TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st April 2018

• Scottish GRAND NATIONAL – Can Vicente Make It Three?……

• Ayr: Best of the Rest From the Scottish Track……

• Newbury: Top-class Flat Action From Berkshire……..


• Trainers Quotes: Moore Has It Off At Cheltenham……….

 

 

Hi, well that was nice last week with TIGER ROLL landing the Grand National for readers – we hope you were on! Ok, it wasn’t all plain-sailing and it was certainly heart-stopping stuff in the final few yards. However, Gordon Elliott’s charge just about had enough left in the locker to reward backers and give the yard their second win in the Merseyside Marathon after Silver Birch also won for them in 2007.

It was also Elliott’s second National this month after the powerful Irish yard also took the Irish version in their homeland on Easter Monday, while with Irish horses filling the top four places last Saturday at Aintree then it’s clear their staying chasers are vastly dominate at the moment.

We’ve also a lot to still look forward to for jumping fans with the Punchestown Festival starting next week but before that we’ve got the Scottish National at AYR today.

All eyes will be on the Paul Nicholls-trained Vicente as he bids to become the first horse since 1913 to land the race three years in a row! He was pulled out at Aintree last weekend due to the ground so his popular owner – Trevor Hemmings – will be hoping the forecast rain stays away from Scotland on Saturday.

The horse is rated only 4lbs higher than 12 months ago but as long as the top-weight – Gold Present – runs then he’ll actually have 3lbs less in actual weight to carry this time. A whole host of horses that finished in behind him last year, including Cogry, Benbens, Alvarado, Vintage Clouds and Henri Pari Morgan, will be trying to overturn that form of 12 months ago – so can he do it? We take a look at the race in more detail, plus have all the key trends.

We’ve also got another fancy for the Scottish National – a very well-handicapped horse – that looks worthy of support. You can also find out more on that below.

As well as the National, there’s a great supporting card at Ayr that includes the Scottish Champion Hurdle – oh, yes, we’ve also got this covered underneath.

The flat action continues to move up a few notches too. After the midweek Craven Meeting at HQ we’ve got the Greenham card at NEWBURY with the ITV cameras heading to the Berkshire track to take in four races.

So, bundles to get stuck into with a BUMPER 9 LIVE races this Saturday and we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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This Week At Trainers-Quote: Fluide Beats The Traffic To Reward TQ VIEW Backers!

It’s been another top week for the TQ yards and in particular the TQ View selections.

Members were celebrating again on Wednesday with 20/1, 13/2 and 2/1 winners……not to mention a tasty 40/1 third – all given out with positive quotes (see below if you don’t believe us)!

Of those winners – TRAFFIC FLUIDE – was the sweetest as this was yet another example of how the TQ VIEW (the day’s best quote given by the TQ team) can return big sums! Backed into 13/2 but this well-handicapped chaser was on offer at 12/1 when our info went out to members!!

So – top stuff yet again and another example just how valuable the TQ info is to members!

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

“MONBEG THEATRE – Has been knocking on the door this season and running well without winning. He’ll appreciate this step up in trip on drying ground and should have an each-way chance in a very competitive race – 24 runners at this stage!! Page, who claims 5lbs, gets the leg-up and is riding well at the moment.” 1st 20/1 Jamie Snowden

“TIGERWOLF was unlucky last time out as he didn’t get any luck in-running. He has ran well for previous connections at Kempton so we are hopeful he can get involved tonight.” 1st 2/1 Mark Loughnane

“TRAFFIC FLUIDE is a talented horse who seemed to lose his way after time out through a training setback. Winning at Plumpton recently, albeit over hurdles, has hopefully given TRAFFIC FLUIDE a confidence boost which I hope will show today. Only 10-4 to carry and off 140 looks very well-handicapped on old form (had been rated 162).” 1st 13/2 (from 12/1) Gary Moore

“DELL ORO is a lovely big horse whose running plans have been somewhat thwarted by the continuing bad weather. Hoping to get decent ground today at Cheltenham so DELL ORO can hopefully run an improved race. Probably will be competitive but I will be disappointed if DELL ORO des not finish close up. Each-way.” 3rd 40/1 Gary Moore
Oh, and these each-way beauties at Newmarket on Tuesday too.

