- NEWCASTLE – Key Trends for the Northumberland Plate ………
- NEWMARKET – The ITV Cameras Head To HQ……….
- IRISH DERBY – Who’ll Win The Curragh Classic?…………..
- TQ: Berkley Bolts-up at 16/1 For Vaughan……….
So, that’s another Royal Ascot over with and as we head into the final week of June we are now almost into the second half of 2018 – wow!!
Plenty to look forward to in July though with the Coral Eclipse, Newmarket July Meeting and we are also back to Ascot for the King George – not to mention the 5-day Glorious Goodwood meeting towards the end of the month.
However, before that we’ve six more LIVE ITV races this Saturday to enjoy – four from Newcastle, where the Northumberland Plate is their feature, plus a Listed and Group Three contest at Newmarket.
We’ve also the Irish Derby over at the Curragh and with Harry Dunlop’s Knight To Behold flying the flag for the TQ yards in that Group One then will have all eyes on his Frankie Dettori-ridden 3 year-old across the Irish Sea.
All-in-all, a fascinating day to look forward to with SIX LIVE races to enjoy from Newmarket and Newcastle, plus the Irish Derby from the Curragh – as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!
Have a Great Weekend and enjoy the Sun!!
This Week At Trainers-Quote:
Vaughan Strikes with 16/1 Midweek Cracker………………
Some nice winners and some nice place returns this week, but the Tim Vaughan camp stole the show on Tuesday with their PRESENTING BERKLEY winning at Newton Abbot at a tasty 16/1.
When Tim told us during the morning that his horse was ‘in the zone at home’ then this was something that stood out and with the horse also being down in the ratings and dropped in grade then the signs were good for a decent run. The longer trip clearly suited, as well as the quicker ground, so this will open up a lot more opportunities for Tim’s horse and in this form is certainly one to look out for in the coming weeks.
Here’s what Tim told members……………………………..
“Presenting Berkley – Dropped in grade here and also down 4lbs from his last run. Will be much more at home on this quick ground too. Only 10-7 to carry, while we are trying him in the first-time tongue-tie today as we think that will help with his breathing. Bit of a fact-finding mission re the trip as we are up to 3m2f today but has run well over 3m on good ground in the past so we are hopeful on this front. If he enjoys it then it will at least give us some options going forward. Competitive race but certainly hoping for a much-improved run now on better ground and seems in the zone at the moment – small each-way chance at a big price but we’d be delighted if he stayed the trip well so we can open up some new races for him.” 1st 16/1 Tim Vaughan
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Live ITV Racing From Newcastle and Newmarket……………
NEWCASTLE: The Northumberland Plate Takes Centre Stage……
12.20 – Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
15/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Had won between 1-4 times before
10/16 – Rated 90 or less
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
10/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/16 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/16 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16- Ran at York last time out
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/16 – Won last time out
12 of the last 14 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
7 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 10-15
TQ VERDICT: A competitive race here but the two that stand out for me are the Roger Varian-trained EKHIYAAR and the Stuart Williams runner – SWIFT APPROVAL. The first-named is making his AW debut here but there is no reason why it won’t suit. Yes, many will look at his last run when 11th (of 15) at Newmarket and be put off but he was actually only beaten 2 ½ lengths! That also came back at the start of May so the 2 month break would should have freshened him up and he’s gone well after a lay-off in the past. Add in that the Varian yard boasts a decent 25% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and that former champion jockey Jim Crowley is riding are further pluses. Swift Approval stays a bit further than this 6f trip so that will be handy in the closing stages but recent runs (3rd and 2nd) in this grade were solid efforts that make him fair value at a double-figure price. The return to the AW should be fine as he’s run well here in the past, while his overall sand form reads well – 15 runs, 7 top three finishes. The Stuart Williams yard are also going well at the moment with a 22% strike-rate at the time of writing. Of the rest, Hyperfocus is the only proven course and distance winner in the field so despite looking out of form the return to this venue makes him interesting for the Hugo Palmer camp. Saxton will attract support based on good recent runs, but the Tim Easterby yard are a poor 2 from 52 with their older horses here so that puts me off. Shanghai Glory and Summerghand are others to consider after fair thirds last time out, plus the consistent pair of Volatile and Raucous are two that are sure to make their presence felt.
