TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th April 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th April 2018

 

  • Sandown: The Jump Season Ends Today……..
  • ITV Racing: Action at Leicester & Haydock Too…….
  • Trainers Quotes: TQ View Ends The Month In Style……….

 

 

Hi, so the curtain comes down on another jumps season this Saturday at Sandown with their Jumps Finale Fixture. A decent card to wave goodbye to the 2017/18 campaign for the hedge hoppers though, and we even get a chance to see one of the stars of the season – Altior – in action in the Celebration Chase.

Yes, Henderson’s Champion Chaser will be looking to win the race for a second year in a row and cement his place as many people’s idea as the ‘horse of this season’. It looks a fairly straight-forward task for Altior, who can take this before having a well-earned rest – exciting times ahead in the 2m Chase division though with potential clashes with the likes of Douvan and Footpad possibilities.

Other horses that can certainly stake a claim as being the ‘horse of the year’ are the versatile Tiger Roll, who not only added the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country to his haul of wins at Prestbury Park but he also went on to land a thrilling Aintree Grand National. Let’s just hope this tough end to the season doesn’t leave it’s mark and he’ll be back as good as ever next term.

Or maybe the Gold Cup winner – Native River – was your highlight in what was an epic battle at Cheltenham with Might Bite. The rivalry is set up nicely for next season here too with Might Bite, who went into win the Aintree Bowl earlier this month, and let’s not forget the Gold Cup runner-up also landed the King George back in December – maybe he’s your horse of the season.

A case can also be made for Buveur D’Air after becoming the first horse since Hardy Eustace to win back-to-back Champion Hurdles – he should be back next season as well as he looks to defend his crown for a second time and become the first horse since the mighty Istabraq to win the race three years on the spin!

Anyway – it’s been another top season and with Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott dominating a lot of the big races on both sides of the Irish Sea then Nicky Henderson will, once again, have his work cut out next season – roll on Nov 2018!

Yes, we’ll have a bit of summer jumping action to keep things ticking over but really after Saturday it’s flat all the way. The Newmarket Guineas Meeting is next weekend, while with the May Chester Meeting and York’s Dante Festival next month too, then there’s plenty to look forward to for flat fans.

Before that we’ve bundles to get stuck into with SIX LIVE races this Saturday from Sandown, Leicester and Haydock and we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quote: TQ VIEW BACKERS REWARDED……YET AGAIN!

It’s been another top week for the TQ yards and in particular the TQ View selections.

It was the turn of the Gary Moore and Tim Vaughan yards to reward TQ VIEW backers this week as their GOLDSLINGER (9/4) and BENNACHIE (2/1) were top winners for both yards.

Goldslinger was given a forceful ride from the front by Jamie Moore to land the odds at Newton Abbot on Monday and fresh with those winnings TQ members got involved again on Wednesday with Tim’s Bennachie winning at Taunton under a well-timed ride from Alan Johns.

So – top stuff yet again and another example just how valuable the TQ info is to members!

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

“Bennachie – Looks my best chance on the day. Won well last time at Plumpton and escapes a penalty for that 7 length win. Ground is fine and this slight step up in trip is also fine – only slight niggle is if this is a bit soon (10 days) but the horse seems well at home so all the signs are there for another big effort.” 1st 2/1 Tim Vaughan (TQ VIEW)

“Corazon Espinado – Found his form this Winter and been going the right way. This is much different and he probably would not want any easing in the ground but worth a try in his back garden in a race we won last year with a similar horse. Top rider booked and might go well at a big price.” 1ST 14/1 Simon Dow

 

“I am hoping that drying ground will bring improvement in GOLDSLINGER. However, GOLDSLINGER was hampered when last running at Fontwell and showed tenacity in running onto be third from way back. If GOLDSLINGER is suited by the ground today, then on the back of his last run he should surely have solid each-way claims” 1st 9/4 Gary Moore (TQ VIEW)

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

Be a fly-on-the-wall at the UK’s TOP yards…

Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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SANDOWN: Curtain Comes Down On The Jumps Season…..

 

1.50 – bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 29% record over hurdles at the track
Trainer Philip Hobbs has a 26% record over hurdles at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 21% record over hurdles at the track
Trainer David Pipe is just 3 from 43 (7%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams is just 1 from 33 (3%) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill is just 1 from 32 (3%) with her hurdlers at the track