“Ambient – Been in good order on the AW but in a race like this will need more. Nicola takes off a handy 5lbs to help and at least we head here fit and well, with some of the others returning from a break. Tough call but a consistent sort so small chance we may well run into a place at a big price.” 2nd 33/1 JANE CHAPPLE-HYAM

“Accession – Loves Newmarket and we are one of just 2 proven CD winners in the field. Loves the ground too and is in great form at home. Does have to win off a career-high mark though at the ripe old age of 9 but hoping his love of this place sees him run well. Another tough race but could easily outrun his odds.” 3rd 25/1 CHARLIE FELLOWES

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…
Be a fly-on-the-wall at the UK’s TOP yards…
Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..
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Ayr: SCOTTISH NATIONAL Key Trends and Best Bets…..

4.05 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV
15/15 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
13/15 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
13/15 – Aged 8 or older
12/15 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
11/15 – Carried 10-9 or less
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Finished in the first three last time out
10/15 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
10/15 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
10/15 – Had won over 3m1f or further
9/15 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
5/15 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/15 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 2 winners)
1/15 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 6 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 20/1

TQ VERDICT: With the winner of the last two Scottish Nationals – VICENTE – heading to post again then all eyes will be on this Paul Nicholls-trained 9 year-old as he bids to land an historic treble in the race.

The last horse to do so was Couvrefeu II back on 1913 but despite rated 4lbs higher this time it would be a brave man (or woman) to go against Vicente. Yes, he’s rated 4lbs higher but in terms of actual weight to carry he’s actually got 3lbs less than last year – providing the topweight – Gold Present – remains in the race.

He was pulled out of the Grand National last week despite being fairly well-fancied but that was only down the soft ground at Aintree. The drying conditions this week have played into his hands as he’s a horse that goes well on quicker ground – something he’ll get here. So, yes, he’s an obvious call but being a proven performer in this race and still at 9 years-old then he’s certainly one I’ll be having in my portfolio despite the trends saying he’s got too much weight. He’s a horse that in the last two runnings – with his weight and age – has defied the trends so I’m not too concerned on that score.

Several Of Last Years Runners Also Go Again – Yes, not only have we got the winner of the last two runnings in the race but we’ve also got the second, third and fourth – Cogry, Benbens and Alvarado, plus the 7th Vintage Clouds and 9th Henri Pari Morgan as possible runners.

All five are respected, with possible Vintage Clouds the most interesting. This Sue Smith-trained 8 year-old is also owned by Trevor Hemmings (who has Vicente too) and was unlucky not to have been involved in the Aintree Grand National last week. He was 4th reserve for that and with some late non-runner would have got into the race had there not been the cut-off point on Friday.

Ok, he’s also rated 141, and that’s 7lbs higher than last year when 7th and beaten 14 lengths. However, he was only 7 years-old then and also seems to have improved since. He was a decent third at Cheltenham last time out in the Ultima Handicap, plus was fourth in the Welsh National back in December when not getting the best of runs.

He stays this trip and the ground will be fine, plus from 12 career chase starts he’s finished in the top three 8 times. I certainly wouldn’t put you off him and I did fancy him to run well in the National last week but with just 1 win over fences then of the two Hemmings horses the current champ Vicente just edges it.

At this stage Mr Grand National this season – Gordon Elliott – has Fagan and Folsom Blue entered but it remains to be seen if he’ll send them over to try and add to the Irish and English Nationals he’s already won this term. If they do come over then it goes without saying they are not coming over for a day trip!

The Pipe-trained Daklondike has been well fancied for this race in the build-up and looks a really promising stayer. He’s won three of his last four but returning from a 112 day break is not ideal – don’t forget all of the last 15 winners ran in the last 57 days. While at just 6 years-old it would be a huge ask for such a young horse.

The already-mentioned Henri Pari Morgan, who was 7th last year, heads here off the back of a good win at Ffos Las but he’s up 6lbs for that and is also rated 4lbs higher than 12 months ago. He’d also probably want a tad more give underfoot.

Regal Flow has won his last two in decent fashion and for a 11 year-old is defy his advancing years. He slammed Milansbar by 10 lengths last time and with that horse franking the form by running well in the Aintree National last weekend then he can’t be discounted. The negatives are though the handicapper’s raised him 10lbs for that win so at the grand old age of 11 he’ll need to put in a career-best performance here.