12.55 – Betfred TV Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
16/16 – Had won over 6f before
14/16 – Unplaced last time out
14/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Yet to win a Group race
9/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/16 – Aged 5 or older
7/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/16 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/16 – Won last time out
Intisaab was second in the race 12 months ago
Aeolus won the race in 2015
9 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
TQ VERDICT: A very tight-looking Group Three here. The 2015 winner, Aeolus, will be looking to win back his title at the age of 7 but off a mark of 104 now does have a bit to find with several of the others in the race. The three 3 year-olds in the race – Cardsharp, Never Back Down and Yafta all get weight from the others so that helps. Of that trio, the Hugo Palmer-trained 3 year-old Never Back Down was a good Listed winner last time out at Newbury and the yard boasts a decent 21% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. He’s a bit more on his plate but looks a horse going the right way. Kimberella and Above The Rest are two of the older horses that often go well at this sort of level, while the Stoute-trained Dream Of Dreams can be expected to come on for it’s last run (7th) after a 159 day break. However, the calls here are INTISAAB, who was an excellent second in the race last year and the Godolphin runner – TOP SCORE. The first-named – Intisaab – was beaten just a head 12 months ago here and heads into the race off a similar preparation. He was 23rd in the Wokingham last year before running in this but managed to run 15th in that same Royal Ascot race this year. Draw 3 looks fine and jockey Danny Tudhope gets on well with the horse – he’ll be having his 44th career start. With a 27% record with their 4+ year-olds here then the Saeed Bin Suroor runner – Top Score – is the other pick. We last saw him running third to Jungle Cat at Meydan back in March and over this 6f trip has decent form figures 1-3-2-4-3. Yes, a 112 absence from the track might put some off but coming from this powerful yard he’s sure to be well forward for this decent prize.
1.30 – Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV
Two previous runnings
Dannyday (7/2 fav) won the race in 2016
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Winners came from stalls 11-16 (inc)
2/2 – Carried 9-8 and 9-9 in weight
The average winning SP in the last 2 runnings is 5/2
Trainer James Bethell has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer William Haggas is 2 from 4 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 25% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 1 from 31 with his older horses at the track
TQ VERDICT: Only two previous runnings of this but with both winners carrying 9-8 or 9-9 then there might be something building up on this weight trend – only Silver Concorde, Dannyday and Financial Conduct fit the bill. Both winners also came from stalls 11-16 (inc) so if you think that stat will continue then Davy’s Dilemma, Mirsaale, Sam Missile, High Command, The Grand Visir and Cool Sky are the ones to focus on. The David Simcock yard are just 2 from 30 at the track so their Financial Conduct has this to overcome. He is, however, having his debut for the yard after coming over from Ireland, where he’s been running well at Dundalk. The surface looks a plus and with a string of 1’s and 2’s next to his name is sure to be popular with punters. He’s got topweight of 9-10 though and that Irish form looks hard to translate – especially as he’s rated 9lbs higher than when last running and winning so he’s overlooked. The Ian Williams yard have a good record at the track with their older horses so their Cool Sky can’t be discounted but the two we’ll be going to war with here are DANNYDAY and THE GRAND VISIR. The first-named actually won this race 12 months ago and although he’s done little since wasn’t disgraced (beaten just 6 lengths) Ascot Stakes last week. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s clearly had this race as a firm target all season. Off just 4lbs higher than 12 months ago he can surely go well at a track and trip we know suits. The Grand Visir hails from the William Haggas camp that are 2 from 4 here at the track with their older horses. A recent win at Haydock sets him up nicely for this and a 4lb rise for that looks fair. Yes, this will be his first run on any AW surface but with winning turf form on good-to-firm there is every reason to think he’ll be fine on it. Finally, jockey Callum Rodriguez seems to like riding here – he’s got a 21% strike-rate on 4+ years-olds at the track so this mount DAVY’S DILEMMA off just 8-10, can’t be ruled out either and I’ve already mentioned he’s got a decent draw in 11.
