Newmarket Racing Tips and Trends: Sunday 6th May 2018

Newmarket Racing Tips and Trends: Sunday 6th May 2018

The top-class action from Newmarket racecourse continues into Sunday this weekend with FOUR more LIVE ITV races to enjoy. The second of the English Classics – the 1,000 Guineas – is, of course, the feature but the big Group One is also supported by three decent races that include the Group Two Dahlia Stakes.

Did you know? 15 of the last 16 1,000 Guineas winners were placed in the top three last time out, while 11 of the last 16 won their previous race.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TRAINERS-QUOTES with all the key trends, plus our free horse racing tips, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

1.50 – Qatar Racing Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

13/14 – Had won at least twice before
13/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
10/14 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
10/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
5/14  Having their first run of the season
6/14 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
4/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/14 – Ridden by William Buick
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
1/13 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Jockey William Buick has a very good recent record in this race – winning it in 2013 and also 12 months ago. Therefore, if we add this to the 30% strike-rate the powerful Charlie Appleby camp have at the track with their older horses then WOLF COUNTY (e/w) looks interesting – oh, and the yard also won this race last year. This 4 year-old returned after a break to be a fair fourth over in Dubai back in February and returns to the turf on what looks a fair handicap mark. He was fifth in the Group Two Dante Stakes this time last year so back into a handicap this time gives him an obvious chance. He’s won twice on the grass and with only seven career runs there should be more on offer from this Godolphin runner. Appleby also has another lively chance with Celestial Spheres in the race. This 4 year-old is a proven course winner so we know the track suits and has finished in the top two from 5 turf starts. He is, however, up 6lbs from his last win and is also 2lbs higher than when second at Wolverhampton last time out, so, for me, probably has a tiny bit to prove in and around this new mark. Ryan Moore teaming-up with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Adamant will catch punter’s eyes – especially off just 8-10. He returned with a fair second at Newbury – beaten just a neck – and with that coming off a 356 day break then we can expect him to have come on bundles – certainly one for the shortlist but being from these connections might also not be much value – we’ll see. Duke Of Bronte is a consistent performer around this level and heads here full of confidence after a nice win at Chelmsford last time, while with a light weight the William Haggas-trained The Grand Visir can’t be ruled out with the return to 1m4f looking a plus after getting stretched over further of late. Weekender is another that is sure to be very popular with Frankie and John Gosden teaming-up. This 4 year-old has only had 5 runs, but won two of those and wasn’t disgraced when second in a decent Listed race at Ascot over 1m6f last time out. He is up 12lbs from his last handicap run though so despite having a big chance it won’t be easy with 9-10 to carry. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston team took this in 2012 and in Sofia’s Rock and Fire Fighting they had two tough handicappers that are never far away in races like this.

 

2.20 – Charm Spirit Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV

14/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/14 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
12/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had run at the course before
7/14 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/14 – Won this on first run of the season
6/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 4)
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: The French and Irish raiders Golden Legend and Elegant Pose command respect and are surely not coming over for a day trip but really based on the current official ratings this should be another for the Godolphin camp. WUHEIDA is the clear highest-rated in the field on 117 and despite having to give 5lbs away sets a very high standard. She was a good winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mares’ last November and that is clearly the best form on offer. She also figured well in three other Group One races last season so this drop back into a Group Two will make things a lot easier too. Yes, giving 5lbs away won’t be easy and he also returns from a break but he’s got well fresh in the past and looks to have ideal conditions here. Of the rest, Ryan Moore booked to ride the David Elsworth-trained Tisbutadream catches the eye and she looks a fair each-way alternative to the hot favourite – she’s been placed in the top three 7 times from 9 starts on the turf and also won first time out last May. Billesdon Bess, Wilamina and Indian Blessing are others to note but are likely to be playing for places, rather than winning. 