Doing Fine is another that’s been popular with punters in the build-up. This Neill Mulholland-trained 10 year-old gets in with just 10-6 in weight and is generally a consistent sort. He’s not finished out of the top 5 in his last 9 races and runs as if he’s worth a crack over this 4m trip. He travels well in his races and the quicker ground is certainly a big plus. I expect a good run from him but with just one win from his last 17 then he’s a horse that does tend to find a few too good – he’s probably one for the placepot or each-way players.

Of those at bigger prices the likes of Fine Rightly, Indy Five, Joe Farrell, Dawson City and Glencairn View all fit a lot of the key trends so if the prices allow might be worth having a small interest in.

However, as well as Vicente, the other main selection is going to be THE YOUNG MASTER. I still think there is another big handicap in this Neil Mulholland-trained 9 year-old, who we last saw running 6th in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.

He was 18 lengths back that day but was staying on at the finish so this extra 6 furlongs will certainly suit. He’s also down 3lbs for that and Sam Waley-Cohen is able to claim another 3lbs in this race (he wasn’t allowed to last time). That means he’s 6lbs lower here and gets in with just 10-3 to carry – a featherweight! That was also his first run back after a wind op so we can also expect him to improve for that outing as he gets used to racing after that surgery.

Don’t forget, he won the Bet365 Gold Cup in 2016 off a mark of 150 – so he’s 21lbs lower here! Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden him many times – including in that 2016 Sandown win – while having raced 36 days ago, being aged 9 and with just 10-3 in weight then he’s a horse that ticks a lot more trends than most.

 

Ayr: Best of the Rest From the Scottish Track…………

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

1.45 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated between 127-139
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/15 – Finished in the top four last time out
10/15 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – French bred
9/15 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
7/15 – Had run at Ayr before
4/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Vaniteux won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: The 154-rated Forest Bihan sets the standard here for the Brian Ellions team but as a result has 11-12 to carry and has to give weight away all round. This 7 year-old was a good winner at Newcastle last time but that was in a NH Flat ‘jumpers’ for bumpers’ race. He was also just under 10 lengths 4th behind Duke Of Navan, before that at Doncaster, who also goes here. Yes, there is a big weight pull in favour of Forest Bihan here but Duke Of Navan has also done little wrong of late and heads here having won his last race. He’s a proven course and distance winner that actually won this race in the 2015 but is 6lbs higher now, while 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 9 or younger so he’d have this stat to overcome too at 10 years-old. We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – VANITEUX (e/w) – and despite a poor season this term might be worth sticking with. He was fairly well-fancied in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last time but ran a stinker to be 14th of 22. However, the better ground here will suit and he’s actually 6lbs lower than when winning this 12 months ago. He beaten another of today’s runners – Romain De Senam – that day too. Ashoka and Contre Tous run from out of the handicap so have a bit to find, but it’s interesting Dandridge comes over from Ireland. He’s had a wind op since his last run and with Grand National-winning jockey, Davy Russell, coming over too then off 10-9 then he’s certainly got the past form to be dangerous if fully wound-up after 147 days off. Dolos can be expected to be popular coming from the Paul Nicholls yard but does need to put a recent below-par run behind him. However, the other one I like here is DOUBLE W’s (e/w). This 8 year-old was a winner at Aintree last season but has been very lightly-raced since. He’ll be a lot fresher than most and will love the ground. A mark of 137 is 2lbs lower than his Aintree win 12 months ago and he’s also a course winner. Yes, he was pulled up in this last year but that came just 16 days after Aintree – he’ll be a lot fresher this time and has gone well after a break in the past.