2.05 – Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4
Past Northumberland Plate Winners
2017 – Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)
Key Northumberland Plate Trends
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
15/16 – Finished fifth or better last time out
14/16 – Came from stall 14 or lower
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/16 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/16 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/16 – Won their previous race
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 10 winners)
3/16 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/16 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 13.5/1
Note: The 2016 & 2017 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle
TQ VERDICT: Several key trends to note here – like 15 of the last 16 winners finishing in the top 5 last time out. Add in that 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or younger and came from stalls 14 of lower then these three stats alone should know a fair few out. Being run over 2 ½ furlongs then it’s no shock to see a lot of National Hunt trainers on show and with six of the last 16 winners of this race coming for a yard more famed for it’s jumpers then this is another thing to note. With this in mind, the Willie Mullins-trained Lagostovegas must enter the mix. He landed the Ascot Stakes last week over 2m4f and off just 5lbs higher must have every chance if translating that form to the AW. This will be his first run on a sand surface though and the Newcastle track will be a much different test. Off 9-0 in weight he’s respected but with just 11 days between races it would be a tough ask. The Roger Charlton runner – Withhold – is the one punters have been coming for all week and it’s easy to see why. This lightly-raced 5 year-old was an easy winner of the Cesarewitch last October and based on beating 33 others that day by just over 3 lengths the form is solid. However, he’s not been seen since – maybe to protect his handicap mark, but is still up 12lbs from that last win. Of course, he looks a huge player but also looks little value for a race of this nature. Natural Scenery was a close second in the race last year and is a proven CD winner at the track. He can be expected to go well despite some average runs of late. However, it’s hard to get away from the horse that beat him 12 months ago – HIGHER POWER. Tominator won the race in 2011 and 2013 but Higher Power will be looking to become the horse since Tug Of War landed back-to-back wins in 77 &78. He’s only rated a pound higher than last year and a recent second at Chelmsford last month should have him cheery-ripe for this. Since last year this James Fanshawe runner has also had a wind-op and with connections avoiding the temptation of Ascot then will head here fresh and ready to defend his crown. The other of interest is the Ed Dunlop runner – AMAZING RED. Jim Crowley catches the eye in the saddle, while with just 9-0 this 5 year-old ticks a lot of the key trends. He was last seen winning well over 1m6f at HQ and was a good winner over 2m at Kempton on the AW back in May so the trip and track are fine. He is, however, up 5lbs more this time but looks as if he’s still go more to offer over these extreme trips on the level and can go well again. Finally, I mentioned the good track form of jockey Callum Rodriguez during the last race (21%) – he rides Nakeeta here so of the bigger-priced runners might be worth a small interest.
NEWMARKET: Two LIVE Contests at HQ……………….
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)
1.10 – Betway Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV
16/16 – Never raced at the track before
14/16 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
9/16 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/16 – Came from stall 4 or lower
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
TQ VERDICT: Recent Goodwood scorer – Impulsion – will be a popular choice here after bolting up by 5 lengths that day. However, there are a few reasons to take her on here. Firstly, that win came on soft ground so the much quicker conditions are going to provide a different test, while the Roger Varian camp have only a 5% record with their juveniles at the track. In contrast, the Charlie Appleby (26%) and Mark Johnston (19%) yards do better with their 2 year-olds here so their entries – Strings Of Life and No Lippy – have to be respected. 14 of the last 16 winners had won over 5f or 6f before so the recent winners in the field – Strings Of Life, So Brave, On The Stage, No Lippy, Impulsion, Gyspy Spirit, Cotubanama and Beechwood Izzy have this stat on their side. The Richard Fahey yard won this in 2011 and also 12 months ago so based on this their Akela Moon, who has been second on both her career starts to date, can’t be ruled out either. She has been a beaten favourite both times so connections must like her and the step up to 6f (from 5f) could see her run a bit better. So Brave caught the eye when winning well at Lingfield on debut and is respected too but this is a step up in grade so more is needed. Ellheidi looks as though the step up to 6f will suit after running on over 5f on debut last time, while Royal Intervention was only run out of things close home over 6f at Lingfield on debut and can be expected to improve for the experience. However, the main call is the already-mentioned STRINGS OF LIFE. This Godolphin runner was only beaten 3 lengths in a Listed race at York last time but prior to that won well here on the Rowley. The step up to 6f looks sure to suit, while the Charlie Appleby yard (26%) and jockey James Doyle (36%) do very well training and riding 2 year-olds at this venue.
