Free Horse Racing Tip and Trends: Fri 1st June 2018

Free Horse Racing Tip and Trends: Fri 1st June 2018

It’s the opening day of the two-day Epsom Derby Meeting this Friday (1st June 2018) and we’ve FIVE LIVE races to take in!

The Investec Oaks at 4.30pm is the third English Classic of the season and, of course, the highlight on the day’s action as some of the best 3 year-old fillies in training lock horns, while there is also a top supporting card that includes the Group One Coronation Cup. 

Did you know? 14 of the last 16 horses from stall 1 were unplaced in the Epsom Oaks?

Like all big race days we’ve got the main trends and stats to apply to the race. We’re sure these will help point you find the best profiles of past winners and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Friday 1st June 2018

Epsom Horse Racing Trends

2.00 – Investec WOODCOTE EBF STAKES (Conditions Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

16/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
13/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs
12/16 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
11/16 – Yet to win over 6f
8/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/16 – Won their previous race
5/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
8 of the last 10 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Some interesting trends here – most notably the Richard Hannon, Mick Channon and Mark Johnston yards having won the race 10 times between them in the last 16 years! All three are represented again this year with Mick Channon running Cotubanama and Jungle Inthebungle, Hannon having It’s The Only Way and Johnston running Marie’s Diamond. All four command respect but with the Johnston camp doing well with their juveniles this season then their MARIE’S DIAMOND gets a positive vote. This March-foaled colt was a good winner on debut at Leicester and despite fading into third next time at Newbury the much quicker ground probably wasn’t ideal. He won on heavy on debut so the soft conditions here will be much more to his liking and it taken to get back to winning ways. Silvestre De Sousa rides too and the champion jockey teamed-up with Johnston to ride the winner of the race 12 months ago too – oh, the yard also boast an impressive 36% strike-rate at the track with their juveniles. Of the rest, Ryan Moore catches the eye riding the Richard Hannon-trained It’s The Only Way, so is sure to be popular, but draw 7 doesn’t look ideal, especially as 12 of the last 16 winners hailed from draws 5 or lower. Another popular jockey booking is Frankie Dettori riding Usain Boat, who is one of just two last-time out winners in the field, and is also the only proven winner over this 6f trip in the line-up. Cosmic Law is the other recent winner and comes down from the powerful Richard Fahey yard. He was a good winner over the stiff 5f at Carlisle last time so this 6f trip looks within range so can’t be discounted either. We can also expect the Brian Meehan-trained Mendoza to have improved from it’s debut third at Newbury last time and from stall 1 he’s got a great starting berth. He’s got some fancy entries later in the season too so is clearly well-regarded and can go well. However, the other main pick is going to be the Charlie Appleby-trained TRUE BELIEF. This 2 year-old was a fair fourth on debut at York but was actually hampered that day so with a bit more luck in-running then can go well. It goes without saying the horse will improve a lot from that opening run and the yard have a nice 22% record with their youngsters at the track.

 

2.35 – INVESTEC CLICK & INVEST MILE (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 114y ITV

