lbs higher, plus he had the perfect draw in 1 last years – he’s got 9 this time. All of the last 7 winners of this race came from stall 7 or lower, while with 8 of the last 9 hailing from stalls 1-4 then really you can do little wrong by just splitting stakes (if the prices allow) across this quartet – A Momentofmadness (1), Doctor Sardonicus (2), Tavener (3) and Powerallied (4). The Dave Griffiths-trained Tavener is a horse that likes to get on with things from the front too so draw 3 looks ideal for him and he can be expected to make a bold bid coming here in tip-top shape from a busy winter – his only previous run at the track saw him finish third. A Momentofmadness is back down to his last winning mark and can’t be ruled out but this is actually his first run here at Chester, while we’ve actually only seen one winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings. So, of the four, POWERALLIED and DOCTOR SARDONICUS get the call. The first-named is a proven course and distance winner here and despite a 222 day break is sure to be fit and well ahead of this. Draw 4 is perfect as his last win at the track came from this stall and his overall form figures at the track read well – 4-1-4-3-3-1-2-11-6-2-7-7-1. The ground is fine too, plus jockey Patrick Mathers also has a fine record on the 5 year-old 2-2-1, oh and the horse gets in here with just 8-5 to carry. The other selection – Doctor Sardonicus – is the highest-rated in the field on 102 but heads here in top form after an easy 2 length win at Wolverhampton on his first run for the yard. The Tom Daascombe camp have a fine record at the track with their runners and as mentioned above draw 2 is a big plus as this is another horse that likes to blast out of the gates. Of the rest, Confessional is a past winner of this race, but that came way back in 2012 – he’s now 11 years-old and draw 11 makes things very hard. Sir Maximilian is another previous winner of this race (2014) but he’s another that is not getting any younger at 8 and draw 8 is not ideal either.

 

2.25 – Homeserve Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV

15/16 – Had not run at Chester before
14/16 – Yet to win over this trip before
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Favourites finished in the frame
13/16 – Came from stall 3 or higher
11/16 – Failed to win another race after taking this
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Had a previous run that season
8/16 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby
6/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Won by the favourite
6/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
Only Kris Kin in 2003 went onto win this and then the Epsom Derby in the last 15 years – last year’s winner – Cliffs Of Moher, went onto run 2nd in the Epsom Derby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Kris Kin was the last Dee Stakes winner (2003) to go on and land the Epsom Derby so there are probably better trial races around these days, but we dd see last year’s winner – Cliffs Of Moher – go onto run second on the Downs. Having said that we still have a decent contest in prospect. Aidan O’Brien sends over two runners for a race he loves to target – he’s won the prize six times in the last 16 years. Kenya is already a Group Three winner so this drop into Listed grade will help his cause but he does have to carry a 5lb penalty for that. A recent third at Leopardstown should have him spot-on for this but with all his races over 7f then this step p to 1m2 1/2f is a big of an unknown. Breeding suggests it might be a mix bag regarding the trip with a fair amount of stamina and sprinting in his pedigree – we’ll have to see which one comes out on top but connections clearly feel he’s good for the extra yardage. Their other runner is the Ryan Moore-ridden Rostropovich, who has decent form in higher grades too. He’s a Frankel colt so is another that might have a few small questions to answer regarding the trip. Yes, both O’Brien runners have to be respected due to their fine record in the race but with both having some negative then I’m happy to look elsewhere this year. My Lord And Master was a closing second at Epsom last time out over this trip and with just three career runs then more can be expected from this William Haggas-trained runner. Godolphin’s RASTRELLI is the only proven distance winner after winning a Conditions race well last time at Newbury. This will be harder but he’s certainly got no stamina issues and we can expect connections to make full use of that – he’s the first one for the shortlist. Fortune’s Pearl is the highest-rated in the field but is another that has to prove this longer trip is within range – breeding suggests it might be a close call, but the Andrew Balding yard boast a decent 24% record with their older horses at the track so this one commands respect too. However, the other that’s of interest is the Tom Dascombe trained FINNISTON FARM. Yes, this yard is better known for their sprinters but this 3 year-old ran on really well over 7f last time when second at Newmarket to suggest this 1m2f trip is worth a crack. He was a fair 6th (not beaten far) in the Superlative Stakes last season over 7f and returned with a fair second at HQ. Like a lot of others in the race a lot of trust has to be taken on him getting home but the tight Chester track should help and with his Dam’s sire being the 1995 Derby winner – Slip Anchor – then there is certainly hope we’ll get the extra trip.

