TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 22nd Sept 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 22nd Sept 2018

 

• AYR: Who’ll Land Gold In Scotland?…………….
• NEWBURY: It’s Dubai Duty Free Day in Berkshire……..
• TQ UPDATE: Loughnane On The Mark………
• MASTERMIND: 198+pts IN JUST TWO MONTHS………

 

Hi,
Some more nice winners for the Saturday newsletter again last week from the free tips, plus we hope the key trends helped point you in the right direction too.

Don’t worry – there’s loads more going on this weekend with EIGHT LIVE races to take in – four each at Newbury and Ayr – so we’ll be hoping for more of the same.

North of the border in Scotland it’s Ayr Gold Cup Day with a big field lining-up for this ultra-competitive sprint handicap. In recent years, it’s a race that horses aged 4 and 5 have done well in – having won 10 of the last 16 renewals between them. While it’s also been a cracking contest for the layers with only two winning favourites going in since 1980!

Plus, down at Newbury it’s Dubai Duty Free Day at the Berkshire track and we’ve four races that include the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes to enjoy. Did you know that 13 of the last 16 (81%) Mill Reef winners came from stalls 5 or lower?

It’s also been another decent week for the Trainers-Quotes yards, plus you might remember a few weeks ago that we introduced you to an in-form new service that has been showing incredible results on our sister site – Tipster Platforms – there is still time to get involved!

Join A Tipping Service With a New Approach That’s Reaping Big Rewards – Yes, we don’t often plug other services on here but our sister site – Tipster Platforms – has been proofing a new service called ‘Mastermind’ in recent months and the results have been mind-blowing. There is more on them below, but you can get involved for a just £5 – trust us, the results have been fantastic.  190+PTS IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS!! (More below)

So, another top day to look forward to with LIVE races from Chester, Beverley and Sandown to enjoy and as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: More Success For The TQ Yards…….

Plenty more nice results this week with Mick Appleby’s improving sprinter – Saaheq – going in again – this time at Sandown. This 4 year-old could still be ahead of the handicapper based on the way he’s been winning and is certainly a horse to look out for again next time as he eyes a quick autumn treble.

However, this week belonged to the Mark Loughnane yard after two nice winners in the shape of Big Lachie (12/1) and Harbour Approach (11/2). Big Lachie landed a nice pot (£12k) after winning the lady riders’ race at the Doncaster St Leger Meeting last week and they followed that up with another success this midweek after Silvestre De Sousa guided Harbour Approach to a smooth win at Kempton – see what members were told by Mark below.

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………
“Saaheq – Won with a bit more in-hand than the official 1 length margin – very pleasing debut run and should be a lot more to come. Has come out of that race well and despite racing off a 5lb higher mark hopeful he can go well again. Only niggle would be the wide draw (9) so might need a bit of luck from there but travelled really well last time and more of the same is expected.”
Mick Appleby, 1st 7/4

“Albert Boy – Ran well in defeat and lost front shoe during the race last time. Well at home and holds a fair chance here today.”
Scott Dixon, 2nd 6/1

“Harbour Approach – A close third last time out at Carlisle – gets in off the same mark here and running at the same level. Yet to win a race but only had 7 career starts. Based on what we’ve seen so far should be going close in races like this. SDS takes over in the saddle and rides for the first time so that helps, plus we put the first-time blinkers on here today. Should go well – each-way chance.”
Mark Loughnane, 1st 11/2

“Looking For Carl – Probably my best chance on the day of getting something – but that might still only be a place. Not been out for 3-4 months but is ready to run again. Upped to 1m4f from 1m here will help as we’ve always thought he’s a horse that wants further – so looking for a much-improved run. Cheekpieces on for the first time here today too so in what is probably not the best of races – despite the numbers – could sneak into a place.”
Harry Dunlop, 2nd 33/1

“Crystal Deauville – Been on the go a lot this season so we’ll have to see if he’s had enough after this. Had a few weeks off though to try and freshen him up a bit and is a past course winner at the track. Draw 1 is fine so that gives us every chance too. Each-way with 8 runners.”
Gay Kelleway, 2nd 11/1

“Withoutdefavourite – Looks a very open race. Did run much better here last time out though when a close second over this course and distance. Same grade and only 2lbs higher suggests a similar run will see us go well again. Only 10-4 to carry also helps. Still worth pointing out he’s yet to win under rules (24 races) and at 10 years-old is not getting any younger so has been a hard horse to win with. Probably a bit more needed, but still a chance of being in the money again here.”
Tim Vaughan, 3rd 12/1

“Chitra – Looks to have a solid chance of following up her recent win off 3lbs higher in what looks a slightly deeper race.”
Daniel Kubler, 2nd 7/1