13/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Irish bred
10/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Placed last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Carried 9-1 or more
6/15 – Raced at the track before
4/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Godolphin won the race 12 months ago
8 of the last 10 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: This could be another good race for the Mark Johnston yard. They landed the prize in 2009 and 2010 so it’s a contest they love to target while they come here with their horses in tip-top order. With that in-mind their 4 year-old MASHAM STAR gets the call. This tough sort has slipped back down to what looks a very attractive mark (86) after going 8 races without a win. He has been rated as high as 101 in his career at just 4 years-old there is every chance he can find that level again. 12 of the last 15 winners of this race have also been aged 4 or 5 so he ticks that box while a much-improved second last time out at Ayr was a sign he’s returning to form. He’s also run ok at this meeting before and the soft ground is fine. In this better race he’ll also only have 8-10 to carry but as a result gets weight from all the others bar High Acclaim, so seems to have a lot going for him in my book. It’s generally a contest the punters get right – yes, only 3 winning favourites in the last 15 runnings, but the average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2. The hat-trick-seeking Able Jack is another that will catch the eye of punters with three wins from his last four, but they all came on the AW so this return to the turf makes things a lot different. Course winner – King’s Pavilion – is another to note but would have a bit to prove over this trip so is not for me. Donncha has the form to go close but he’s often seen over a straight course in bigger-field handicaps – oh, and he’s also a very hard horse to win with that heads here having not won from his last 20! Local trainer Simon Dow runs Mr Scaramanga but the yard are actually 0-from-29 with their older horses here so he’s overlooked. The David O’Meara camp don’t have much better stats (3 from 29) and send down Mythical Madness, but on a plus they have jockey James Doyle booked to ride and he’s got a stonking 29% record when riding 4+ year-olds here. However, the other one I like here is MEDBURN DREAM. This 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and is actually the only course and distance winner in the field. He acts on all ground and has won of soft here at the track before too. A recent win at Windsor will have him spot-on for this and with that also coming off a 6 month break then he’ll surely have come on for that too. The final icing on the cake is that the Peter Hedger camp boasts an impressive 50% (3 from 6) record with their older horses at the track.  

 

3.10 – INVESTEC CORONATION CUP (Group 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
15/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
11/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (four won)
10/16 – Favourites placed
8/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)
6/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Had run at Epsom before
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2

TQ VERDICT: The 122-rated Hawkbill and Idaho, who is on a mark of 119, are both high class middle distance horses in their own right but really all eyes here will be on CRACKSMAN. John Gosden’s 4 year-old was a close third in the Derby here 12 months ago and also won the Derby Trial at the course last April, so we know the track is fine and since then has recorded cracking efforts in some of the best middle distance races on the calendar. A close second in the Irish Derby was followed by wins in the Great Voltigeur, Prix Niel and the Group One Champions Stakes at Ascot to make it a season to remember for his connections. He returned to the track this season over in France with a smooth win at Longchamp and really, he should be taking this and then going to the very top this season. Rated 130, then Cracksman has got 8lbs in-hand on Hawkbill and is 11lbs higher than recent Chester scorer – Idaho. For me, it looks as if Idaho might want a longer trip than this 1m4f distance as he took a bit of time to get going last time at Chester so the danger can come from Hawkbill. This Godolphin-owned 5 year-old was last seen running away with the Sheema Classic in Dubai and with the second – Poet’s Word – winning last week’s Brigadier Gerard Stakes then the form of that 3 length victory has been franked. Both will set a stern test for Cracksman but it’s hard to see his slightly younger legs not having more to offer – he can take this before having a tilt at other big pots – like the Eclipse Stakes – later in the season.

 

3.45 – INVESTEC WEALTH & INVESTMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f

14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
12/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/15 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/15 – Came from stall 8 or lower
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Rated between 86-97
9/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
5/15 – Had raced at the track before
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Not So Sleepy won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: A very tough and competitive handicap to unravel next. Of the 11 runners we’ve actually got five proven course and distance winners – Dark Red, Banditry, Ajman King, Not So Sleepy, Brorocco, while Emenem is also a course winner but over 1m 1/2f. 11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or lower so that might be seen as a negative for Ajman King (9), Zzoro (10) and Emenem (11). The Andrew Balding yard took this in 2015 and will be trying to follow-up – this time with Brorocco. However, this 5 year-old was only fifth in this race 12 months ago and is actually running off a 3lb higher mark this time. I’ve mentioned the poor Simon Dow strike-rate at the track, despite this being their local venue. They are 0-from-29 with their older horses here so it’s hard to get too excited about Emenem. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the Ed Dunlop-trained Dark Red but although he’s the highest-rated in the field (102) I’d also be a tad concerned he’s been beaten off this rating many times in his recent runs – he’s likely to be thereabouts but is a horse more for a place rather than a win. Banditry is another course and distance winner to note but despite running well to be second at York last time is up another 3lbs for that and would have a bit to prove off this sort of mark. The poor draw is slightly against AJMAN KING but with trainer Roger Varian having a decent 29% record here at the track and this horses winning very well here over 1m2f last time then it’s hard to ignore his chance – he’s certainly one for the shortlist. He’s a winner on soft ground too and with only six career outings should have a lot more to come. I expect the consistent Another Touch to not be far away too but is not the easiest horse to win, while Martha has good AW form of later but would need to transfer that to the turf. So, that leaves us with NOT SO SLEEPY. This horse actually took this prize 12 months ago and getting in off the same mark must give him a great shout again. Yes, he flopped in the Lincoln but that was his first run for almost 3 months and really over a trip that is a bit on the short side for him. He ran much better last time at Chester when third (of 11) over this sort of trip and with winning form on soft ground then any more rain is fine. Draw 5 is not an issue, while Adam Kirby, who was on his back 12 months ago too, returns in the saddle. Kirby boasts an impressive 24% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track too, while his shrewd trainer – Hughie Morrison – does well with his limited runners here as well (25%).