2.20 – Dawn Homes Novices’ Championship Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

10/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/10 – Last race 6 weeks or less ago
10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences (under rules)
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top 5
8/10 -Aged 7 years-old
7/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Had won over 3m (fences) in the past
5/10 – Irish-trained winners
4/10 – French bred winners
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites
No real weight trend with winners in the last 10 years ranging from 10-0 to 11-11
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: A very tough race to unravel here. The Paul Nicholls camp, who win this in 2016, have a decent hand with Mr Mix and BRAQUEUR D’OR (e/w) in the race and with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies riding the last-named then this 7 year-old looks interesting. Yes, he’s got a 4 month break to overcome but is sure to be fully wound-up for this. He’s finished in the top 8 in 9 of his chase starts and ran a blinder to be fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) back in December. He’ll love the ground and after a break should be ready to rock and roll again. He does, however, have a bit to find (8 lengths) with Keeper Hill, who beat him last time at Doncaster but does have a 5lbs pull with that Warren Greatrex runner this time. Of course, this 7 year-old is a player too based on that run but he’s fallen the last twice so backing him at the moment would have it’s risks attached to it. Alan King won the race 12 months ago so their Dingo Dollar is another to note. This 6 year-old has caught the eye in winning his last two in decent fashion and having bypassed Cheltenham and Aintree will head here fresh. With just four chase runs and 9 career runs in total then we’ve also probably not seen the best of him yet – he’s one for the shortlist. Acdc was a decent course and distance winner last time and with just 10-8 to carry is respected. He’s up 8lbs for that but did it well but it’s worth pointing out that did come on much softer ground. Rons Dream is another that’s won at the track and he’s done little wrong since going chasing – finishing in the top two in 5 of his 6 starts. He is up a harsh-looking 9lbs for that last win though. Nicky Richards boasts an impressive 29% strike-rate with this chasers here so it’s hard to ignore his Progress Drive, who is yet another proven course and distance winner here. But the other pick is BALLYCRYSTAL (e/w). This 7 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and with 10-13 gets in here with a nice weight. From the Brian Ellison yard, he was only 9 lengths off Keeper Hill at Doncaster in November but gets 13lbs off that horse now and can be expected to reverse the form based on that, while a 6 or 7 year-old has won ALL of the last 10 runnings of this race.

2.55 – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

15/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
Chesterfield won the race 12 months ago
Ch’Tibello won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: Nicky Henderson has three of the 16 runners here so is clearly meaning business – Claimantakinforgan, Charli Parcs and VERDANA BLUE, but with James Bowen taking off a handy 3lbs on the last-named this this one could be his best chance. This 6 year-old was last seen running down the field in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but the quicker ground here will help. She’s had 70 days to get over that and with the jockey’s claim then she looks well-treated. Henderson has used Bowen’s claim with success many times this season so the fact he’s booked him to ride here, once again, catches the eye. She often travels well while the track is also expected to suit too. Ch’Tibello won the race in 2016 so has to be respected but it won’t be easy with 11-10 and giving weight away, while we’ve another past winner as Chesterfield took the prize 12 months ago and looks primed to go well again too. This 8 year-old was an excellent 4th (of 24) in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time and is actually rated 2lbs lower than when winning this last year. Jockey Danny Samson gets on well with the horse and claims 7lbs too, while having finished in the top two in 50% of his 14 hurdles starts then he rarely runs a bad race. Of the rest, Beyond The Clouds will catch punter’s eyes after winning his last four and has only tasted defeat once from 5 career runs. He’s worth a crack at this level and Brian Hughes is a plus in the saddle but this would be his hardest task to date. Last season’s Fred Winter winner, Flying Tiger, Flashing Glance and The Unit are others to consider, while it’s hard to ignore the Gordon Elliott-trained BRELADE (e/w), who could surprise at a decent price. He was 7th in the County Hurdle so not far off Chesterfield and has since run ok to be second at Cork. Davy Russell rides.

3.30 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
14/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
8/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/15 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
6/15 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here but still an interesting little contest. The Nicholls yard have a great record in the race – winning it 4 times in the last 15 years – so their ADRIEN DU PONT – is the call. This 6 year-old should enjoy the much better ground after getting run out of things in soft conditions the last twice. It’s also interesting connections are opting for the tongue-tie for the first time here, while despite being beaten at odds-on last time it was the horse’s first run back for 2 months so I expect that to have blow away a few cobwebs too. At the weights Mia’s Storm is certainly the one to beat, getting 2lbs from the others and also being the joint highest-rated in the field anyway (149). However, we’ve not seen her since she fell at Kempton back on Boxing Day and so she’s clearly had a few issues since. She’s certainly an exciting sort and if anywhere back to her best would be hard to beat but I’d prefer to see her run first and see if that tumble has impacted her. Cobra De Mai has a bit to find on these terms but Peregrine Run and Bigmartre don’t so a case can certainly be made for these too. Bigmartre was highly-tried in the JLT Novices’ Chase last time at Cheltenham (7th) but will find this easier and prior to that had run well at Newbury and Doncaster – there should be a lot more to come from him. Peregrine Run comes over from Ireland and has some very solid Novice form too. Don’t forget he was also 11th in the 2017 Coral Cup but seems to enjoy this quicker ground so certainly can’t be ruled out. He does, however, return from a 238 day break so fitness would have to be taken on trust – but you feel they’d not be making the trip over if he hadn’t been doing plenty at home.