“Busy Street – Nice winner for us two starts ago at Yarmouth but was put up 7lbs for that and despite running a fine second failed to follow-up. That did, however, come in a higher graded race so was still a decent run. Into a Classified race this time and looking at the weights a bit to find with 2 or 3 of the others. Trip fine and has run well at the track before, while any rain won’t be an issue. More needed but seems a horse that is going the right way and could have more to give. Place claims but only 7 runners.”
Mick Appleby, 2nd 10/1

“Big Lachie ran a fabulous race in Ascot last Friday and continues to hold his form. We still believe that he is better over a stiff 5f, so today’s trip will test him again but if they go off fast in front then it will suit us as a finisher. Jessica Cooley is a good young rider, but in this field would be relatively inexperienced but we are hopeful she can get a good tune out of him, but as a betting proposition it is a very open race.”
Mark Loughnane, 1st 12/1
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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!
Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…
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Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..
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AYR: Who’ll Land Gold In Scotland?……………………………………….

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.00 – William Hill Supports The Fight Against Parkinson’s Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Had won over 1m before
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times before
9/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Winners from stalls 9 or lower
9/11 – Placed 4th or worse in their last race
9/11 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
8/11 – Aged 4 or older
8/11 – Returned between 7/1-14/1 in the betting
7/11 – Had run at the track before
7/11 – Rated between 89-93
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/11 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

The Saeed Bin Suroor and Andrew Balding teams are going great guns at the moment so their runners – Dayking and Isomer – are respected. Godolphin’s Dayking should have more to come with only three career starts and is yet to finish out of the top three. Bin Suroor has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track but punters are sure to latch onto this and there might not be much value in his price. 10 of the last 11 winners of this race failed to score last time out so that’s a negative for recent winners – Isomer, Borderforce. Porth Swtan and Borodin. With 9 of the last 11 winners carrying 9-3 or less in weight then this trend would be a plus for only the bottom five on the card – Set In Stone, Mikmak, Borodin, Salt Whistle Bay and Porth Swtan. Of that bunch the Tim Easterby-trained MIKMAK (e/w) could be interesting. He wasn’t beaten far behind Borderforce last time out (2 ½ lengths) but has a bit of a weight pull this time to suggest things can be closer. Prior to that run he’d finished in the top three in his last five so rarely runs a bad race. The final one to get a mention is the Michael Bell-trained FIRE BRIGADE (e/w). This 4 year-old will need to overcome draw 13 but recent runs have been encouraging and with the soft ground a plus then I feel his turn is not too far away – his recent runs on soft ground read – 1-1-2-UP-2.

2.40 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

15/15 – Carried 8-11 or more
13/15 – Aged 5 or younger
13/15 – Previous winners over 6f
13/15 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/15 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
12/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/15 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/15 – Finished 5th or better last time out
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Winning Favourites
3/15 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
0/15 – Filly or mare winners
Tatlisu won the race in 2015
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/1

With 13 of the last 15 winners of the Silver Cup aged 5 or younger then of the 25 runners this would rule out a bundle – Shared Equity, Foolaad, Maarek, Louie De Palma, Rapid Applause, Confessional, Classic Pursuit and Oeil De Tigre. 12 of the last 15 winners had also raced at least 5 times that season while horses drawn either high or low have done best.  The Jedd O’Keeffe yard boast a decent 21% record with their older horses at the track, so their Shared Equity will be trying to uphold that record, but as already pointed out at 7 years-old this horse would have to defy the main age trend. Trainer Richard Fahey has done well in the race in recent years so his runners. He runs several – Private Matter, Powerallied, Gabrial The Saint and BENGALI BOYS (e/w), but of his entries it’s the last-named that appeals most. This 3 year-old returned after a few months off to run well in a Conditions race at Nottingham but should find things easier now back into a handicap. Topweight of 9-10 makes life hard but he’s the joint top-rated in the field and at just 3 years-old has room for improvement. Seb Woods is an interesting jockey booking too and helps by taking off a handy 5lbs, while his form with some degree of ‘soft’ in the ground reads well 1-3-4. Of the rest, DAKOTA GOLD and the in-form QUICK LOOK, who heads here on a three-timer, are others that catch the eye.