 

4.30 – INVESTEC OAKS (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

16/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
13/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/16 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
10/16 – Favourites that were placed
9/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
4/16 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/16 – Irish-trained winners
2/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/16 – Had run at the course before
0/16 – Had run over 1m4f before
7 of the last 11 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 6 times
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 12.5/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 14 runnings

TQ VERDICT: With Godolphin’s Wild Illusion a running-on fourth in the 1,000 Guineas last time out then she sets a fair standard but it goes without saying this step up to 1m4f is a big question mark. Breeding suggests it’s within range for this Dubawi filly though and with winning form on soft ground then she ticks a lot of boxes. However, she does have some negatives too. 13 of the last 16 winners of the Oaks finished first or second last time out, while horses from stall 1 have actually been unplaced in 14 of the last 16 renewals – let alone win the race! Yes, off a mark of 113 then she sets the standard but I’d have rather seen her over this sort of trip first really – Godolphin will be looking for their first Oaks winner since Kazzia (2002). In contrast to the recent record of the boys in blue in this race, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a much better return in this contest. They won the race six times in total and landed two of the last three. They are mob-handed again here, with recent Cheshire Oaks winner – Magic Wand – looking their main hope. She had another of their runners – Forever Together – 3 ½ lengths back in second that day and should, therefore, be able to confirm that form. Magic Wand looks a big player. Bye Bye Baby and I Can Fly are other O’Brien runners and certainly can’t be ruled out either. These fillies can improve at a rate of knots from these opening races of their 3 year-old careers and Bye Bye Baby is already a Group Three winner on soft ground over 1m2f so commands respect too. However, I can’t help feeling I CAN FLY (e/w) has more to come. She was well-fancied for the 1,000 Guineas after going off 7/1 so that running (11th) surely wasn’t her true self. The step up in trip is an unknown but on breeding it looks the right call. O’Brien is also no stranger to landing this race with his second, or third strings – Was (2012, 20/1) and Qualify (2015, 50/1) are two recent examples of this. The fact she was so well-fancied for the Oaks is a sign the Ballydoyle camp think she’s a bit better than she’s been showing and over this longer trip might just be worth chancing they are right. Of the rest, Perfect Clarity was a good winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial and is the only proven distance winner in the field. This Clive Cox runner is 2-from-2 so far and the way she ran on last time suggests there’s more to come. At least we know she stays, but this will be the softest ground she’s encountered. The other pick though and value call in the race is GIVE AND TAKE (e/w). This 3 year-old was a good winner of the Musidora Stakes last time out and is yet to finish out of the first two from 5 starts. She’s one of the more experienced in the field and did well to still win last time out after being carried right in the final stages. She’s won on good-to-soft ground so that helps and although this is a big step forward the Musidora is often a fair trial ahead of this race – she’s taken to continue her upward progression. Ejtyah was third in the Musidora so has around 2 ½ lengths to make up but the longer trip should help and it’s also worth noting that 50% of the last 14 horses from stall 2 have been placed, so this could be one for you placepot players out there.