Newmarket TV Trends: Friday 28th Sept 2018

Newmarket TV Trends: Friday 28th Sept 2018

Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest – Enjoy!

 

Friday 28th September 2018

1.50 – Muhaarar Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

7/7 – Had won over 1m before
7/7 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
6/7 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times before
5/7 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
5/7 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Aged 3 years-old
2/7 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Trained by John Gosden
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
0/7 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013
William Haggas won the race in 2014 & 2017
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016
Laugh Aloud won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Quite a lot to go on here if you like your trainer stats. The Richard Hannon yard won this in 2013 and look for a repeat with their 3 year-old Tajaanus but has hardly set the world alight this season so does have a bit to prove – on a plus, he is a course winner. The William Haggas yard are another that have done well in the race – winning it in 2014 and 2017 – they run Beshaayir, who was last seen running a fair fifth at Ascot. She gets weight from the older horses but her last two runs in Listed company have seen here well beaten. It’s also been a top race for the John Gosden yard with successes in 2015 and 2016, while one of those horses run again here LAUGH ALOUD won this race as a 3 year-old in 2016 and despite not getting the weight this time looks to have a big chance. She’s run well in Group Three races this season so the drop in grade will help and with only two runs this season will also be fresher than most. William Buick rides. Unforgetable Filly sets the standard off a mark of 111 but does have to get weight away all round. She was an easy 8 length winner in this grade last time though so if running to that level again here commands a huge amount of respect. The Henry Candy yard boasts a 24% record with their older horses here so their Queen Of Time might do best of those at bigger prices, but the other main danger to the selection looks to be Agrotera. This filly was a nice winner of the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and has since run with credit in Listed races at Haydock and Longchamp. She does, however, have 11 lengths to find with Unforgetable Filly based on that Haydock run in August but with just six career runs should have more to come. I’ll stick with the 2016 winner – LAUGH ALOUD – though with Queen Of Time doing best of the outsiders.

 

2.25 – Princess Royal Nayef Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

12/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Placed favourites
11/13 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
11/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/13 – Won between 1-3 times before
10/13 – Aged 3 years-old
8/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: This has been another good race for the John Gosden yard with three wins in the last six runnings, so their Highgarden is respected with Frankie riding. This 3 year-old has run okay this season but during the early part of the year was probably expected to go onto better things when a beaten favourite in the Musidora Stakes at York back in May. She was also beaten 8 lengths by another of today’s runners – Crimson Rosette – so has a bit to find with that Charlie Fellowes runner. Star Rock will be popular too and is the only proven course and distance winner in the field. She’s been placed in Group Two races the last twice so this ease in grade will make her the one to beat. She’s finished in the top three in 7 of her 9 starts on the turf and also stays further than this 1m4f trip – she looks the percentage call with Oisin Murphy booked to ride for trainer Hughie Morrison. Mrs Slippy is feared too after a good Listed win in France last time and is at least proven over the trip, while Sun Maiden will have her fans with Stoute and Moore teaming up. However, she’s got a bit to prove over this trip after being well-beaten over it the last three times and punters might still be getting a bit carried away with her easy 12 length maiden win back in May, but she probably didn’t beat a great deal that day. Rasima and Perfect Clarity are others to note that could sneak into places.

3.00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/14 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time
12/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Won by a March or April born foal
8/14 – Won over 7f before
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/14 – Won by the Hills yard
2/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last two winners)
2/14 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/14 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
0/14 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: The 107-rated pair of Main Edition and Just Wonderful are sure to both be popular but both also head here off the back of slightly below-par runs. Main Edition was last seen running fifth in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland but in her defence that was a Group One race so this ease in grade will help. Before that she was a good winner of the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes and that form would surely see her go close – Frankie Dettori, who rode her last time, remains in the saddle. The Aidan O’Brien runner – Just Wonderful – was seventh in the Moyglare so is closely-matched with Main Edition but the yard does boast a decent 24% record with their juveniles at the track. Canton Queen, Dutch Treat and Dandhu are others to consider but the one that ticks most of the main trends is the Roger Varian-trained YOURTIMEISNOW. This 2 year-old heads here having won her last two, with the last of those the Group Three Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury. Yes, this is another step up in grade but did it the hard way from the front that day and could have more to come now upped to 7f (from 6f). Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride on this filly that has only had four career runs so should have more to offer.

3.35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

13/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/14 – Officially rated between 111-118
11/14 – Had won a Group race before
10/14 – Failed to win last time out
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Had won over 1m before
10/14 – Won 4 or less times before
9/14 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
9/14 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
9/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Aged 4 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 3 runnings)
2/14 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
1/14 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
Beat The Bank won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners but a case can be made for them all. The 112-rated Mustashry looks likely to go off favourite after his neck win at Doncaster last time out in the Group Two Park Stakes. He does, however, have to give weight away to the likes of Zabeel Prince, Zonderland and REGAL REALITY – it’s the last-named of that bunch that makes the most appeal. Jockey Ryan Moore has ridden two of the last three winners of this race, while with a 3 or 4 year-old landing 10 of the last 14 renewals then he fits the bill on the age front too. He was a good winner of a Group Three at Goodwood in August and despite being a beaten favourite last time at Haydock in the Unibet Mile the heavy ground that day wouldn’t have been ideal. Only four runs also suggest there’s more to come and gets a thumbs up on most of the main trends. Accidental Agent is the top-rated in the field on 116 and after winning the Group One Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot in June would be the one to beat. However, she’s got a penalty for that success and it might not be easy having to give away 9lbs to the unexposed Regal Reality.