TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 12th May 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 12th May 2018

 

  • Lingfield: Classic Trials At The Surrey Track…….
  • Ascot: Four LIVE Races – Including the Victoria Cup……
  • Haydock: Key Trends For The Swinton Hurdle…………..

 

 

 

Hi, so that’s two of the five English Classics done-and-dusted after last weekend’s 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas from HQ!

A bit of a turn-up in the 1,000 Guineas with 66/1 shot Billesdon Brook landing the fillies’ Classic for the Richard Hannon yard , which gave the bookies a nice payday, while the Aidan O’Brien-trained Saxon Warrior cemented his claims at the head of the Epsom Derby market with an easy win in the 2,000 Guineas a day earlier. He’s now around 2/1 for the Derby next month as he looks to become the first horse since Camelot and Sea The Stars to land both the Guineas and the Derby – there could be even more to come when upped to 1m4f!

We also saw some more Derby clues in midweek at Chester with Young Rascal an eye-catching winner of the Chester Vase – don’t forget last year’s Derby winner – Wings of Eagles – was runner-up in the Dee Stakes 12 months ago. While Rostropovich was another winner for O’Brien on the Roodee last week. He took the Dee Stakes by an easy 3 ¾ lengths to give the Ballydoyle camp plenty of depth to this year’s Derby once again.

Right – moving onto this weekend and there’s a lot going on! We’ve something for everyone with a top summer jumping card at Haydock that includes the Swinton Hurdle, plus flat racing from Ascot and Lingfield. The ultra-competitive Victoria Cup is the feature race from Ascot – we try and unravel the big field below, while at Lingfield we’ve more Classic clues on show with their Oaks and Derby Trials.

So, a bumper Saturday to look forward to with a stonking 8 LIVE races spread across three tracks. As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quote: More Winners For TQ Members………………

Here’s just a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

“Roundabout Magic – Regular Lingfield winner on the all weather and has run just well enough here before. Stronger this term and settled, so no surprise if he goes well at a price in this small field (just 4 runners).”1st 10/1 SIMON DOW

“Feathery – Went so close at Nottingham last week and backs-up that run quickly here today. She seems to have come out of that race well and the track will suit. One question mark would be the quick ground though but hopeful of a decent run.” 1st 6/5 CHARLIE FELLOWES

“Tara Mac – It was nice to see Tara back winning last time when getting up by a neck to win at Newcastle. Only a pound higher here and up in grade so a bit more needed, plus today ground will be a lot different (heavy last time). Having said that, is a horse that seems to go on most ground so today’s quicker surface is fine. Seemed to enjoy the first-time cheekpieces last time too so they are on again. Well at home and seems to have enjoyed that recent win. Trappy race with all 5 having a say but our horse is well and we come here hopeful of another good run.” 1st 5/1 TIM VAUGHAN

“Cobajayisland – Returned after a 3 month break to run well (3rd) at Southwell last time. That was over 2m4f, which is a bit on the short side, so the step up to 3m2f will suit. Has won off this mark over 3m before but a horse that’s had a few issues over the last few years – hence why he’s raced just 3 times since Dec 17. Looks an open race with all 9 having some sort of chance, so we head here with a leading e/w chance. “ 1st 6/1 MICHAEL SCUDAMORE

“Shaun has finished second in both of his bumpers so far and despite being very green in both races he’s a fair sort and there is a lot of improvement to come from him – especially once the penny drops. Since then Shaun has done plenty of schooling but I’m not going to send hurdling until next autumn. Shaun is a star at home, he’s not the brightest horse but he’s got a wonderful nature and he does amuse everyone in the string when he occasionally does something naughty. A few others feared today – like Mill Green and Ask Dillon – but our horse sets a fair standard and hoping we are the one to beat. Should go well.” 1st 5/2 OLIVER SHERWOOD

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

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Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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HAYDOCK: A Decent Field Line-Up For The Swinton Hurdle…

 