 

Newbury: The ITV Cameras Take In The Greenham Card…..

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.00 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
15/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/15 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
14/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/15 – Having their first run of the season
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Had raced at Newbury before
9/15 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/15 – Drawn 6 or higher
6/15 – Had won a Group race before
5/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: A decent-looking renewal of the John Porter Stakes despite only 6 runners and a case can be made for several. The only filly in the race – Titi Makfi – gets 3lbs from the others so that brings her a bit closer to the rest in terms of ratings but still has a bit to find. What About Carlo is a proven course winner here but a lot will rest on the ground for him – as the softer the better really. With a few dries days expected then conditions might just go against him but it’s worth pointing out the Eve Johnson Houghton team have a decent 20% record with their older horses at the track. The Haggas camp took this in 2012 and with the Queen also having the winner in 2016 then Call To Mind, who runs in Her Majesty’s colours for – you guessed it – Haggas enters the mix. This 4 year-old is another course winner in the field and certainly has the form to go well after winning at Listed level and only just being touched-off in a Group Two in France last September. Those runs did, however, come over a longer trip so the slight concern is if he’ll be a tad outpaced at time over this 1m4f trip, but the yard does boast an impressive 28% strike-rate here with their older horses. But the pick here for me is DEFOE. He’s the final course winner in the field and should have the measure of Call To Mind after beating that one almost 3 lengths at Hamilton last July. Roger Varian’s 4 year-old rose up the ranks last season but it looked a race too far in the St Leger last September after trailing in a well-beaten 10th. Back in grade is a plus and has proven form winning form at this level, plus has won first time out for the last two seasons so the 217 break is actually a plus – looks to have a big chance and one for the shortlist. Danehill Kodiac was highly-tried in the Group One Hong Kong Vase last time out but before that was a close third in the already-mentioned St Simon Stakes here so based on that run is a player too. He won fresh last season too but I would be a bit worried about the yard only being 4 from 46 here at the track with their older horses. The final horse to mention and one that could be the value against the favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained AUTOCRATIC. This 5 year-old was running on in the Magnolia Stakes at Kempton last time so this first try over 1m4f looks well worth a crack. Ryan Moore is an obvious plus in the saddle, while the Stoute camp have a cracking record in this race – winning it 4 times in the last 15 years. Yes, all of the last 15 winners had won over this trip before so a certain amount of trust is attached to getting the extra yardage but his recent runs suggest he’ll be fine over it and it’s clear the Stoute yard also think so.

 

2.35 –Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
14/15 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
13/15 – Having their first run of the season
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/15 – Drawn 5 or higher
8/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Had won at Newbury before
5/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
4/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: Mick Channon has done well in this race over the years so his Dan’s Dream could easily go well at a nice price, while Dance Diva is another to consider from the Richard Fahey yard if she’s able to find the form during the early part of last season. She was, however, beaten 5 lengths by the Hannon-trained Tajaanus in the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes at HQ last July so does have some ground to make up on that horse, who is also entered here. This 3 year-old is rated 102, and the second highest in the field, plus jockey Jim Crowley has won this race in 2010 and 2012. The Hannon yard have also won the race twice in the last five years, while the drop back to 7f looks a big plus after not really getting home over a mile last time out in the May Hill Stakes – oh, he’s also 2-from-2 over this 7f trip. Hannon also has Natural and All Out entered, with the first-named of that pair certainly having a chance based on what we saw last season. However, a certain Ryan Moore could spoil the Hannon party again here with GAVOTA. This 3 year-old is closely-linked with Tajaanus but is actually rated a few pounds higher. She is yet to finish out of the first three from 4 starts (winning twice) and has preformed well at Group 2 and 3 level already. With another winter on her back then we can expect a stringer horse here and also holds a 1,000 Guineas entry for next month. Moore rides for the first time too but is also no stranger to landing this prize after taking it in 2016. Trip and ground are fine and she also won first time out last season so the 190 day break is not a concern.