TQ VIEW: A very tough race to get the LIVE action started at Sandown with some very promising novices on show. Many recent winners that you can make cases for and with these horses still on the upgrade then it’s tricky to call just how much more improvement some of these will show between their last runs to now. The first thing to note is that we’ve just one proven course and distance winner in the field – Notre Ami – who was a good winner here back in February. This 7 year-old has since won a Class 4 Novices Hurdle at Kempton but it is worth pointing out those wins came with significant cut underfoot so the quicker ground might not be totally ideal. With just 3 hurdles winners from 43 at the track the David Pipe runner – Friday Night Light – is not for me. But, in contrast, the Philip Hobbs yard do well here with a 26% strike-rate and they are certainly having a much better end to the season. With that in mind, their consistent SHOW ON THE ROAD, who was an easy 11 length winner at Exeter last time out, is the first one I’ll want to have on-side. This 7 year-old has finished in the top three in 6 of his 7 hurdles starts and a 7lb rise for that recent easy win looks fair. He’s got form on all ground so there should be no issues on that score, while the champion jockey – Richard Johnson – is an obvious plus in the saddle. The Gary Moore-trained Ar Mest was going well last time at Sandown when falling late on and there was a good chance this 5 year-old would have won that day. If none-the-worse for that tumble he’s respected. Oistrakh Le Noir looked to be all over the winner at Newbury a few starts ago and seemed to down tools and is also held by another runner – Act Of Valour – based on his recent Fakenham start. Act Of Valour won by just over 6 lengths that day and certainly went into many a notebook for that performance – he’s one of two decent chances for the Nicholls team, with Mont Des Avaloirs, who was a good winner at Market Rasen last time, being the other. Anything the Nicky Henderson yard run shouldn’t be overlooked either as they yard boasts an excellent 29% strike-rate with their hurdlers here – Burrows Edge and Grapevine are entered but it remains to be seen if they make the final line-up. Taxmeifyoucan and Kelpies Myth are interesting Northern raiders that have done little wrong in recent races, while but, for me, BALLYMOY is the other of interest. The Nigel Twiston-Davies camp had several winners up at Perth in midweek so their horses are clearly in decent order at the moment but the interesting factor here is that jockey Daryl Jacob would have had the pick of riding this one or Oistrakh Le Noir – he’s picked Ballymoy. It might not have been that hard a choice to be fair with Ballymoy dotting up by 21 lengths last Bangor last time but with just four career runs there looks to be more to come now he’s found the winning habit. A fifth to Kalashknikov at Wetherby back in November looks a decent effort now after what that horse has gone onto do, while should the ground dry out then that’s ok too after running well on a good surface last year. Highway One O One is another that is respected while with a 21% strike-rate with this hurdlers at the track the Alan King-trained Jaboticaba might be able to run a lot better than last time and also than his odds suggest.

2.25 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f ITV

Just 4 previous running
Menorah (Owned by Diana Whateley) won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
4/4 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
4/4 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
4/4 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Irish bred
4/4 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
3/4 – Ran at Aintree last time out
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom George is just 2 from 26 (8%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies is just 3 from 52 (6%) riding chasers at the track

TQ VIEW: This has been the Philip Hobbs benefit race in recent years – he’s won it for the last four seasons – all with Menorah. That horse is retired now but the same connections could have Garde La Victoire here, who would make a certain amount of appeal. This 9 year-old is a past course winner but the big ‘if’ is whether he’ll stay this 2m6f trip. He does much of his running between 2m 2m4f these days but the better ground would certainly help him getting home if he is to line-up – with the yard’s top record in the race then he’s one for the shortlist. This season’s King George runner-up – Double Shuffle – is the highest-rated in the field on 166 and probably deserves to win a race like this. He’s the clear one to beat based on the fact he also gets weight from a lot of the others but, for me, he just doesn’t win enough. He’s got his head in front just once from his last 12 and was also beaten by another of today’s runners – TOP NOTCH – at Ascot earlier this season, so is overlooked. Top Notch was giving away 3lbs that day too so the 6lbs this Nicky Henderson-trained runner has to concede here doesn’t worry me too much. He also bypassed Cheltenham and Aintree so has been freshened up for this after we last saw him being beaten at Ascot to Waiting Patiently. He’s much better than that run though and the fact he’s been off for 2 ½ months suggests he might had had a niggle there and a few excuses. Add in that he’s a proven course winner after landing the Scilly Isle Novice Grade One here last year then we know the track will suit too. This 7 year-old is expected to get back to winning ways as the season draws to a close and set up another decent campaign next term. The Nicholls camp have two lively chances too. Alcala is their first one but returns from a 6 month break and does have a bit to find on these terms with the principles, while Art Mauresque would enter the mix if running to the level that saw him run Waiting Patiently to 8 lengths at Kempton back in January.
3.00 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
11/15 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
10/15 – Rated 160 or higher
8/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourite
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017
Special Tiara won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