3.10 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
15/15 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
15/15 – Carried 11-5 or less
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
10/15 – Irish bred
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
3/15 – Ran at Ayr last time out
3/15 – Trained by Evan Williams (3 of the last 5 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 12 winners returned 16/1
John Constable (5/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The Evan Williams-trained JOHN CONSTABLE (e/w) took this prize 12 months ago and looks primed to go well again. The last horse to land back-to-back victories in this race was Eradicate in 2010 & 11 so it’s certainly possible, while the Williams yard have a top overall record in the contest with wins in 2013, 2014 and, of course, 2017. Okay, the horse is up a massive 22lbs from his win last year but let’s not forget he won it by an easy 14 lengths. Good ground is a big plus for this 7 year-old and he’s a horse that has progressed up the ranks to warrant the hike in the handicap anyway. He was only beaten 4 lengths in the International Hurdle back in December and although Buveur D’Air did in with a bit more in hand than the 1 ¾ length margin at Sandown in February, that was still a solid effort. Connections have given him 60 days to prepare for this and he’s a horse that goes well fresh so although he’s giving a lot of weight away this is a race connections would have targeted for a while and he’s proven in it. The Evan Williams camp also run Silver Streak and in this better ground this one can be expected to go well but most punters have latched onto this and might not be much value. Of the rest, the Queen’s Forth Bridge and the Paul Nicholls-trained Capitaine look dangerous off low weights so can’t be discounted, while Chesterfield is sure to be thereabouts if running to the level that saw him run third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time out at Ayr. Dear Sir and proven course and distance winner Chti Balko are others to note but the other main pick goes to OPTIMUS PRIME (e/w). This Dan Skelton-trained 6 year-old was runner-up in the race 12 months ago and gets in here off the same mark. He had all bar John Constable beaten that day but whereas last year this Skelton horse was giving the winner 6lbs he’s now in receipt of a monster 16lbs – that’s a 22lb swing! So, yes, he’s got 14 lengths to find and as pointed out above I feel JC has improved since, but that’s a big weight pull that should see them finish a lot closer. The Skelton team also have their horses in decent order and a 12 length second behind the classy Footpad at Punchestown last time out over fences was a top effort – he’s rated 5lbs lower over hurdles so it could be a shrewd move by connections to get him back over the small obstacles while they can.

 

ASCOT: The Victoria Cup Unravelled ………

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.15 – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Cl3 1m4f ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/7 – Won 2 or 3 times before
7/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Rated between 86 and 91
6/7 – Carried 9-4 or less
5/7 – Aged 4 years-old
5/7 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/7 – Won on reappearance run (last 4)
4/7 – Drawn in stalls 5-8 (inc)
4/7 – Horses from stall 11 placed (1 winner)
4/7 – Had raced at Ascot before
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: With jockey Andrea Atzeni riding the last two winners of this race then his mount – Thundering Home – will be looking to give him a unique treble in the race. This 5 year-old was only beaten 3 lengths at Epsom last time out on his first run back so should be a lot better for this. This is also a step up to 1m4f for the first time but he’s a horse that looks as if it will suit – one for the shortlist. The William Haggas runner – Humble Hero – and John Gosden’s Master Singer are sure to be popular coming from these powerful yards. Both are also 4 year-olds and with 5 of the last 7 winners aged 4 then they fit this key age trend too. Master Singer is also coming out of stall 5 and even over this 1m4f trip there is a fairly useful draw stat building up with 4 of the last 7 winners coming from stalls 4-8. 6 of the last 7 winners carried 9-4 or less though so if that’s to be repeated then the top five on the card are ruled out, but it is worth mentioning Twin Star as horses from stall 11 have been placed (1 winner) in 4 of the last 7. All of the last 7 winners were aged 4 or 5 but this is the bulk of the field anyway, while the last 7 winners had also won 2 or 3 times. With all this in-mind the David Elsworth-trained DASH OF SPICE certainly ticks a lot of boxes. This lightly-raced 4 year-old gets in with just 8-10 and comes from draw 7. He was a decent second at Epsom last time – three places in front of Thundering Home – and is only a pound higher. Only four career runs suggest there is more to come, especially over this two furlong longer trip as he stayed on well to take second that day. Of the rest, the 5 year-old C’Est No Mour fits a lot of the main stats too but would need to put a below-par return run behind him at Epsom last time. He’s only 4lbs higher than his last win though and it’s interesting connections reach for the first-time hood. Count Calabash, Exceeding Power and Koeman are all last-time out winners that command respect but those wins also all came on AW surfaces, plus it’s interesting 6 of the last 7 winners of this race came here having NOT won last time out.
2.50 – Carey Group Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Had won 3 or more times before
7/12 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/12 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
6/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/12 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
2/12 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: The Stoute and Gosden teams have decent records in this race so their Mirage Dancer and Glencadam Glory will be popular. Both are closely-matched on a mark of 110 so there shouldn’t be much between them. The Andrew Balding camp run Scotland but this 7 year-old has clearly had some issues after a 695 day absence, while the yard don’t have the best of records at the track with their older horses – just 3 from 75 (4%). God Given gets a handy 5lbs from the rest (fillies allowance) which certainly brings her into the mix but her best form so far has been with a bit of cut so that would be a small concern. The 110-rated Salouen is another to consider but the one to beat is BARSANTI. Yes, those against this Roger Varian-trained 6 year-old will notice he’s been a beaten favourite in two of his last three races. However, in between those he was a close second over this trip in the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes – beaten just ½ a length behind Idaho. Quick ground is ideal for him and he’s got well fresh in the past. Being rated 115 then he’s got around 5lbs in-hand on the official ratings and being he’s only finished outside the top three once from 11 turf starts then he’s a horse that rarely runs a bad one.