3.10– Al Basti Equiworld Supporting Greatwood Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
13/15 – Having their first run of the season
12/15 – Won at Listed class or better before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Had won a Group race before
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Irish-trained
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: This has been a great race for the Hannon team in recent years but they are giving everyone else a chance this year as they don’t have a runner! Frankie rides the George Scott-trained James Garfield so is sure to be popular, especially as the pocket Italian also boasts a decent 26% record when riding 3 year-olds at the track. He landed the Mill Reef over 6f here last September so the course is fine for the horse but despite having run well over this 7f trip it’s worth pointing out his two career wins to date have been over 6f. Oisin Murphy rides the unbeaten Raid for David Simcock and connections clearly feel this 3 year-old is up to this higher level despite only winning a maiden over 6f at Doncaster. That came in soft ground and breeding suggests this 7f trip is more than within range. He could go well but it could pay to know Murphy is just 3 from 67 riding 3 year-olds at the track. Clive Cox has Connect engaged but off a mark of 101 has a bit to find with a fair few of these and the yard are actually 0 from 37 with their 3 year-olds here. Fighting Irish improved in his last two starts for Harry Dunlop and can’t be ruled out running a big race. However, this could be yet another one for Ryan Moore. He rides the 117-rated EXPERT EYE here for Sir Michael Stoute and based on his mark looks to have a fair bit in-hand. Okay, this flop in the Dewhurst at HQ at odds-on last October will give his doubters here something to cling to but that clearly wasn’t his true running. He took a keen hold that day so we can be sure Stoute’s camp have been working on getting him settled and if anywhere near the form that saw him romp away with the Group Two Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last August then he’d be very hard to beat. Course and distance winner – Hey Gaman – looks the main threat to the selection after running a close second in the Champagne Stakes back in September but off 111 he’s still rated 6lbs lower than Expert Eye at 117.

3.45 – Elite Racing Club Supporting Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
15/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/15 – Won no more than 4 times before
13/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Rated between 85-98
12/15 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/15 – Won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had run at Newbury before
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
1/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

TQ VERDICT: A big field to unravel here but several decent trends too. With 13 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 then this age group has to be respected, while 12 of the last 15 were rated between 85-98 and came from a double-figure stall. Taking those main stats into account then we’ve six that stand out – REPERCUSSION, AFAAK, TAQDEER, HUMBERT, GILGAMESH and PROST. All six are respected and you never know if the prices allow it then you might even be able to have a small interest in them all! If we want to take the stats a bit further though you’ll notice that 12 of the last 15 winners had winning form over a mile – if this is to be repeated then Gilgamesh, who has only run over 6f and 7f to date, would fall down. Of those remaining, the Charlie Fellowes-trained REPERCUSSION (e/w) has had the benefit of a recent run when fifth in the Lincoln and with a bit more luck in-running would have got a lot closer – without winning. Stall 11 gives him options and that run should have him spot-on for this too. Jockey Jim Crowley would have had the pick of the Hamdan-owned horses so the fact he’s gone for AFAAK (e/w) will make him popular too. The Charles Hills yard have made a good start to the season and this 4 year-old did well last term. The form of his close second to Addeybb has been more than franked since with that horse dotting-up in the Lincoln, while draw 18 looks ideal. He also stays further than this 1m trip which will be a big plus in the closing stages. Frankie rides the other Hamdan horse – Taqdeer – who is trained by John Gosden. This 5 year-old was well-fancied in the Spring Mile (went off fav) despite a 692 absence from the track. He ran ok to be 7th (of 20) but it goes without saying we can expect that outing to have blown away the cobwebs. Prior to that he’d caught the eye winning well at Chelmsford and Newmarket. Draw 16 is a plus as is the pocket Italian in the saddle. Of the rest, the Richard Fahey yard have done well in the race over the years so his runners – Gabrial and Third Time Lucky – can be given a squeak, while with Ryan Moore being booked to ride the Richard Hannon-trained Tony Curtis that is sure to make that horse a popular choice in the market.

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend
TQ Team