Good Friday Racing Tips and Trends from Lingfield (30th March 2018)

Good Friday Racing Tips and Trends (30th March 2018)

Make Friday a ‘Good’ One at Lingfield This Easter Weekend

 All-Weather Championships (Friday 30th March 2018)

The ITV4 cameras head to Lingfield Park this Good Friday (30th March 2018) to take in SIX races from the lucrative All Weather Championships Meeting – Finals Day – and we’ve got it all covered for you with key stats and free horse racing tips for all seven of the Lingfield races.

There are plenty of the power-house flat yards bringing horses to the Surrey venue and it’s no surprise with mouth-watering prize money on offer, including £124k for the winner of the feature race – the Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championship Conditions Stakes.

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we take a look at all the LIVE races from a trends angle, including the best positive and negative trainer/jockey stats – we hope they help point you in the direction of a few winners!

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Tips and Trends

 

1.30 – Sunbets All Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f ATR

One previous running
Trainer Simon Dow won the race 12 months ago
Last year’s winner came from stall 1
Trainer William Haggas has a 36% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Brian Meehan has a 21% record with this older horses at the track
Jockey Cameron Noble has a 33% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 28% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Joshua Bryan is just 1 from 34 riding older horses at the track
Jockey Nicola Currie is just 4 from 55 riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: FORCEFUL APPEAL (33/1)

TQ VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race so no trends really to go on. For what it’s worth the winner 12 months ago came from stall 1 so the Stuart Williams-trained Swift Approval, who is also a proven course and distance winner, will be trying to back that trend up. The Dean Ivory yard are in decent order at the moment so their hat-trick-seeking Eljaddaaf is sure to be popular with a string of recent wins next to it’s name. This 7 year-old has looked as if he’d got a bit more to spare in those recent wins after coming with well-timed runs to get up on the line. He’s up another 4lbs here in a tougher race but due to his excellent current form is certainly a player. Richard Hannon’s Wahash was a good winner here last week and despite being raised 6lbs for that, connections claim 3lbs of that off with Gary Mahon’s allowance. He did it well that day over a mile so we know he stays further than this 7f trip so we can expect connections to make full use of that. Early Morning and Silent Echo are proven course and distance winners so command respect based on that but the two I like here are TAKE THE HELM and GALLIPOLI. The first-named hails from the Brian Meehan yard that boast a decent 21% record at the track with their older horses, while this 5 year-old is a proven course and distance winner too. A recent fourth at Chelmsford should have him spot-on for this, plus he was only beaten a length (4th) in this race last year. Gallipoli will be fitter than most after a close second at Newcastle in a similar race last month and off just 3lbs higher looks interesting. Connections have booked the promising Seb Woods to ride and claim 5lbs, plus draw 4 looks perfect. The yard love to have winners at this meeting so this would have been a target since that reappearance run 37 days ago. Squats comes from the in-form Haggas yard that also boast an impressive 36% record with their older horses here. However, he’s got a bit to prove on the AW for me (0 from 5), while it’s not going to be easy from stall 13! Northern raiders, El Hombre and Mythical Madness are others to note.

 

2.00 – Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m7f169y ITV

Four previous runnings
All four winners aged between 4-6 years-old
2 of the last 4 favourites have won
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
3 of the last 4 winners had won at the track before
2 of the last 4 winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All four past winners finished in the top 3 last time out
The favourite has finished 1st (twice) or 2nd in the last 4 runnings
Watersmeet was second in the race 12 months ago
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 32% record with this older horses at the track
Trainer Ed Dunlop has a 21% record with this older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 31% record with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: WINNING STORY (7/1)

TQ VERDICT: A decent race for the stayers here with some familiar names in attendance. Watersmeet is the only proven course and distance winner in the field, plus was also a fine second in this race 12 months ago. This Mark Johnston-trained 7 year-old has returned to the track this season in rude health – winning three times already this season. He’s a horse that likes to get on with things and has already beaten Curbyourenthusiam and the French raider Funny Kid this year too – albeit both by very short margins. With 5 weeks to freshen up after his last run then he can make another bold bid form the front – plus, 3 of the last 4 winners had won at the track before. With that in mind, the only other proven course winner in the field is the Ed Dunlop-trained RED VERDON. This 5 year-old was an easy 3 length winner here last time over 1m4f and despite having a bit to prove over this 2m trip he’s a classy sort that won a Listed race (1m4f) two starts ago too. James Doyle has a 33% record when riding older horses here too so providing he gets the trip – and connections clearly feel he will – then his proven flat speed could be a big plus if mixed in with stamina. With a 31% strike-rate at the course with his 4+ year-olds then the James Fanshawe-trained Lord George would be a player too, while being the highest-rated in the field – Solider In Action – enters calculations too. However, I expect MOUNTAIN BELL to not be far away either and this will be the other main selection. This 5 year-old gets the mares’ allowance from the others so receives a handy 5lbs from most of the rest. With only 8 career runs then there should also be more to come and after winning well at Newcastle over 2m 1/2f last time then we know he stays the trip. The Ralph Beckett camp also have a 32% record with their runners here while the 104 day break shouldn’t be an issue after winning first time out in two of the last three seasons.