3.25 – EBF Breeders´ Series Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

12/12 – Failed to win last time out
12/12 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
11/12 – Had won over a mile before
10/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
8/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/12 – Aged 4 years-old
8/12 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
7/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Rated between 82-87
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 12 winners of this race NOT winning last time out then – take it, or leave it – this is still a significant trend. Therefore, if that’s to be repeated then Di Fede, Red Tea and Dynamic, who all boast victories last time out, will have this stat to overcome. Winning form over this mile trip is also a plus with 11 of the last 12 falling into this category – of the 9 runners, Queen Of Time, Red Tea, Dynamic, Zest and Tribute Act are the proven mile winners in the field. It’s interesting that trainer James Fanshawe runs two of his Elite Racing horses in the same race – Tribute Act and Zest. Both are closely-matched too off handicap marks of 90, however, of the two I personally prefer ZEST, who was a close fourth last time out at Lingfield over 7f. He got going too late that day so the return to a mile is a big plus and he heads here fit from a spell on the AW, while being rated as high as 97 this time last year then his rating of 90 looks very attractive. QUEEN OF TIME is the other horse that catches the eye. This 4 year-old unseated at Goodwood last time out in a decent Listed race but looked in the process of running a big race. If none-the-worse for that, and the fact the Candy camp are running him again so soon (only ran 7 days ago) suggests the horse is fine after that clipping heels incident. Prior to that last season he progressed nicely and rounded off the campaign with a solid second in a Listed race at Sandown over this trip – he should be a lot stronger this season.

 

4.00 – Totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

14/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 7f before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Had won no more than 3 times
11/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before (4 winners)
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The last 5 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

TQ VERDICT: It goes without saying this is a super-tough race to unravel, with 29 runners set to head to post. There is no harm in having three or 4 tries here as prices are generally on the generous side. There are likely to be several well-fancied ones like Keyser Soze and Louie De Palma, plus the Godolphin runner – Silent Attack and the consistent Kynren are others that strong cases can be made for. However, in a race like this you really need to pin your hopes on a few angles and run with it. Therefore, with that in mind, the main factors I’m going to be focusing on are having raced in the last 5 weeks, being aged 5 or younger, carrying 8-10 or less and also coming from a double-figure draw. Yes, the draw stat has chopped and changed a bit over the last 10-15 years but with ALL of the last 5 winners hailing from a double-figure berth then I’m happy to take side with the high numbers here. 14 of the last 15 had also raced in the last 5 weeks so those returning off a break – and there are a fair few – will have this trend to overcome. With 12 of the last 15 aged 5 or younger and also having won no more than three times then these combined trends should hopefully put a lot in our favour. The three horses that standout are GILGAMESH, SPANISH CITY and REPERCUSSION, while Sea Fox, Ripp Orf and Masham Star are fair outsiders too that if stakes allow might be worth having small interests in at big prices. Gilgamesh had a cracking season last year and despite down the field on his return run at Newbury last month that would have blown the cobwebs away and was also over a mile for the first time. The drop back to 7f will, therefore, suit as will the much quicker ground. Draw 23 means he can grab the rail too and with just 7 career runs we’ve also probably not seen the best of him yet. Spanish City gets in with just 8-6 in weight but is only 5lbs higher for his recent Newcastle win over this 7f trip. That was his first try over that distance and it seemed to suit perfectly, while that also came off almost a year off so can also be expected to come on for it. Andrea Atzeni is a plus in the saddle and coming from the powerful Roger Varian yard then we can expect further improvement. The final pick – Repercussion – does fall outside the weight trend with 9-1 but being a 5 year-old and having draw 17 then this Charlie Fellowes-trained runner has some other pluses. I was taken by his fifth in the Lincoln Handicap after not getting the best of runs and he followed that up with another fifth in the 22-runner Spring Mile at Newbury. He stays further than this but the drop back to 7f looks fine after getting a bit tired over a mile last time and he’s also a pound lower. These big-field handicaps are what he’s been used to this season and based on his recent runs he’s a fairly consistent sort running 6-2-4-1-5-5.


LINGFIELD: Classic Trials Day In Surrey……….