3.15 – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4
13/15 – Previous winners over 6f
13/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/15 – Had never raced at Ayr before
13/15 – Had won once or two times before
12/15 – Winning distance 1 length or further
11/15 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/15 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1

With 13 of the last 15 winners of this race having finished fourth or better last time out then this would be a plus for Come On Leicester, Firelight, Glass Slippers, Gypsy Spirit, Light My Fire, Queen Jo Jo, Queen Of Bermuda and Summer Daydream. Looking at the 2 year-old trainer track stats then Karl Burke (27%), William Haggas (50%) and Andrew Balding (100%) standout. Burke runs Little Kim, Haggas Queen Of Bermuda and Balding Firelight. Of that trio, the last two are respected but it’s the Haggas runner – QUEEN OF BERMUDA – that just edges it. This March-born filly was a good Listed winner in France two runs ago and followed that up with a one length second (Group Three) at Chantilly to the classy Soldier’s Call three weeks ago. Yes, this is her first try over 6f (all 7 runs over 5f) but she stayed on well last time to suggest it’s within range. She handles a bit of cut too and the form of her recent second has since been franked with the winner landing the Group Two Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster last week. With the Archie Watson yard training Soldiers Call then they should have an idea where they stand with their Shumookhi so is another to note after running fifth in the Flying Childers last time, while the Kevin Ryan-trained Glass Slippers has done little wrong in winning her last two (beat Light My Fire last time) and deserves to take her chance in this better grade.

3.50 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Failed to win their last race
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or more
10/16 – Had 7 or more runs that season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Rated 90-100
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/16 – Had raced at Ayr before
8/16 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (3) last time out
8/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/16– Winning favourites (2 winning favs since 1980)
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/1
Note: The 2017 renewal was staged at Haydock

With ALL of the last 16 winners of the Ayr Gold Cup having raced in the last 6 weeks this is a good stat to have on your side. The likes of Perfect Pastime, George Bowen, Major Jumbo, G Force, Naadirr & Goring would all have this as a negative. It’s also been a bad race for the favourites – with just two market leaders since 1980 winning. 11 of the last 16 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight too so the bottom seven in the card (19-25) have this to overcome. Horses aged 4 and 5 have done best too – winning 10 of the last 16, while we’ve only had five horses since 1980 aged 6 or older. The Silver Cup, run earlier on the card, will give us some vital draw clues so it’s always worth looking back on that race. Trainer Kevin Ryan has done well in the race in recent years too and is mob-handed again with Tommy Taylor, Teruntum Star, Naadir & Major Jumbo running for his yard. Of that bunch the consistent MAJOR JUMBO (e/w) should not be far away. There has been support in the week for the Roger Fell-trained Muntadab, but at 6 years-old I just feel he’s too old. Growl and Flying Pursuit are others that will be popular in the betting, as will the Irish raider – Son Of Rest. This 4 year-old could be thrown-in at the weights after his close second to Havana Grey last weekend in the Group One Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes and prior to that was a fair third in a Group Three. He’s rated 101 but having run the 111-rated Havana Grey to ½ a length last time then punters are sure to latch onto him. He could bolt-up on that form, but with this being a poor race for favourites I’m happy to look elsewhere. GUNMETAL (e/w) is one of the others that catches the eye for me. This David Barron-trained 5 year-old was a top winner of the Great St Wilfrid last time out and despite being up 7lbs for that won with just under 3 lengths to spare. He’s won on good-to-soft ground too, plus draw 15 means he’s got options from the start. The experienced Joe Fanning will be looking for his first win in the race, but trainer David Barron is no stranger to landing this prize after taking it in 1996 with the talented Costal Bluff.

 

NEWBURY: It’s Dubai Duty Free Day in Berkshire…………..

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.45 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y ITV4

14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Won from stall 7 or higher
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
12/16 – Won at least twice previously
11/16 – Won over 1m2f previously
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/16 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
9/16 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
4/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint, 1 Co)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team-up here with Adamant, who was a good winner at Chelmsford last time out. He’s up 8lbs for that so more is needed in this higher-graded race but looks a horse going the right way. Stylehunter, Beringer and Mountain Angel are others to note but it’s hard to get away from the Andrew Balding runner here – PIVOINE. This 4 year-old dotted-up at York last month and should have more to come. Yes, a 5lb rise makes life harder and there is no Jason Watson claiming 3lbs this time either. However, he travelled really well that day and looked to have a bit up his sleeve. The first-time blinkers clearly helped and with that headgear on again he’s taken to continue his rise up the ranks – the in-form Oisin Murphy takes over in the saddle. Of those at bigger prices FIRST NATION (e/w) could be worth an interest too. The Charlie Appleby yard have a cracking 30+% strike-rate with their 4+ year-olds at the track, while I think he’s better than recent runnings suggest. He was a beaten favourite last time at York but was slowly away that day and was never really able to recover. The drop back in trip looks interesting too with 3 of his 4 runs over this trip resulting in solid seconds.