 

3.00 – Abbey Logistics Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV

15/16 – Hadn’t raced at Chester before
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had a previous run that season
12/16 – Came between stalls 2-7
10/16 – Carried 9-0 or less
10/16 – Finished third or better last time out
9/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Another tricky handicap to unravel here but with 13 of the last 16 winners having had a previous run that season, plus 12 of the last 16 coming from stalls 2-7 then this helps whittle the field down a bit. Add in that 10 of the last 16 winners carried 9-0 or less and also finished third of better last time out, then these trends are also of interest. The horses in stalls 2-7 are Another Batt (2), Vale Of Kent (3), Porth Swtan (4), Sha La La La Lee (5), Dragon’s Tail (6) and Mr Top Hat (7). If we add in the weight and recent form trends then of those six only VALE OF KENT and Porth Swtan fit the bill. The Mark Johnston team also won this in 2011 so from stall three their Vale Of Kent makes even more appeal. This 3 year-old has won three of his 5 starts and was only just touched-off last time at Wolverhampton. He’s only a pound higher here but from draw 3 and with just 8-10 in weight in this better race then he looks to have a lot going for him. Paul Hanagan has been booked to ride the Charles Hills-trained Porth Swtan, who was a nice winner on his return run at Newmarket last month. He’s only up 3lbs for that and despite more needed in this higher grade has only 8-7 to carry, while draw 4 looks ideal. He’s also got the added bonus of having tasted the tight turns of Chester when running a close second here over 7f last August. The only negative would be the Hills team are only 1 from 29 with their 3 year-olds at the track! Of the rest, ANOTHER BATT can’t be ruled out after an improved third at HQ last time out. He’s dropped a pound for that and this ease in grade should see him go close from stall 2 – he’s a horse that likes to race up with the pace so he might prove hard to peg back around this sharp venue and rates the second pick in the race with only really the weight trend going against him. The Charlie Appleby team are in fine order at the moment and also boast an impressive 33% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, so their Being There is another to note but he will have to come from stall 9 if he’s to win this. Trainer Ed Dunlop has a good Chester record with his limited runners (20% overall strike-rate) so his Tadleel would appeal based on this, however, he’s another that might have to come around the houses in stall 11 – and that won’t be easy. Finally, trainer Tom Dascombe often does well at the track so his Dragons Tail, who is the only proven course winner in the field, and Sha La La La Lee are others to consider – both also have fair draws in 6 and 5 so can go well but I would be a tad concerned about Dragons Tail getting the trip as both times he’s tried 7f he’s seemed to fade in the closing stages.

 

3.35 – Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV

15/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
11/16 – Didn’t win their previous race
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/16 – Had a previous run that season
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/16 – Won by the favourite
7/16 – Had run before at Chester
5/16 – Ran in the John Porter (Newbury) last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 2/1

 

TQ VERDICT: Only six runners here so we can expect tactics to play a big part here. Muntahaa and Duretto are the only course winners with the first-named also a course and distance winner. The two were also only separated by a short-head here in a Listed race a few summers ago but really based on the official ratings then all the runners look to have the Aidan O’Brien-trained IDAHO to beat. With 11 of the last 16 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then it’s only Idaho, Muntahaa and Danehill Kodiac that fit the bill – they are all 5 year-olds. Yes, Idaho hasn’t won in six races but he’s been pitched at the highest level so will find this drop back into a Group Three a lot easier. He landed the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes last summer and based on the ratings has 7lbs in-hand on the rest of the field. The O’Brien yard have also won this recently in 2008, 2011 and 2012. Dylan Mouth and Elidor make up the field but both look to have a fair bit to find on the ratings. For the places, Danehill Kodiac would have been on interest based on his second to the improving Defoe last time out in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury but it won’t be easy having to give 3lbs away to the rest of the field. Therefore, Muntahaa can, therefore, give the selection most to think about. He represents last year’s winning yard (John Gosden) and having since been gelded over the winter there is every chance he’ll have more to give this season. His course and distance form is a plus and the Gosden camp are sure to have him ready to rumble despite a 301 day break. Jim Crowley rides.