TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 5th May 2018

2018 York Dante Festival Trends & Free Tips (16th Weds - 18th Fri)

 

  • Newmarket: It’s Guineas Weekend at HQ……………
  • ITV Racing: It’s Off To Goodwood Too………………
  • Newmarket: Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas Covered Too……….
  • Trainers Quotes: Gay Going Well for TQ Members…………..

 

Hi, so we waved goodbye to another jumps campaign last weekend but at least we did it in style with 14/1, 13/2 and 4/5 winners!

Yes, we certainly hit the bookies hard last weekend as the John Quinn-trained Safe Voyage (1st 14/1) went in up at Haydock, while Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gutsy hurdler – Ballymoy (1st 13/2) got the job done at Sandown. Top Notch and Altior were also nice winners for us but at odds-on we are not really going to count those!

So, with the jumps gone we get ready for another turf flat season this summer and the action ramps-up several notches this weekend as we’ve the opening two Classics – the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas from Newmarket.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be looking to land the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday for a ninth time and with Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt he’s got a couple of big chances. However, we’ve got a couple to take O’Brien on with – more on that below.

The ITV cameras will be taking in four races at Newmarket on both Saturday and Sunday, plus they are also at Goodwood (Sat) and Hamilton (Sun).

Just like most Saturday’s – bundles to get stuck into with SIX LIVE races, plus don’t forget there is also the 1,000 Guineas from Newmarket on Sunday. We’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quote: Gay Goes Hot On The Flat……………………..

It’s been another top week for the TQ yards and in particular for Newmarket handler – GAY KELLEWAY!

Gay told us a few weeks ago she was ready to have a purple-patch as her horses were showing up nicely at home – she wasn’t wrong!

From last Saturday her form figures read 3-2-2-UP-1-2-2-3-1-1 (up till 3.10 on Thursday) – NOT BAD, HEY?

The highlight was Crystal Deauville winning at Brighton on Wednesday at a tasty 9/1, while Capala Demon was a nice e/w return at 20/1. While Robsdelight is a horse Gay thinks a bit of and this one also got off the mark at the fourth attempt at Redcar on Thursday – another TQ View success with that one too! There is no sign of a let-up either so Gay’s runners are certainly worth looking out for in the coming weeks.

You can see what she told members on some of her runners below……………………

 

So – top stuff yet again and another example just how valuable the TQ info is to members!

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

“Robsdelight – A horse we like a lot and has made a good start to his career with some solid place efforts in much better races. SDS takes over in the saddle and this looks a very winnable race. Trip and ground are fine, while despite not knowing anything about the Varian unraced horse, that looks our biggest danger, I’m hoping that our superior experience will win the day. Should go very close and looks by best chance on the day.” GAY KELLEWAY 1ST 5/4

“Limerick Lord – Ran well at Brighton last week but he does seem to come alive at Southwell and has been in cracking form there lately. He is better than his rating but things need to go his way – hopefully he has a good each-way chance again.” JULIA FEILDEN 1ST 6/1

“Oceanus – Has been running well on the AW but is a better horse on turf. He will appreciate softer ground and is in great form at home. We would hope he has a good e/w chance.” JULIA FEILDEN 1ST 4/1

“Crystal Deauville – Has improved a lot for it’s recent run – first run back for a while. 2lbs lower here too and I think he’ll put in a much better display today. Shame only 6 runners as just 2 places up for grabs but with Shane Kelly riding hoping for a decent run at a nice price.” GAY KELLEWAY 1ST 9/1

“Ubla – Returns to the AW here after running down the field at Windsor last time out on the turf. We are also up to 7f again as probably just got a bit run off his feet last time over 6f. Better runs have come over this trip. Bit more needed as creeping up the handicap after a few AW seconds but SDS an obvious bonus so looks to have fair place claims here today.” GAY KELLEWAY 1ST 9/4

“Capla Demon – A fair sort that has only had two career runs. Will get a handicap mark after today and first run on the turf. Hopeful the ground will suit but you never really know until in race conditions. Lowly-graded race and hard to know about the others with most lightly-raced too so probably not the wisest of betting races. Should go well though and could sneak a place but getting a mark after this will give the horse more options and better chances.” GAY KELLEWAY 2ND 20/1

“Moxy Mares is having his first run back after his winter break and his first start in a handicap, which looks like a competitive race. He is working well at home but should come on from the run today and has never encountered ground quite this soft, so a few unknowns.”