TQ VIEW: This shouldn’t take long. In short, it would be one of the shocks of the jumps season if the current Champion Chaser – ALTIOR – isn’t taking this and backing up his win in the race from 12 months ago. As we all know he’s been one of the superstars of the jumps campaign this term and – barring accidents, or a mega below-par showing – he WILL be making it 9-from-9 over fences here. Nicky Henderson’s 8 year-old has returned this season after his wind op in better form than ever (if that’s possible) and the way he disposed of both Politologue and Min at Newbury and Cheltenham in his last two races suggests his ‘bomb-proof’ profile is going to be around for a bit longer yet! He’s rated 175, which is 15lbs clear of the next best and 2015 winner of this race – Special Tiara – and having bypassed Aintree with this race in-mind then he’ll also head here fresh from a 45 day break. Of the rest, Ar Mad has proven course and distance form here but has rather lost his way since showing a lot of promise in 2015 but at only 8 years-old does till have a bit of time on his side. Gods Own is a stalwart in these races and despite often falling just short won’t mind the ground is certainly a big contender for second. However, the 6 year-old Paul Nicholls runner – Diego du Charmil – took another step forward when beating Petit Mouchoir last time out at Aintree and if building on that then that’s certainly decent enough form to see him follow Altior home in the runners-up berth. All-in-all it should be a walk in the park for Altior with the remaining five runners having a race, within a race, to see who can land the silver medal here.

3.35 – bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

15/15 – Had raced in the last 56 days
14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had won over 3m or further before
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
10/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Officially rated 140 or higher
9/15 – Had raced in the last 25 days
8/15 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/15 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Won last time out
0/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
22 of the last 27 (81%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
TQ VIEW: This race has been a graveyard race for favourite backers in recent years – with Beau (2000) – the last market leader to land the spoils – at this stage the likes of Missed Approach, who we last saw winning the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and Blaklion, who was well-fancied in the recent Grand National, are set to be at the front of the betting market. Missed Approach will love the stamina test this race provides and fair-play to connections who also stick with his amateur jockey – Mr N McParlan – who rode him at Cheltenham last time too. An 8lb hike in the ratings makes life a lot harder though but he’s a horse that has clearly benefitted by a recent wind op (had this before Cheltenham) and with only 10 races over fences (placed 6 times) he could have more to offer. Blaklion is another that’s had a recent wind op after getting trounced two starts ago at Haydock. He also got no further than the first fence in the National last time so there are a lot of unknows to answer still. He does, however, have a monster 11-12 to carry and with 22 of the last 27 winners carrying less than 11st then he’s got this trend to overcome and overlooked for me. With 73% of the last 15 winners aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old then this age bracket looks the one to focus on and if this is to be repeated then of the 20 runners we are left with 13. Looking at the trainer stats then the Stuart Edmunds yard boasts a decent 40% strike-rate at the track so his Domesday Book looks interesting. This 8 year-old was last seen winning the Kim Muir at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival so has clearly had issues since but popped at 40/1 that day and was also well-suited by the good ground on that occasion. If fully tuned-up for this return could go well at a nice price with Gina Andrews getting the leg-up, but it is worth noting that all of the last 15 winners had raced within the last 56 days. The 11 year-old Houblon Des Obeaux was well-fancied for the National last time too but only got as far as the sixth fence. Off a mark of 142 he’s well-handicapped on old form and is a proven course winner here but clearly isn’t getting any younger. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race four times before, with the most-recent in 2015. He tries this year with Present Man, who had a good start to the season but his form seemed to tail off. A recent break is sure to have done the horse good and he’s gone well fresh before – however, off a mark of 147 he’ll need a career-best here. The Nicky Henderson camp boasts a decent 24% record here with their chasers so SUGAR BARON (e/w) is the first one for the shortlist. The yard won this in 2014 too, while this horse was seventh in this 12 months ago. He gets in off the same mark but was actually only beaten 2 ½ lengths that day. He’s now another year older at 8 years-old and should be spot on for this after running in the Kim Muir last time out. This will only be his fourth race since running in this 12 months ago and I suspect this has been a firm target for him all season – Nico de Boinville rides. Trainer Peter Bowen has a +37 level stakes profit at the track but that was mainly due to his 40/1 winner of this race last year – Henllan Harri. This 10 year-old is the first reserve so there is a chance he’ll get in to defend his title but is up a massive 9lbs from last year’s head victory so has it all to do. Bowen also has Minella Daddy, who gets in with just 10-2 and can be expected to be seen in a much better light on this better ground – he can go well. The Pipe stable are another that do well at the track, with a 29% record with their chasers, so their course winner Rathlin Rose can be considered while Carole’s Destrier and Benbens are other proven course and distance winners in the field. After a dire season there have been signs in the last few weeks the Philip Hobbs team are set to end the campaign well and they’ve won this race a few times in the past. They have Rock The Kasbah going here, who was another that figured well in this race last year. He was a close-up sixth 12 months ago so can be expected to go well again but is racing off a 7lbs higher rating this time. But the other pick has got to be THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w). This horse landed this race two years ago so we know the track and trip are fine, plus he’s a massive 13lbs lower this time. He was also a fair 9th in the race last year off a 13lb higher rating too and this year gets in with only 10-0 to carry. Yes, with Blaklion in the race he’s 3lbs out of the handicap but having won the race with 10-12 then he must have a big chance two years later with only 10-0. Yes, he’s not quite built on that win but was a fair sixth in the Kim Muir two starts ago and we can ignore his last run when unseating his rider at the first fence in last Saturday’s Scottish National.