2.20 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

16/16 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
15/16 – Priced 9/1 or less
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Had 4 or more career wins
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Raced at Newbury before
8/16 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/16 – Had won a Group race before
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Trained by David Simcock (including last 3 runnings)
3/16 – Raced at York last time
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Sir Michael Stoute took this race in 2009 and 2014, and with Mirage Dancer he’s got another leading chance. This 4 year-old was an easy winner of the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood last time out and heads into the race as the top-rated. He does, however, have to give weight away to the rest and that might not be easy – especially having to give 3lbs to last years winner – DESERT ENCOUNTER. This David Simcock runner won this race by a head 12 months ago and after a recent Listed win at Windsor looks primed to go close again. In fact, the Simcock camp have landed this prize for the last three years – all with different horses – so it’s clearly a pot they love to target. Of the rest, recent Doncaster winner – Euginio – can go well too but does have a bit to find on these terms with the two already mentioned. Desert Skyline can’t be ruled out either, while the Chester Vase winner – Young Rascal – who we last saw running 7th in the Epsom Derby is the only other course and distance winner in the field. Connections have taken their time with this classy colt and if back to the form of his Chester win then would certainly have a big say.

2.55 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

13/16 – Won from draw 5 or lower
13/16 – Raced 3 or more times
13/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
12/16 – Won over 6f previously
12/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Foaled in March or later
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Favourites (or joint) to win
7/16 – Won exactly two races before
6/16 – Won by an April foal
5/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/16 – Won their previous race
4/16 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/16 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Maybe not the best renewal of the Mill Reef, but there are still some interesting 2 year-old trainer track stats to note. Firstly, the Clive Cox (Konchek) and Andrew Balding (Shine So Bright) yards have poor records with Cox only 2 from 67 and Balding 2 from 49 with his juveniles here. In contrast, the Aidan O’Brien yard are 1-from-1 so their The Irish Rover is sure to attract support with Ryan Moore riding too. This 2 year-old ran well for much of the way in the valuable Weatherby’s Racing Bank contest at Doncaster last week so the drop back in trip will help. Rated 108 then he’s got the highest mark in the field and was a good winner over course and distance here back in May. The return to the Berkshire track could spark him back to life as since that victory he’s failed to win and overall his career form reads just one win from seven. With that in mind, he’s likely to find an improver too good again here. With that in mind – step forward GARRUS. Yes, this Jeremy Noseda runner has a bit to find based on the ratings but with just three career runs might have more to come. He’s won his last two and dotted-up at Newcastle by just over 4 lengths last time and is clearly well-regarded to be making the leap into this company so soon. Jim Crowley has been booked to ride. TRUE MASON and Marie’s Diamond have the form to go well too, especially the last-named after he was a fine third in the Group One Prix Morny in France last time out – he should be in the mix for the Karl Burke yard who have won this race in 2008 and 2014, and is worth an interest too.  Of the rest, the John Gosden yard also do well with their youngsters at the track (26%) so their two entries – Kessaar and Marhaba Milliar – command respect too.

 

3.30 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

16/16 – Raced four or more times that season
14/16 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
14/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
13/16 – Won a Listed or Group race before
12/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/16 – Won over 5f previously
11/16 – Aged 5 or younger
11/16 – Won 4 or more times
8/16 – Previous Group race winners
6/16 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 6 winners)
6/16 – Won their last race
5/16 – Favourites
4/16 – Mare winners
Take Cover won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

The popular sprinter – TAKE COVER (e/w) – won this race 12 months ago and this could easily be his final race. At the age of 11 he’s had another top season and wasn’t beaten far in Ireland last weekend in a Group One so the drop back in grade will help. Trip and ground are fine, plus he’s a horse that takes his racing well so the fact he ran just 6 days ago is not a big worry. It would be great to see him go out on a high, so I’ll take him to blast out the stalls in his normal fashion and prove hard to get by. Of the rest, the promising Equilateral got back to winning ways in effortless fashion at Leicester last time out but, really, I’d like to see him back-up these good runs as he’s flopped a few times in the past. The speedy El Astronaute will have the assistance of Frankie Dettori and looks sure to run his normal race too. He’s rarely out of the first four and despite this being a harder race looks sure to be in the mix. Sioux Nation is the highest-rated in the field and finished third (just ahead of Take Cover) last time in Ireland so based on that effort shouldn’t be far away either – with just 1 from his last 8 he is, however, not an easy horse to win with so is overlooked. Judicial is a proven course and distance winner too and if bouncing back from his Nunthorpe run (13th) he’d have a say back in this grade, but with 9-4 in weight does have to concede weight all-round. Hit The Bid and Mr Lupton are others to consider, but we all love a happy ending so I’ll stick with the popular TAKE COVER to go out on a high and repeat what he did in this race last year.

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend
TQ Team