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.55 – Betfred Mobile Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

13/14 – Had won no more than once before
11/14 – Had no more than 3 career runs
11/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Came from stall 5 or higher
9/14 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
8/14 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
7/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Having first run of the season
6/14 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Winners from stall 5
4/14 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
3/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: The John Gosden team won this race 12 months ago and in Stream Song they look to have a fair chance of following-up – Frankie was also on last year and he’s been booked to ride. She’s won her last two and probably had a bit more in-hand than the official neck margin that she got home in at Windsor last time. This will be tougher but she holds an Oaks entry so is clearly well-regarded and it’s interesting connections also put the first-time cheekpieces on. With four career runs she’s one of the more experienced in the field but that might also open her up for something to improve past her. The Ralph Beckett camp also boast a top record in this race – winning it in 2013 and 2014 – so their Cecchini is another to consider. This 3 year-old filly is now 1-from-1 after an easy Kempton win last November and is another that holds an Oaks entry. The big question mark though is the trip – she won her maiden over a mile and breeding suggests this step up to 1m3 1/2f is very borderline. Connections, however, must feel her future lies over further – we’ll find out here, but with the yards top record in the race she’s hard to ignore. Litigation, Perfect Clarity, Ejtyah and Lady Of Shalott are all others to consider but the fact Aidan O’Brien is bringing his FLATTERING over from Ireland speaks volumes. This 3 year-old broke her maiden only a week ago but she did it in style – winning by 10 lengths. Yes, that also came on much softer ground than she’s going to get here but the step up in trip from 1m2f to almost 1m4f will suit with these young fillies very capable of improving loads during their early careers. Ryan Moore also comes in for the ride, while the yard are no strangers to winning this race after landing the prize in 2016.

2.30 – Betfred Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

15/15 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (no winners)
11/15 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
4/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
The last winner to go on and win the Epsom Derby was High Rise 1998

TQ VERDICT: The Andrew Balding, Harry Dunlop, Richard Hannon, Karl Burke and Henry Candy teams, who run King and Empire, Knight To Behold, Star Of Southwold, Wax And Wane and Thrave, might not agree but this looks another race the John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien yards look set to fight out with CORELLI and Kew Gardens. Based on the official ratings then the O’Brien runner – Kew Gardens – has 20lbs in-hand as he’s rated 110, to Corelli’s 90, but the Gosden runner might still be the value to bridge that gap. He’s only raced three times but the manner of his easy win at Yarmouth last time out caught the eye and he’s a horse clearly held in high regard. He holds a Derby entry too and it goes without saying trainer John Gosden will have a good idea where he stands with this 3 year-old. Kew Gardens heads here with 6 career runs so we know a bit more about his level. He’s a proven Listed grade winner over 1m2f and will be a lot fitter for a recent run at Newmarket. Ryan Moore adds to his chance and this is a race the O’Brien yard have a great record in – winning it 4 times in the last 15 years! However, for me, I feel Kew Gardens sets a fair standard but his form doesn’t exactly get the pulses racing and, therefore, might just be prone to an improver and less-exposed runner – step forward Corelli!

 

3.40 – Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

12/12 – Aged 5 or younger
11/12 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
10/12 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Had won over 7f before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/12 – Irish-bred
6/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Non UK-trained winners
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
2/12 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 9 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2
TQ VERDICT: The two fillies in the race – Hikmaa and Tajaanus – are of interest as they both get 12lbs from the older horses in the race but with 9 of the last 12 aged 4 or 5 then over the years this has tended to be a race that’s gone to the older horses. 11 of the last 12 were drawn in stalls 3-8 so of the 9 runners this might be a negative for La Figlia, Hunainia and Hikmaa – who are drawn 1, 2 and 9. LINCOLN ROCKS is a rare runner at the track for trainer Dave O’Meara but this 5 year-old is certainly in with a shout. She was a close third at Goodwood last week on her first run back so is sure to have come on a lot for that, plus this drop back to 7f is a big plus after getting caught close home last time over a mile. But the yard are also 3-from-3 here at the track (100%) so their raids down south to Lingfield are usefully worth looking out for. Frankie is an interesting jockey booking for the Roger Varian-trained Tomyris but needs to defy a 217 absence. The French raided these shores on AW Championship day here at Lingfield earlier this season so their Hunaina is another to consider. She was a tidy Listed winner at Kempton last time out and won’t be coming over just for a day trip. Trainers Ed Vaughan and Richard Hannon have good track records with their older horse so their 3 year-olds Hikmaa and Tajaanus can go well, but the other main pick is ONE MASTER. The William Haggas yard boasts an impressive 49% strike-rate here at the track with their runners and with Ryan Moore booked to ride then this one catches the eye. She’s only raced three times but was an impressive winner last October at Ascot over this 7f trip at this level. We can expect the horse to have improved a lot over the winter and with some fancy Group One entries later in the year must be thought better than this.

 

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team