TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 29th Sept 2018

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Friday 12th Oct 2018

 NEWMARKET: We Unravel The Cambridgeshire……..

HAYDOCK: Key Trends & Free Tips For Two LIVE Races……

TQ UPDATE: Mick Hits The Jackpot……………….

 

 

Hi,

Some nice winners from last week so we’ll be looking for more of the same this Saturday with the LIVE ITV action coming from Newmarket and Haydock. The Newmarket card takes centre stage with the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap as the feature – did you know that ALL of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or younger, while 13 of the last 16 winners carried 9st-4lbs or less in weight? The Middle Park, Cheveley Park and Royal Lodge Stakes are also top races from HQ to take in, so we’ll be covering them all. Add in two competitive handicaps at Haydock then there is plenty for flat racing fans to look forward to.

So, another top day to look forward to and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Mick Hits The Jackpot………….

Last week we saw the curtain come down on the career of the popular Dave Griffiths-trained Take Cover – but what a fabulous career this 11 year-old had. He was a winner of 15 races from his 49 starts and it was a credit to his trainer that kept him at the top level of sprinting for the whole of his career. During that time, he amassed just over £750k in total prize money and this season was a top winner of the Listed Beverley Bullet Stakes earlier this month. Top stuff!

It’s also been a cracking week or so with winners flying in all over the place and plenty of nice TQ VIEW winners too – including Chitra (1st 5/1), Jackpot Royale (1st 11/2) and Uber Cool (1st 17/2). Of that trio the improving Jackpot Royale, from the Mick Appleby, yard looks a horse to keep on the right side of after now winning his last three and the manner of the last win (2 ¼ lengths) suggests there is more to come from this 3 year-old.

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Uber Cool – Last seen running in the Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot so has had a nice break. I’m looking forward to seeing him out today as last time the trip (2m5f) just stretched him. Back to 1m6f here will suit and Ray takes off a handy 7lbs so despite this higher grade is weighted to go well. Ground is perfect so I think he’s got a solid each-way chance.” 1ST 17/2 JANE CHAPPLE-HYAM

 

“Glorious Poet ran well in Kempton last time out and has good form on soft going, so the return to turf shouldn’t be a problem. He is in good form and travelled up to Ayr overnight, so providing the journey hasn’t taken too much out of him then he should have another good e/w chance” 3RD 9/1 MARK LOUGHNANE

 

“Isango – Ran well at Windsor on debut over an inadequate trip (5th of 11). This will be more suitable today and she should like the track. Hopefully she can take a step forward.” 3RD 33/1 CHARLIE FELLOWES

 

“Sellingallthetime – Loves this place and ran well to be third here last time out. Same mark and trip but is up a grade so will need a bit more. Theo’s 5lb claim will help and the fact he loves the track so much must give him an e/w squeak if all 8 run but is 25 runs without a win now so despite often placed is not an easy one to win with.” 3RD 8/1 MICK APPLEBY

 

“Rydan – Frustrating summer for Rydan with good opportunities missed due to ground conditions. Resigned to appearing on the all weather today – however, RYDAN ran a good race at Salisbury last time out (3rd) so if he repeats a similar performance today he should have solid each-way claims.” 1ST 5/1 GARY MOORE

 

“Take Cover – Won this race last year and primed to go well again. The legend that is TC came out of his recent Ireland run well and wasn’t beaten far in that Group One (just under 2 lengths). Drop in grade here into Group Three helps and won’t mind the small bit of cut but hopefully not much more. Good draw in 3 too so confident of another big run. Each-way.” 2ND 9/2 DAVE GRIFFITHS

 

“King Ottokar – Is the most expensive yearling I’ve ever been sent and it’s clear to see why. He is a lovely strong colt with loads of ability. It’s a strong-looking race today so I am just looking for a nice debut and to get him to learn on the job. He’s one to note for the future but no matter what happens here will learn bundles for his debut.” 1ST 9/2 CHARLIE FELLOWES

 

“Robsdelight – Likes a bit of cut so any more rain would help – returns after 3 months off but is fit and well. Yet to build on his Redcar win back in May but is off his lowest handicap mark here so should have more to come. Each-way claims in a very open race.” 2ND 9/1 GAY KELLEWAY

 

“Jackpot Royale – In rude health at the moment and heads here having won his last two. Up 4lbs more looks fair but this is a harder race too. Having said that is a horse full of confidence at the moment and with a month off to get over that last run is ready to go again. Gerald Mosse rides for the first time so plenty of experience in the saddle too. Looks my best chance on the day.” 1ST 11/2 MICK APPLEBY

 

“Pour L’Amour finished down the field last time, but Richard Kingscoat felt he had her too far back & she should have been closer. We have decided to use Jess Cooley today, so her 7lb claim puts her well in at the weights & she rode her earlier in the season & got on well with her. If she can get a good position at the start then she should have an e/w chance again today “ 3RD 8/1 MARK LOUGHNANE

 

“Competitive enough race for HERMOSA VAQUERA today although she ran a sound enough race last time to suggest she could be thereabouts at the finish again today. Not ideal as the trip is again on the sharp side but HERMOSA VAQUERA is an honest enough mare who tries so I would again give solid each-way claims” 1ST 6/1 GARY MOORE

 

“Eric The Third – Been in cracking form this year and since June he’s yet to finish out of the first two from his last six runs (winning three times). Up another 4lbs from his last run (2nd at Fontwell) so more needed and we don’t have a 5lb claimer on this time either. Slightly shorter trip will help though as is another of mine that likes to get on with things. Is well after a month off too and ready to race again. 3 or 4 with similar chances but should go well again and looks to have decent place claims. “ 1ST 5/2 TIM VAUGHAN

“Chitra – Has won and been second since running in handicaps and should give another good account here. The better the ground the better her chance.” 1st 5/1 DANIEL KUBLER

“Angel Force – Ran well in a better race than this last time (6th of 12) so down another 3lbs would give us an obvious chance. We are also putting the blinkers on for the first time to help her focus and draw 2 looks ideal. Any more give in the ground is fine but all-in-all this looks her best chance for some time so hoping to be in the mix with a solid e/w run.” 1ST 4/1 DAVE GRIFFITHS

 

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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NEWMARKET: We Unravel The Cambridgeshire Handicap……

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends(ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/16 – Had won one or two races before
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
15/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Either US or Irish bred
12/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/16 – Had only won over 7f before
9/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

TQ VERDICT: The Mark Johnston, Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden yards all have good records in this race – winning it nine times between them in the last 16 years – and they are all represented again here. Johnston runs Victory Command, Gosden has Beatboxer, while O’Brien is mob-handed with three runners – Sydney Opera House, Mohawk and Cape Of Good Hope. Of the O’Brien runners their Cape Of Good Hope is the highest-rated on 106 and sets a fair standard after running second in the Group Two Superlative Stakes in July. Recent winners – Kadar and Kuwait Currency – look as if they could have more to come and can’t be ruled out for the Karl Burke and Richard Hannon yards, while Duke Of Hazzard is yet to finish out of the top four from six runs and is another the place players will latch onto. However, the call here is for Frankie Dettori to continue is good record in the race – he teams-up with John Gosden here to ride BEATBOXER. Yes, on ratings this 2 year-old has a bit to find but heads here 2-from-2 after wins at Sandown and Haydock so should have more to offer. Connections clearly feel he’s up to this level and the manner of his win last time out (won by 3 ¾ lengths) indicates just that. Of the rest, Arthur Kitt ran the useful Too Darn Hot to 4 lengths last time out at Sandown but with his conqueror that day also trained by Gosden then they should know where they stand with Beatboxer taking him on this time.

 

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

16/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
16/16 – Had won over 6f before
15/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/16 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs
11/16 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
9/16 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/16 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/16 – Winners drawn in stall 6
2/16 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Brian Meehan
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: Some big yards on show here as we see some potential stars of the future. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings and he’s got a great chance of adding to that record with Fairyland, Gossamer Wings and So Perfect all entered. All three are closely-matched but of the trio Fairyland might come out on top. She’s won three of her four starts – including beating The Mackem Bullet by a nose in the Lowther Stakes last time out at York. It’s interesting that Frankie Dettori rides Signora Cabello instead of the John Gosden runner – Angel’s Hideaway. This filly was a close second in the Prix Morny last time out in France, but prior to that had won four on the spin, including the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. She’s sure to be popular but I’d be worried that all her wins have been over shorter. The horse that beat her that day is, therefore, also a big player – PRETTY POLLYANNA – and off a rating of 117 is the highest in the field. She seems to just stay this 6f trip the better that day and it will be a shock if she’s not proving hard to beat here if running up to that level. The other horse that catches the eye though is QUEEN OF BERMUDA (e/w) after her easy Group Three win at Ayr last week. She travelled well through that race and powered away to win by an easy 2 lengths. Yes, this is a step up into a Group One and that also came in heavy ground, but she’s got winning form on a quicker surface too and for connections to be running her again so soon suggests she’s clearly come out of that race very well.

 

3.00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Won over 6f previously
14/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/15 – Won their last race
13/15 – Had run 3 or more times previously
13/15 – Won at least twice previously
12/15 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
11/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/15 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/15 – Favourites placed
5/15 – Ran at Deauville last time out
4/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Won by an Irish-based stable
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/15 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011 & 2017

TQ VERDICT: Another race Aidan O’Brien has a cracking record in – with five wins since 2000. He runs Sergei Prokofiev and TEN SOVEREIGNS in the race but it’s the last-named of that pair that looks their main plyer. This colt is 2-from-2 after wins at the Curragh and looks like being the latest Ballydoyle talking horse to come of the conveyor belt. Of the rest, the 112-rated Emaratty Ana has to be respected after landing the Gimcrack last time out at York, while with Legends Of War only ½ a length back in second he’s another to note. Rumble Inthejungle was sent off favourite for the Flying Childers last time but flopped. He’s clearly better than that and if that run can be overlooked would certainly be a player on his easy Molecomb win at Goodwood in August. Jash has done little wrong too after two wins from two, but this is a step up in grade. O’Brien’s other runner – Sergei Prokofiev – is certainly no back number either – he was a close third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and is better than his last run when last of five at the Curragh in the Phoenix Stakes.

 

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Won 3 or more times in their career
13/16 – Carried 9-4 or less
12/16 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
12/16 – Won from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
12/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/16 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/16 – Rated between 90-100
11/16 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Won their last race
10 of the last 12 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 22/1

TQ VERDICT: A monster 35 runners to go through here so the trends can help us a lot. With ALL of the last 16 winners aged 6 or younger then this knocks Examiner, Mythical Madness and Mistiroc out, while with 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 4 and 6 then I’m going to ignore the 3 year-olds in the race too – Wissahickon, Danceteria, Kenya, Ventura Knight & Stylehunter. The last horse older than 6 to win was Rambo’s Hall (7) in 1992. In terms of weight it’s 9st 4lbs or lower that seems to be the cut-off point so the top nine on the card will have this trend to overcome too. Winning at least three times in their career, having five or more runs that season and being placed fifth or better last time out are other key trends to note. Taking all those into account the ones that standout for me are KYNREN (e/w), VIA VIA (e/w), ZWAYYAN (e/w) and VIA SERENDIPITY (e/w). Jockey William Buick has been booked to ride the consistent Kynren and this 4 year-old deserves to win one of these big-field handicaps. He was a neck second in the Clipper Handicap at York last time and prior to that an excellent third in the John Smith’s Cup. He’s a versatile sort regarding the trip and with key trends like weight (9-3) and draw (22) on his side another bold showing looks on the cards. The James Tate-trained Via Via was freshened-up with a 3 month break at the end of May but returned last month with a solid second on the July course here. He kept on well to take second over a mile last time so the step up in trip should be within range, while the first-time blinkers clearly did the trick that day – they are on again here. Zwayyan hails from the Andrew Balding yard, who are having a cracking season but are also looking for their first win in this race. This 5 year-old was a fair second at Ascot last time out over a mile off this mark and looks worth a crack up in trip here today. Balding also runs recent easy York winner Pivoine, but he’s up a big-looking 8lbs for that win and it won’t be easy with 9-9 to carry. The final of the main picks – Via Serendipity – is closely-matched with Zwayyan after beating that one into third in a decent handicap at Ascot in August and is only 3lbs higher here. He’s also a course winner here at the track (last November), while Gerald Mosse catches the eye in the saddle. Draw 33 is fine and gets in here with 9-1 in weight. Of the rest, the John Gosden camp have a good record in the race so their runners Stylehunter, Tricorn and Wissahickon will be popular, especially the last-named with Frankie Dettori looking to follow-up his 1994 win in the race (Halling). We’ve a rare runner for Aidan O’Brien in the race – Kenya – so this is another to note, while Godolphin’s Very Talented was a smooth winner on his return at Chelmsford after 700+ days off and providing the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ doesn’t raise it’s head looks interesting too. Alfarris and Sharja Bridge are two more that have been popular in the build-up to the race in the ante-post markets, but both are others that seem to have their fair amount of weight. They will be looking to become only the second horses since 1996 to win with 9-7 or more on their backs.

 

 

HAYDOCK: It’s Dubai Duty Free Day in Berkshire…………..

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Smarkets Betting Exchange Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

10/11 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: A tricky handicap to unravel here with all 10 runners looking to have some sort of a chance. The Ralph Beckett-trained Mitchum Swagger will be popular after last seen running third in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in March. He acts with give and is a horse that clearly goes well fresh and is also a proven course and distance winner. The consistent Aquarium can be expected to be involved but is a horse that seems to place more often than win and is now 8 runs without a victory. Tim Easterby has a decent hand too with two runners – Just Hiss and Al Erayg – and with both having light weights then these are feared. However, it might be worth chancing M C MULDOON (e/w) and ALEMARATALYOUM (e/w) here at bigger prices. The first-named comes from the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard that have a decent 25%+ strike-rate with their 3 year-olds at the track and with only three career runs is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field. The horse was a good winner on debut over a mile but has since been highly-tried in better races over further – the drop in trip and class should help. The other pick comes from the Iain Jardine team and they do well at the track too (20%+). This 4 year-old is a proven course and distance winner that heads here in fine form after a good second at Ayr last weekend. A 3lb rise for that looks fair and is a horse that handles a bit of cut in the ground. A bit to prove in this grade but with just 8-9 in weight and form at the track then looks dangerous.

3.15 – Smarkets Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
11/11 – Had won over 5f before
10/11 – Aged 6 or younger
9/11 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
8/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/11 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
8/11 – Had won between 2-4 times before
7/11 – Rated between 92-96
7/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/11 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: With 9 of the last 11 winners coming between stalls 7 and 11 then AEOLUS, JABBAROCKIE, DAKOTA GOLD, SOIE D’LEAU and DIAMOND DOUGAL look very interesting. With 8 of the last 11 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old too then of those five DAKOTA GOLD and DIAMOND DOUGAL could be the answer. Dakota Gold comes from the in-form Michael Dods yard and was far from disgraced when running sixth in the Ayr Silver Cup last week. He’s a pound lower here but also down to 5 furlongs which based on the fact he led up well until the final furlong over 6 that day suggests the drop in trip is a big plus. Dods also runs Holmeswood, who is closely-matched with his stablemate (both rated 90) but it remains to be seen if draw 17 will be a help or hinderance to his chance. He’s nine races without success but as a result is starting to look well-handicapped too. Diamond Dougal gets in with just 8-6 in weight but is also a proven course and distance winner that is another that will like the drop back in trip after finding 6f stretching him last time out. Any rain is fine as he’s won in heavy ground but has also tasted victory on good ground. Of the rest, the in-form Tarboush is another to consider after three straight wins, while the likes of Poyle Vinnie, Confessional, Tommy G and Final Venture are regulars in these sort of big-field handicaps.

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team