 

2.55 – Longholes Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before
12/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
7/14 – Returned between 10/1-12/1 in the betting
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
3/14 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/14 – Winning favourites
Just 1 placed horse from stall 2 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
Mr Lupton won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/1

TQ VERDICT: MR LUPTON took this race 12 months ago and I think everything is in place for him to go well again. Last year he came here having finished second on his return run so his recent runner-up finish at Doncaster has an identical preparation to it. He’s also 3lbs lower than last year as he gets in off a mark of 104 (107 in 2018). Jamie Spencer comes in for the ride but knows the horse well after riding him 9 times in the past (2 wins). He came from stall 4 last year but draw 13 looks fine too as 7 of the last 10 winners actually came from stalls 9 or higher – he looks primed to run a big race. If that stall stat is to be repeated then Eastern Impact (9), Medicine Jack (10), Magical Memory (11), Gifted Master (12), Baron Bolt (14), Captain Colby (15) and Rebel Surge (16) are the others to note. Course and distance winner Ekhtiyaar is also another consider and only just falls outside the stall trends in 8. He was sent off favourite in a similar race here last time out but can be expected to have improved a lot for that and I don’t think he’ll be far away with Jim Crowley riding. Magical Memory is also interesting now back into a handicap. Frankie knows the horse very well and he’s been performing well in to Group sprints over the last few seasons so this drop down in grade will be a big plus for him – my only worry would be the form of the Charles Hills yard at the moment (2 from 23 at the time of writing). However, the other main pick is GIFTED MASTER. This 5 year-old is the highest-rated in the field at 109 so does have 9-10 to carry but the Hugo Palmer yard are in great form at the moment and he’ll be a lot fitter for a recent return run at Lingfield. He’s another that has been running in better races than this so will enjoy the ease in grade, plus is a horse that seems to save his best for this track – winning here 4 times from 8 starts.

 

3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
11/16 – Won their previous race
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
5/16 – Previous Group One winners
5/16 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/16 – Won by a US bred horse
4/16 – Won by the favourite
3/16 – French-trained winners
3/16 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien doesn’t quite have as good a record in the 1,000 Guineas as he does in the 2,000 – however, four wins in the fillies’ Classic is still not a bad effort! The last two of those have come in the last two runnings too and in Happily he’s got this year’s favourite. However, we did last see this Group One-winning filly well beaten at the Breeders’ Cup in the Fillies’ Juvenile but the really firm surface and not getting the clearest of runs were fair excuses. Prior to that she’d landed two Group One’s – the Grand Criterium in France and the Moyglare Stud in Ireland – so it’s certainly out of the top drawer. She’s rated 113, which is the joint second highest in the field so as long as you can forgive that last run, where she did have excuses, then she’s the one to beat. With five career runs then she’s also one of the more experienced in the field but on the flip-side that also opens her up to a potential improver. The Ballydoyle camp took this 12 months ago with one of their second/third strings and based on that their other runners can’t be overlooked – don’t forget they also won the Derby with a 40/1 shot last year so these 3 year-olds can improve rapidly. With that in-mind I CAN FLY would not be the worst shout in the world. This filly has only had three career runs but has shown promise in a couple of Group Three’s and has also had the benefit of a recent run. The step up to a mile for the first time will suit and she’s also tasted the Newmarket track after running third here last October in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She’s been popular in the betting in the build-up which suggests she’s improved over the winter and also since that last run and could be the value against the obvious O’Brien hot-pot – Happily. Laurens is the other joint second top-rated runner at 113 and she’s done little wrong during her short career so far. We last saw her winning the Fillies’ Mile here over course and distance so that track experience is a big plus. She’s a game filly that just about sees out this mile well so has to be one for the shortlist too – she’s a big price for what she’s achieved and you feel if she was trained by O’Brien or one of the Godolphin lot then she’d be a lot shorter – she’s hard to ignore. Altyn Orda and Anna Nerium are lively outsiders that have decent course form here, while with the Mick Channon yard going great guns at the moment their Dan’s Dream, who won the Fred Darling last time out, can go well if taking to the step up to 1m. With a rating of 114 (the highest in the field) the Godolphin’s Wild Illusion is hard to ignore too. She was an easy winner of a Group One in France last time and is yet to finish out of the first two. She’s only had three runs so we can expect more and the Charlie Appleby camp have started the new season in tremendous form. However, the Appleby team also run SOLILOQUY and of their pair this well-bred Dubawi filly gets the call. She was last seen running away with the Nell Gwyn over 7f here and if improving a tad on that would be a big player. She’s won over a mile in the past too so the trip is fine and will be looking to become the first Nell Gwyn winner to follow-up since Speciosa in 2006. I’m happy to side with this Godolphin runner, plus the Aidan O’Brien second string against the favourite – Happily.