 

2.30 – 32Red All weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f1y ITV

Four previous runnings
No winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
3 of the 4 winners were aged 4 years-old
All four previous winners were Irish-bred horses
Horses from stall 3 have been placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings (2 winners)
Favourites placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners had run at Lingfield before (2 had won)
3 of the last 4 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
Trainer William Haggas has a 36% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 31% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 19% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Chris Dwyer is only 3 from 57 (3%) with his older horses at the track
2017 Winner: REALTRA (6/1)

TQ VERDICT: Just the four past runnings to go on but with 3 of the those four renewals going to 4 year-olds then this age trend is starting to build up – Soul Silver, Rose Berry, Pattie and Diagnostic – are the four 4 year-olds in the race and it’s the last-named – DIAGNOSTIC – that catches the eye the most. The William Haggas team have their horses in fine fettle and with a 36% record with their older horses at the track then everything looks in place for a big run. James Doyle has been booked to ride with the yard keen to build up a relationship with him this season and two recent thirds should be spot-on for this. Yes, another of today’s runners – Summer Icon – beat her a length back in January but that was her first run back for two months and also came in a trappy 4 runner race that wasn’t really run to suit. The bigger field here will help and draw 2 looks ideal. Doyle has also won on the horse when guiding him to an easy 4 length win at Chelmsford last November. Another 4 year-old – Soul Silver – would be interesting after his 2 length beaten of another runner here – Carolinae – and with that coming over a mile then we know she stays further than this 7f trip. However, draw 11 isn’t ideal so he might need a bit of luck from there. Mia Tesoro is the highest-rated runner in the field (97) so based on that is the one to beat. This Charlie Fellowes-trained runner has been running well in Listed company but those runs have been over 1m2f so I’m not sure this 7f trip is totally ideal. So, the other runner of interest for me is ZEST. From the shrewd James Fanshawe camp that boasts a decent 31% record at the track with their older horses. He’s a consistent 5 year that has the form to go close here after beating Summer Icon by ½ a length last time here over a mile. He’s raced 7 times on the AW surfaces and has only been out of the top three once. Her form at Lingfield reads well too – 2-1-1 and despite the drop back to 7f not 100% ideal we at least know she stays further (has won over 1m2f) so we can expect connections to make full use of that.

 

3.05 – Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 6f1y ITV

Trainer Richard Fahey won this race in 2014, 2016 & 2017
Two winning favourites in the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were Irish-bred horses
All four previous winners had raced at the track before
All four winners drawn in stall 7 or lower
Paul Hanagan has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
The last 2 winners came from draw 5
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 24% (17 from 71) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Evans is just 15 from 179 (8%) with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: KIMBERELLA (4/1 jfav)

TQ VERDICT: Another tough race with only 9lbs between the lowest-rated in the field – Atletico (93) – and the highest-rated Gifted Master (112). Being run over 6f then a split decision during the race could be the difference while with all four past winners drawn in stalls 7 or lower then Double Up (8) and City Light (9) have that trend to overcome. Trainer Tom Dascombe does well at the track with his older horses (24%) so his 110-rated KACHY is certainly one for the shortlist. This 5 year-old has a fair draw in 5 and also heads into the race on a three-timer after two nice wins over course and distance. He likes to race up with the pace so expect more of the same here, while he’s actually 2-from-2 on the AW – with both those victories coming here. The horse he only just beat last time – KIMBERELLA – is another to have on your side though. There was only a short head between the two runners last time but, more importantly, this 8 year-old hails from the Richard Fahey camp that have won this race in 2014, 2016 and 2017. Jockey Paul Hanagan has also ridden two of those four Fahey winners and he’s on Kimberella again here. Yes, he was down the field last time at Wolverhampton but that came over 5f – a trip he probably finds a bit on the sharp side now at the age of 8. The return to Lingfield is a big plus, with form figures that read 3-1-1-2 at the Surrey track in recent outings. Finally, draw 4 looks fine after winning from stall 5 last year. As mentioned, Gifted Master is the highest-rated in the field and was an easy winner of a Listed race here back in November. This Hugo Palmer runner sets a decent standard and has won off a break in the past. If fully tuned up, and with £93k on offer then we can expect him to be, then really he’s the one all the others have to aim at. Gulliver, Gracious John, who was second in the race 12 months ago, Intisaab and the French raider City Light are others to note in what looks a race with many chances, but I’ll stick with the two K’s in this race – Kachy and last year’s winner Kimberella.