1.45 – Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4
14/16 – Won over 7f before
14/16 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
14/16 – Had at least 1 run already that season
12/16 – Aged 5 or younger
10/16 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/16 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 7 runnings)
Breton Rock (11/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: Being the only 3 year-old in the race then the Mark Johnston-trained Lake Volta gets a handy 9lbs from the others but he will need to bounce back from a poor showing in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last week (17th). The boys in blue of Godolphin took the pot last year with Home Of The Brave and will be looking to follow-up with Dutch Connection. This 6 year-old ran a blinder last month to be fourth in the Lockinge Stakes and that Group One form would certainly see him go well here – James Doyle rides, who has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds here. However, he’s since flopped though as a beaten favourite in the G3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock, while with 12 of the last 16 winners aged 5 or younger he’d also have this stat to overcome. But the Hannon camp have won this in 2011, 2012 and 2013 so their TABARRAK could be the answer. This 5 year-old was a close third in that already-mentioned Haydock G3 last time out so on that run has the beating of Dutch Connection, while the time before was a good winner of a Listed race. His form over this 7f is also impressive 2-1-2-1-2-UP-1-1-3 – so has only finished out of the top three once from 9 runs over it. Of the rest, the consistent Larchmont Lad can be expected to be in the shake-up but is a horse that seems to hit the frame more often than winning of late – is now 10 races without a victory, while the O’Meara camp also run So Beloved, who ran a blinder to be beaten just over 4 lengths in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes last week at Ascot – a run that makes him a big player too. Finally, Sir Dancealot has been running in some hot sprints of late so will find this return to 7f and the easier grade to his liking so is another that is sure to be popular in the betting, but I’ll stick with the Hannon yard to make it 4 wins from the last 8 runnings of this race – this time with Tabarrak.
IRISH DERBY: Who’ll Win the Curragh Classic………….?
Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)
5.15 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f
Recent Irish Derby Winners
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 – CAMELOT (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)
Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats
15/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/15 – Won by an Irish-based yard
13/15 – Won a Group race before
13/15 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Failed to win their last race
11/15 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
10/15 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 12 times in all)
7/15 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/15 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 4/1
TQ VERDICT: The powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be eying up a 13th win in the Irish Derby this Saturday and with four of the 12 runners it looks as if they might just achieve it. The Pentagon, Rostropovich and Delano Roosevelt all have outside squeaks but really their main hope is Saxon Warrior. This year’s 2,000 Guineas winner is still all the rage for this race despite flopping (4th) in the Epsom Derby last time out. He was sent off the 4/5 favourite that day but eventually went down 4 ½ lengths to Masar so does have to bounce back. He’s still got a bit to prove over this 1m4f trip, with all previous runs coming over a mile. Yes, breeding suggests he’ll be fine over the distance and from draw 1 last time he did have an excuse as that starting berth seems to be a graveyard for runners over 1m4f at Epsom. Ryan Moore continues tin the saddle and he’s also a proven course winner – albeit over a mile. He’s sure to go well and is certainly worth giving another chance too. He’ll be hard to beat but also looks poor value – considering there’s a horse in the race that finished two places ahead of him in the Derby – DEE EX BEE. This Mark Johnston runner has finished in the top three in 8 of his career starts now and only went down just over a length at Epsom last time. Okay, so he might also have a bit to prove over the trip, with all career wins coming over shorter but, for me, he battled on well last time, whereas Saxon Warrior seemed to rather plod on. Of the pair, he certainly looks the better value so this consistent performer gets the nod over Saxon Warrior, who is likely to be sent off odds on. Of the rest, a small saver on the Godolphin runner – OLD PERSION – is advised. He ran on well to take the Edward VII Stakes at Ascot last time out at Ascot – beating Rostropovich that day. That was his first try over 1m4f and also only his eighth career start so we can expect there to be more to come from this improving 3 year-old.
THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend