TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 31st March 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 31st March 2018
  • Haydock: Three Jumps Races To Take In…………..
  • Musselburgh: Flat Turf Action From Scotland…….
  • Irish Grand National: Key Trends To Help Find The Winner…….
  • Trainers Quotes: A TQ 1-2-3 On Another Top Week…….

 

Hi, well that was nice last Saturday – wasn’t it?

Hopefully you were all on Addeybb, who was a cracking winner for us in the Lincoln Handicap last week at Doncaster………. and really we never had a moments doubt! The William Haggas-trained 4 year-old travelled smoothly during the race just off the pace and when jockey James Doyle pressed the button the impact was instant! He bolted away from the 19 other runners to win by an easy 2 ¾ lengths and in the process give the Haggas camp their fourth win in the lucrative handicap.

Next stop Listed and Group company for Addeybb we think!

As we head into the Easter weekend the Saturday racing is not the best – we’ll admit that. However, with the Aintree Grand National Meeting now less then two weeks away then it won’t be long before we see a lot of the big jumping names back on the track, including Arkle winner – Footpad – who has been confirmed this week as running at Liverpool instead of staying in Ireland.

We’ve still got the ITV cameras heading to Haydock (jumps) and Musselburgh (flat) this Saturday though, with seven races spread across the two venues.

Oh, and as we enter National season we’ve also got the Irish version over at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday – we’ll cover that for you too with key trends and our idea of the likely winners.

So, bundles to get stuck into and we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes………We Only Had a TQ 1-2-3 This Week!!

With the weather having picked up in the last few weeks then the racing has been back on track and with that the TQ yards continue to reward members with top advice.

Before we get onto that, top stuff from our Mick Appleby in the AW Trainers’ Championship. At the time of writing he’s in a sustained battle with Archie Watson but by the time you read this hopefully he’ll have secured more winners and the title.

This week we’ve seen the continued form of the Jamie Snowden yard with Presenting Percy (1st 7/2) and his Some Day Soon (2nd 10/1) running crackers, while we had another TQ 1-2-3 – this time at Southwell with Red Touch (Mick Appleby), Spun Gold (Charlie Fellowes) and Fieldsman (Dave Griffiths) filling the first three home in a race there on Tuesday!

Top stuff and another example just how valuable the TQ info is to members!

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

“Dark Alliance – Even though this is only a 4 runner race, it is understandable that they are all under 4-1 in the market , with a few of them having their turn as favourite. We know our horse is in great form and conditions will suit but at around 9/4 it is difficult to be confident as these types of races other turn into tactical affairs. Glory Awaits has a lot of back class and if after his win last week he finds a return to form then will be hard beat, but we are hopeful we will be in the first 2 – but unfortunately not really a good betting race!” MARK LOUGHNANE 1st 15/8

“Oyster Card – Been quite frustrating and now 0-from-22 at fairly low-level races so that tells it’s own story. Having said that has shown glimmers of form that suggests he deserves to win a race. Return to Wolves is a plus as probably run his best races here and Oisin rides for the first time so let’s see if he can find the key. Has raced at Wolves three times now and each time never beaten further than 4 3/4 lengths so based on that must have some e/w claims. Stays a bit further than this 1m4f trip so that will be a bonus, while it looks a shocking race so that must give us all a chance!” MICK APPLEBY 1ST 16/1

“It Must Be Faith – Won well over this trip (6f) two starts ago at Chelmsford but found things happening a bit too quick last time over 5f. Hasn’t been an easy horse to catch right but seems to go well for the female riders so Nicola Currie, who also claims a handy 5lbs, gets the leg-up. Track is fine (has won here in the past) and draw three looks ideal. Only 3lbs higher than last win but Nicola’s claim actually means he’s 2lbs lower so based on that must have decent place claims here in an open race. The consistent Awesome Allan sets the standard.” MICK APPLEBY 1ST 9/1

“Red Touch – Ran ok last time off a break. Has come on well for that and this drop in grade will help. Well drawn in 3 and SDS a plus in the saddle. Acts well at the track and in this easier race then hopeful of a much better run than last time. Each-way claims.” MICK APPLEBY 1ST 7/2

“Archimedes – Been a busy horse over the winter – winning twice this year already. A bit disappointing last time here but we are back in grade here to a Class 6 (ran in a Class 4 last time). 10-2 to carry but down 5lbs in the ratings too and in a much easier race and from a good draw (4) then hopeful of a much better run. Hopeful and looks to have solid each-way claims.” DAVE GRIFFITHS 1ST 11/4

“Some Day Soon – ran in three bumpers in Ireland on soft ground. He’ll certainly appreciate the better surface here and goes well at home. He’s massively overpriced here in my opinion. Page rides and takes off a handy 5lbs too.” JAMIE SNOWDEN 2ND 10/1

“Presenting Pearl – Is a nice mare. She won her bumper in the autumn and then ran well in a Listed contest at Cheltenham (5th). She’s had a break to miss the worst of the ground and is in good form. She’s jumping well at home ahead of this hurdling debut and I’d hope she’s got every chance here.” JAMIE SNOWDEN 1ST 7/2 =================================================================================

Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

Be a fly-on-the-wall at the UK’s TOP yards…

Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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Haydock: Three LIVE Jumps Races To Take In……

 

2.05 – Smarkets Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m3f203y ITV4

Two previous runnings
Ballybolley won the 2016 & 2017 runnings
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2016 & 2017
Jockey Daryl Jacob rode the winner in 2016 & 2017
The last 2 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
The last two winners carried 11-5 in weight
One winning favourite
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 40% (12 from 30) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% (2 from 7) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Evan Williams is 0 from 11 with his chasers at the track
TQ VERDICT: Jockey Daryl Jacob has a good record in this race – winning it in 2016 and 2017 – so he’ll be trying to follow-up with CREEP DESBOIS here. This Ben Pauling-trained 6 year-old is only 2lbs higher for his recent neck second to Colin’s Brother at Leicester and that rates solid form. He acts with cut in the ground and with only three career runs over fences should have more to offer. Aloomomo ran a bit better last time but don’t be too fooled by that second as he was still beaten 20 lengths by the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Crievehill, who could also run here. Masterplan is a consistent sort but he was actually third in the at Crievehill race too so looks to have a bit to find. Twenty Eight Guns, Native Robin and Jarlath, who gets in here with a very light weight which would make him dangerous in the ground, are others to note, but the main call goes to Creep Debois.  

 

2.40 – Smarkets Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV4

Two previous runnings
Trainer Tom George won the race in 2017
Both previous winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
Both winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Tom George has a 29% (5 from 17) record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain is just 5 from 58 (9%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jennie Candlish is just 2 from 27 (7%) with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Only a few previous runs to go on here but it’s interesting that the Donald McCain camp are just 5 from 58 with their hurdlers at the track – with that in mind anything they run is overlooked. At this stage they’ve got Chti Balko, William Of Orange and Cousin Oscar. Both previous winners carried 1-4 or less in weight, while the Tom George yard often do well here with a 29% record with their hurdlers They run SUPER SID, who might be worth chancing despite flopping last time. He was sent off 9/2 that day so was clearly expected to run better than he did and it may hay been possible the ups and down of Chepstow didn’t suit. It would be a slight worry that the George yard are currently 0-from-18 at the time of writing but their decent track stats still suggest he might be worth risking. Before that bad run he’d shown promise to win at Southwell in December and then followed that up with a fair fourth at Market Rasen. The other of interest comes from the in-form Ian Williams yard – WOLFCATCHER. This 6 year-old ran a lot better to be third (of 14) at Kempton last month and off the same mark looks to have every chance of going close again as that ran also came off a 60 day break. Yes, that last effort also came on good-to-soft but should any further rain come then that’s fine having won on heavy too.   

3.15 – Smarkets Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y ITV4

Two previous runnings
No winning favourite yet
Both winners aged between 9-10 years-old
Both winners carried between 11-3 and 11-10
Trainer Tom George won the race in 2016
Trainer Donald McCain has a 31% (11 from 35) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% (2 from 7) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer David Pipe has a 19% (6 from 32) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom George is just 1 from 21 with his chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Abracadabra Sivola was a good winner last time out at Kempton but this Pipe runner is up another 5lbs here and also in a much better race. Yes, his very low weight would make him very dangerous but the runner-up from his last race (Invicta Lake) didn’t really frank the form in the week so he’s overlooked. In contrast to their hurdles record at the track, the Donald McCain yard do a lot better with their chasers here (31%), so if What Happens Now runs then this is a plus, while the stable’s overall current form is good. Tom George won the race in 2016 and could have Moss On The Mill, who was 6th in the race last year, heading to post this year. However, it is worth pointing out they are only 1 from 21 with their chasers at Haydock. POTTERS LEGEND often does well at this time of the year and could be the answer. Lucy Wadham’s 8 year-old look set to go close last time until falling at the last and if none the worse for that can hopefully make amends here. He was 7th in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy (Hennessy) earlier in the season and previous to that fall had run well to be fourth at Sandown in a decent handicap chase. Off a mark of 130 he’s looking well-handicapped at the moment, especially after running 4th in the Kim Muir last season off 139. Behind Time is another that will be popular with Barry Geragthy riding for his boss JP McManus. This improving 7 year-old was an easy 4 length winner at Uttoxeter recently and a 7lb rise for that looks fair. He looks a big player from the Harry Fry team.

 

Musselburgh: Flat Turf Action North Of The Border…

 

1.50 – toteplacepot Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) ITV4

One previous running
Twin Appeal (David Baron) won the race in 2017
Last year’s winner came from stall 4
Trainer Mick Easterby has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 20% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rowan Scott is just 2 from 39 (5%) riding older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The Rebecca Bastiman yard often do well at the track with their older horses so their Hayadh certainly can’t be ruled out and wasn’t disgraced in the Lincoln last Saturday (9th of 20). He ran well for much of the way and only faded in the final few furlongs so this drop back to 7f is a big plus. Set In Stone, from the Adrian McGuinness yard, was a good winner here back in September but failed to build on that next time off this higher mark and in this grade when only 6th of 8 and a beaten 6/4 favourite. Yes, I think the horse is better than that and it could that last outing came too soon. A six month break would have freshened her up and being a proven course winner is respected. The McGuinness camp also run Sharp Defence, who comes out of last year’s winning stall 4. Talking of last year’s winner, then we actually get a chance to see the current champ of this race – TWIN APPEAL – try and defend his title and he looks of interest. This David Barron-trained 7 year-old took this off a mark of 89 last year so off 85 this year, plus Ben Robinson’s 5lb claim means he’s 9lbs lower this time. Yes, Hayadh beat him by 2 ¼ lengths at Wolves last time but he’s weighted to reverse that form now, plus the return to the turf (won 5 times on the green stuff) will suit better – he’s one for the shortlist. The Mark Johnston-trained MASHAM STAR is the other horse to have on your radar after running the useful Second Thought to 2 ¼ lengths in a Listed race last time at Wolves. He drops back into handicap company on what looks a useful mark and really that recent form is what all the others have to aim at. If there is a slight concern it’ll be that he’s only 2 from 26 on the turf, but 2 from 7 on the AW so the jury is still out that he might be a slightly better sand horse these days – we’ll see.

 

 

2.25 – totescoop6 Borderlescott Sprint Trophy Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over 5f before
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Officially rated 97 or higher
7/10 – Had won 6+ times before
6/10 – Winning distance ½ length or less
6/10 – Won this after 5+ months off
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Came from stalls 4 or 5
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/10 – Trained by Bryan Smart
4/10 – Had won at Musselburgh before
3/10 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Ridden by David Allan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Desert Law (14/1) won the race in 2017
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 30% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is 2 from 5 (40%) strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 20% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rowan Scott is just 2 from 39 (5%) riding older horses at the track
TQ VERDICT: The Rebecca Bastiman-trained Royal Brave will be a popular winner with the race run in honor of their former stable star – Borderlescott. However, off a mark of 82 this 7 year-old have a fair bit to find with most of these so would have to improve bundles. So really, based on the ratings, it’s hard to look beyond the four that are rated in the 100’s – Caspian Prince, Alpha Delhini, Desert Law and Kylland Rock. All bar Caspian Prince come here off a break so their fitness has to be taken on trust but with a nice pot up for grabs there is every chance they will all be fully wound-up. Caspian Prince is now with Mick Appleby and with the yard having a 30% record at the track with their older horses then this is a plus. He’s a speedy sort that is also a proven course and distance winner but with 9-10 it won’t be easy giving weight away to all the others. Desert Law took this 12 months ago so based on that must be one for the short-list. He took this off a break last year so that’s a plus, however, at 10 years-old he’s not getting any younger. It’s also worth pointing out that he won the race on good-to-firm last year and despite having form with a bit of cut it will still be very different conditions. Draw 8 might also be a slight negative with ALL of the last 10 winners coming from 7 or lower. Kyllang Rock has been running in Listed and Group Three races with credit so is another big player. This 4 year-old is one of the least exposed in the field with just 14 career runs and seems to act on most ground. He won first time out last season too so everything looks in place for a big effort. However, the one I like here is ALPHA DELPHINI. This 7 years-old heads here having won his last two, including an easy 2 length win over course and distance last October. Off a rating of 107 (Caspian Prince 109) then he’s got the second highest mark in the race but actually gets 8lbs from Caspian Prince too. The ground will be fine and trainer Bryan Smart loves to target this race, having trained the winner in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2015.
3.00 – totesport.com Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
Trainer Richard Fahey won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
All previous winners carried between 8-0 and 8-9
All previous winners came from stalls 3-6 (inclusive)
No winning favourite yet
Trainer William Haggas has a 31% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Brown has a 29% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Baron has a 25% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 21% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 21% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 20% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is just 2 from 44 riding 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Only three past runnings but with all those winners carrying between 8-0 and 8-9 in weight then if this trend is to be repeated then only four fit the bill – Chingachgook, Shuhood, Hard Gift and Breaking Records. We also saw the three past winners come from stalls 3-6 inclusive – so the four that fit here are Ayutthaya, Chookie Dunedin, Miss Bar Beach and FAKE NEWS – it’s the last of that quartet, from stall 6, that I’m most interested in. From the David Barron camp that boast an impressive 25% record with their 3 year-olds here this horse caught the eye when winning very well at Wolverhampton recently. With just four career runs there should be more to come and running over a mile for the first time should also bring out more improvement – he certainly wasn’t stopping over 7f last time! Of the rest, the Richard Fahey team took this race 12 months ago so it’s no surprise to see them having three – Chingachgook, Indomeneo and Joe’s Spirit – all three command respect despite jockey bookings suggesting the Paul Hanagan-ridden Indomeneo might be their main one. Finally, Ayutthaya, from the Kevin Ryan yard, is also sure to be popular after winning very easily at Chester last September on just his third start. He looks set to go off favourite so is the one to beat and based on that recent win looks an above average sort. For those against him they might cling to the fact jockey – Tom Eaves – is only 2 from 44 riding 3 year-olds at the track.

3.35 – totepool Queen’s Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
2 of the 3 previous winners aged 7
Both previous winners returned a double-figure price
Both previous winners carried between 8-5 and 8-12
No winning favourite
All three previous winners returned double-figure prices
Trainer Brian Ellison won the race in 2015
Trainer Jim Goldie won the race in 2014
Carbon Dating (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 6 from 66 (9%) with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: Some familiar names on show in this stayers’ race, including the 2017 winner CARBON DATING (e/w) This 6 year-old took this off a mark of 101 last year so off 100 looks to have a very similar chance. He’s one of just two proven course and distance winners in the field so based on that is one for the shortlist. In fact, he’s also got the 3lbs claimer Rowan Scott riding so is actually 4lbs lower than last year. Yes, he’s not won since but has been contesting some hot races since, including several over in Dubai – he should find this easier. Mount Tahan, Night Of Glory and American Gigolo were all good winners last time and are sure to be popular in the betting as a result. Sir Chauvelin was a fair sixth in the race 12 months ago and with the Jim Goldie yard winning this is 2014 too then he’s respected. He didn’t get the best of runs 12 months ago too so would have probably got a bit closer to the winner – it is worth noting he is 5lbs higher this time though. Clever Cookie is a veteran in these staying races and off a mark of 108 could be dangerous based on his old form. He is, however, 10 years-old now so does look on a bit of a decline with his last win coming back in 2016. So, as well as last year’s winner, the other one I like here is TIME TO STUDY. This improving 4 year-old stayer rose up the ranks last season for the Mark Johnston team and rounded off last season with an easy win at Newbury. This trip looks ideal with this only blot coming when tried over further in the Cesarewitch last October, while with another winter on his back this young stayer should be a lot stronger too. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the 155 day break isn’t too much of a concern, especially as the Johnston yard are also firing in winners at a 23% strike-rate at the time of writing.

 

Irish Grand National: Key Trends To Find The Winner……

 

Key Irish Grand National Betting Trends

14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Finished fourth or better last time out
8/15 – Rated between 130-136
8/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
4/15 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/15 – Ran at Navan last time out
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 23/1
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team