 

3.40 – 32Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (3yo) 6f

One previous running
Last year’s winner came from stall 5
Trainer Roger Charlton has a 24% record with this 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Simon Dow has a 20% record (+£43) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 22% record (+£42) with her 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 5 from 66 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
2017 Winner: SECOND THOUGHT (11/8 fav)

TQ VERDICT: Rock On Baileys has certainly been a punters’ pal in recent months after raking up five wins on the spin but she’s another 10lbs higher here and this will be the highest grade he’s run in. Having said, that certainly an improving sort that we know is at the top of his game so if you are prepared to risk him making the leap up again then he’s not one to dismiss lightly. Never Back Down enters the mix based on his last win over 6f at Wolverhampton and with only 5 career runs there should be more to come. Of those at the bigger price the Amanda Perrett runner Count Otto can go well and is another that has done little wrong of late, albeit in lower grades. He’s only 3lbs higher for a recent course and distance win here, while the yard boasts an impressive 22% record with their 3 year-olds at the course. However, based on the ratings the clear one to for them all to beat here is CORINTHIA KNIGHT. This Dean Ivory-trained 3 year-old is rated 105 and that’s 7lbs clear of the next best – Never Back Down. He’s won his last three too, including a Listed race over in France just a few weeks ago. With speed to win over 5f and also wins over this 6f trip then this fast-improving sprinter, that likes to blast out of the stalls, is expected to lead them a merry dance and make it win number four on the spin. His main danger might come from Breathless Times, who was an easy winner at Wolverhampton last time, however, the second that day (Kion) didn’t do much to advertise the form in the week while this is also his first run at the track – I’d much rather be with the proven track winner Corinthia Knight, who – don’t forget – also took a Listed contest in France last time out.

 

4.10 – Sunbets All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m1y ITV

No winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners didn’t win their last race
All four past winners drawn 8 or lower
All four winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
All four past winners had run at the track before (2 won)
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
Trainer William Haggas has 36% (8 from 22) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 24% (17 from 71) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tracey Collins has a 67% (2 from 3) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 22% (10 from 45, +£19) record with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: SOVEREIGN DEBT (8/1)

TQ VERDICT: Course and distance winners Arcanada and Captain Joy, who both head here off the back of good wins and also hail from yards that have decent strike-rates at the track, can make their presences felt. Goring, the French runner, Lucky Team and the consistent Gabrial are all others to note, however, it’s hard to get away from SECOND THOUGHT here. This William Haggas-trained 4 year-old landed the previous race on this card 12 months ago and being rated 109 is 2lbs clear of Arcanada and the highest-rated in the line-up. The Haggas team are in cracking order and also have a decent 36% record with their 4+ year-olds at the course. He returned to the track 3 weeks ago with an easy 2 ¼ length win over 7f at Wolverhampton and is currently 6-from-6 on the AW surfaces. This mile trip probably stretches his stamina, and the others are sure to try and play on this, but he’s won over the trip at Kempton with today’s rider James Doyle so he’ll have plenty of help and experience in getting home from the saddle too.

 

4.40 – Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m2f ITV

All four previous runnings went to the favourite
All four previous winners returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
All previous winners aged between 4-6 years-old
3 of the 4 winners were Irish-bred horses
All four winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All four previous winners drawn in stall 4 or lower
All four past winners had won over CD before
Horses from stall 2 placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners of this race
Trainer William Haggas has 36% (8 from 22) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 23% (11 from 48) record with this older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Josie Gordon is just 5 from 109 (5%) riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: CONVEY (11/10 fav)

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of cases to be made here and despite only 4 previous runnings we’ve still some fair trends building up. All of those previous four winners were aged between 4-6 years-old so if that’s to be repeated then Master The World (7), Battalion (8) and Pactolus (7) would all have that to overcome. It’s interesting that jockey Josie Gordon is only 5 from 109 when riding 4+ year-olds at the track so despite having a decent chance with Star Archer I’d be a tad concerned about those riding stats. All four past winners were proven course and distance winners and also came from stalls 1-4 – so, with those two stats in mind only Battalion fits the bill here at a big price. The consistent Mr Owen and Victory Bond are sure to be big players, especially the last-named as he’s another from the in-form Haggas camp that have James Doyle booked to ride too. Utmost beat Victory Bond last time over course and distance too so it’s slightly surprising to see the Gosden runner at over double the price. Yes, he’s was beaten by Master The World last time here so the form of a lot of these runners are linked in and it really could depend on in-running tactics on the day to gain a slight edge. With all that in mind it might be worth taking a chance on the Jeremy Noseda runner – ABE LINCOLN (e/w). This 5 year-old does have to come out of draw 10 but over this 1m2f trip should have more than enough time to overcome that, plus, anyway, he’s a hold-up horse! He was a good winner two starts ago over this course and distance, while last time only just failed to get up over 1m1 1/2f at Wolverhampton to suggest the step back up in distance will be a plus. Paul Hanagan catches the eye in the saddle and it’s also interesting that connections have reached for the first-time blinkers in order to eke out a bit more improvement. I expect there to be plenty of pace in the race and with that Hanagan can switch him off at the back and come with a late run once into the home straight – we’ll see!