 

 

ITV RACING: Also Action From Haydock and Leicester………………………………

 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)
2.05 – Best Odds Guatanteed At 188Bet Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 5 or younger
5/5 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
4/5 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
4/5 – Won over 7f in the past
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
3/5 – Irish bred
3/5 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/5 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer William Haggas has won the last 2 runnings
Trainer Richard Hannon won the race in 2015
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 21% (+57) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 5 from 144 (3%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 2 from 41 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Easterby is just 2 from 37 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
TQ VIEW: Just the five previous runnings to look back on but a few key trends building up. The Tom Dascombe camp have a decent strike-rate at the track and boast a +57pt profit with their older horses here too. With that in-mind their course and distance winner – Calder Prince – can’t be overlooked. This 5 year-old was an easy 6 length winner at Wolverhampton earlier this month on the AW and with that run under his belt will head here fit and well. He is, however, up 11lbs here and also doesn’t have a 3lb claimer riding this time so is really 14lbs worse off in this better graded race. He did do it nicely though so can be expected to go well but has struggled to win in and around this sort of mark in the past so that would be a slight worry. The Kevin Ryan yard are only 2 from 41 with their older horses here so that doesn’t bode well for their Lualiwa, who was a good winner last time out at Musselburgh, but is also 7lbs higher this time. Looking at the trends, then with four of the last 5 winners coming from stalls 1-5 (inc) and also carrying between 8-7 and 9-5 then applying these leaves just four – Lualiwa, who we’ve already ruled out based on the poor Kevin Ryan track form, Robero, Safe Voyage and Rene Mathis. All three are at prices to suggest you could have small interests in them all but bottom weights – ROBERO (e/w) and SAFE VOYAGE (e/w) – get the nod. The first-named returns from a 6 month break but has gone well after a lay-off in the past and is also back down to his last winning mark (90). Yes, the Easterby yard could be in slightly better form but this 6 year-old gets in here with just 8-9 to carry and in what looks likely to be soft ground that will help. Safe Voyage also returns from a break (10 months) but is also another that has a nice low-weight (8-7). He’s won in good-to-soft ground so conditions should be fine and with just seven runs on the turf (13 in total) then he’s a horse that should have more to give. Jockey David Egan, who claims a further 3lbs, has been booked to ride. Of the rest, it goes without saying that proven course winner Mijack will be popular too after a good win at HQ last week but a 6lb hike in the ratings means more is needed and will need a career-best effort off this rating.

 

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

2.45 – totepool EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV

9/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/9 – Last ran 2+ months ago
7/9 – Irish bred winners
7/9 – Officially rated 107 or higher
7/9 – Won at least twice in the past
7/9 – Had won over 7f in the past
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/9 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/9 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

TQ VIEW: Trainer Hugo Palmer, who is 2 from 4 with their older horses here, has won the last two runnings of this race so his Gulliver will be looking to add to that record. This 4 year-old seems to have a fair bit going for him but does have a bit to prove for me. His last three career wins have all been in handicaps so I feel he still has to make the step up to this Listed level – he’s also coming out of draw 1 and we’ve not seen a single winner from that stall in the last 9 runnings. The other yard that does well here with their older horses though is the Charles Hills camp (3 from 6, 50%) so their JALLOTA certainly looks to have a big say. Ryan Moore is a rare jockey booking for the yard and off a mark of 110 is weighted to go close being the third highest-rated in the field. Yes, he’s got a 175 day break to overcome but went well first time out (3rd of 9) in a Group Two last April on his first run back. Generally, he’s been running in better races than this and the last time he dropped back into Listed grade he won! He does, however, have to give 3lbs away to most of the others as he’s a Group Three winner but Ryan Moore in the saddle certainly makes up for that, so he still gets the call. Of the rest, Donjuan Triumphant sets the standard off a mark of 114 and was a fair third in this race 12 months ago. However, he was just over 6 lengths back that day and has run a bit below-par the last twice on the AW – one of which he was turned over at odds-on. The Roger Varian-trained EMMAUS (e/w) has won two of his three starts and should have more to come being from this powerful yard. He did well to get up last time after not getting much room and with another winter on his back there’s every chance he’s come on again – he’s got a bit to find on the ratings but looks to have the potential to do so and rates a solid danger to the selection. Downforce, Above The Rest and Kimberella are rated 109, 107 and 111 so if running to those marks can all be expected to make their presences felt too.

 

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team