Lincoln Handicap Key Trends and Free Tips

Lincoln Handicap Key Trends and Free Tips

Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the 32Red-sponsored Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.  

In recent years the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 8 of the last 15 renewals, while with two wins a-piece in the last 15 runnings trainers William Haggas and Mark Tompkins are the stables to look out for.

Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 14 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 7 of the last 15 (47%) were officially rated between 95-98.

Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 3 of the last 15 (20%) winning, but also note that 10 of the last 15 favourites were unplaced.

The 2018 Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 24th March 2018

32Red Lincoln Betting Trends

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/15 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/15 – Placed first or second last time out
6/15 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15  – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by John Quinn
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 32 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

32Red Lincoln Winners

2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 –  PABLO (5/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

As always, a super-tough renewal of the Lincoln Handicap to unravel but as least we’ve several key trends to help us. Bravery gave trainer David O’Meara his first win in the race 12 months ago when getting up by a neck to beat the well-backed Oh This Is Us and in the process save the bookies from a monster payout! The 5 year-old hasn’t won since but did contest a lot of other very competitive handicaps through last year. As a result of not winning since he’s actually 5lbs lower than 12 months ago, plus has also been gelded since. As the current champ he’d be foolish to totally ignore, especially as he won this off a break last year and is also 5lbs lower. However, he’s in stall 1 now (stall 20 last year) so will have a totally different race, while his jockey from 12 months ago – Danny Tudhope – has deserted him in favour of another O’Meara runner – Lord Glitters. I’ve also been back to 1965 and can’t find a single back-to-back winner of the Lincoln, so Bravery would also have this trend to overcome! Back to Lord Glitters, and he’s certainly a horse that won many fans last season. He yet to finish out of the first two from his 9 turf starts (winning 4) and was last seen running a close second in the Listed race at Newmarket back in November. He’s the highest-rated in the field at 107 but as a result he’s got a monster 9-10 to carry. He’s certainly a classy individual that we’ll probably be seeing in Listed and Group races as the year moves on but with just 1 Lincoln winner carrying 9-10 in the last 32 runnings that would be a worry for me. In fact, a massive 14 of the last 15 winners (93%) won with 9-4 or less! If this is to be repeated then the top 7 on the card – including other fancied runners like Big Country, Mitchum Swagger and Ballard Down – would all have this trend as a big negative. If we add in that that ALL of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or younger then this is another key stat that knocks out three of the field, including last year’s third and fourth Donncha (7) and Gabrial (9). If you want to fine-tune the age trend then it might be worth knowing 4 year-olds have the best recent record – they’ve won 8 of the last 15.

Other key trends to note are that 12 of the last 15 winners had won between 2-4 times previously, while 13 of the last 15 had recorded victories over at least a mile in the past. With this race often run at a fair lick then proven stamina over the trip or at 1m2f is a big plus – horses stepping up from 6f or 7f have struggled in recent years.

Previous races run on the card might give us some clues to the draw bias, but with 11 of the last 15 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher then this is a fair guide – if this is to be repeated then it would at least knock out 8 of the 22 runners. Other key draw trends to take into account are that for whatever reason, horses from stalls 12 and 16 often go well. We’ve seen 9 placed (2 winners) from those berths in the last 15 years.

Despite the competitive nature of the race we’ve actually seen 3 winning favourites in the last 15 runnings but it is also worth noting we’ve seen 10 unplaced market leaders in that time too.

Also, don’t worry too much if your fancy is returning from a break as 10 of the last 15 winners did just that, while with two wins each in the last 11 runnings then trainers William Haggas and Richard Fahey are worth keeping on side.

Taking all the above into account then these horses stand out – CHELSEA LAD, NOT SO SLEEPY, LONDON PROTOCOL, GREY BRITAIN, ADDEYBB, FIRE BRIIGADE & LEADER WRITER.

If the prices allow then there is no harm firing a few bullets at the race. Of those seven the big talking horse of the week has been Fire Brigade and with Ryan Moore booked to ride then he’s sure to go of well-backed. From draw 19, this consistent 4 year-old certainly ticks most of the main trends and it’s hard to fault his chance. He’s only 4lbs higher for his last win over a mile at Leicester (Oct 17) but with another winter on his back this Michael Bell-trained runner can be expected to be a much stronger horse now. From 13 runs he’s won 4 and been placed in the top three 8 times, while he acts with a bit of give underfoot too – he looks to have a big season ahead and is a huge player here.

However, with the Haggas camp having a fine recent record in the race I’ll take their ADDEYBB (e/w) to just edge it. This 4 year-old landed a decent Class Two Handicap at HQ last September and has a similar profile to Fire Brigade. That, however, did come over 1m1f so we know he stays a bit further that this 1m trip and in conditions that will help. He acts on soft ground and draw 10 should give jockey James Doyle plenty of options in the race. With just 5 career runs (3 wins) there should also be a lot more to come from this Haggas horse that will be looking to add to the yards 1992, 2007 and 2010 wins in the Lincoln.