MARK LOUGHNANE 1ST 7/1

“Sputnik Planum – Great win for this 4 year-old last time at Chelmsford on debut for us. Has come out of that race well but is up 8lbs here and back on the turf. More needed in this better race but we get in with just 8-8 and get plenty of weight all-round. Only had 4 runs on the turf (when not with us) so too early to make a call on that front. Ground a bit of an unknown and being US bred it might not suit, but we’ll know more on that after today but should certainly be winning more races and is a nice recruit to the yard.”

MICK APPLEBY 1ST 9/2

“Tigerwolf – Very unlucky not to hold on to the win down in Brighton earlier in the week and just seemed to idle when he hit the front. Returning to the AW today shouldn’t be a problem and if there is a good pace on then we hope he will be bang there in the finish. Our stable apprentice takes the ride and wouldn’t be as experienced as a lot of these riders, but hopefully we will be hitting the cross-bar again.”

MARK LOUGHNANE 1ST 3/1

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

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Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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NEWMARKET: It’s Guineas Weekend at HQ………….

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Spring Lodge Stakes (Formerly The Suffolk Stakes) Cl2 1m1f ITV

13/13 – Had won at least twice before
13/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
11/13 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/13 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
8/13 – Rated between 90 and 95
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Having their first run of the season
5/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/13 – Winning favourites
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: A tough handicap to get us going on 2,000 Guineas day but at least we’ve some decent back trends to look at too. With just one winning favourite in the last 13 runnings then it’s been a good race for the bookies but with 11 of the last 13 winners returning 12/1 or shorter in the betting then it’s actually a race you generally don’t have to look too far down the betting market to find the winner. With 10 of the last 13 successful horses aged 4 or 5 then this is a good age trend, while 11 of the last 13 also carried 9-0 or less in weight. Course winners Spark Plus and Tricorn set a fair standard, while the Hannon-trained Euginio ran well in the Group Three Earl Of Sefton here last time so should find this drop into a handicap much easier – these three are all sure to be popular. However, they’ve also all got their fair share of weight and as pointed out with 11 of the last 13 winners carrying 9-0 or less then I’m going to focus on this. The Roger Varian yard saddled the third in this race 12 months ago and in Sharja Bridge they look to have another decent chance. With 9-0 and being a 4 year-old he ticks a lot of boxes and is yet to finish out of the first three from 4 starts (winning once). The step up in trip will also suit and he’s certainly one for the shortlist – however, with the Varian yard just 1 from 28 (4%) with their older horses at the track this would be a worry. In contrast, the Charlie Appleby yard boast an impressive 30% hit-rate with their 4+ year-olds here so anything they run must be considered – at this stage they’ve got Banksea and Oasis Charm engaged, and with the last-named having just 8-11 to carry then Oasis Charm, who was a nice winner at Chelmsford last time out, could be dangerous if lining-up. However, with a certain Frankie Dettori being booked to ride the John Gosden-trained DOMMERSEN (e/w) this catches the eye. This 4 year-old should be a lot fitter for a recent run at Kempton in the Listed Magnolia Stakes after a 574 day absence. He’s clearly had some issues to be off for so long but before his time off had some solid handicap form around this level and Frankie has also won on the horse in the past too. He’s been given around 5 weeks to get over that first run back and could start making up for lost time now. Of the rest, course and distance winner Third Time Lucky gets in with just 8-8 and could be dangerous at a venue we know suits while the consistent Humbert, for the Hugo Palmer camp, ran a blinder to be a close second in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time and off just 3lbs higher must have every chance of going well again.

2.20 – Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

14/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
13/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/15 – Had run at Newmarket before
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/15 – Aged 5 or younger
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Just one placed horse from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Several of these ran in the race 12 months ago. Alpha Delphini was 8th, Gracious John 10th and Ornate 6th. Last year’s winning Elite Racing Club connections are also represented this year – this time with Judical. 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or younger so Mirza (11), Judical (6), Encore D Or (6) and Alpha Delphini (7) fall down here. The powerful Aidan O’Brien camp just failed to win the race 12 months ago and at this stage have Murillo and Declarationofpeace entered, but we’ll have to see if they actually make the final line-up. Both are rated 107 and also both being 3 year-olds then would also get weight from the older horses – the O’Brien camp boasts a decent 21% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. The James Tate team are going well at the moment and in Kyllang Rock they look to have a decent chance too. This 4 year-old won well at Musselburgh last time – beating Alpha Delphini by ½ a length – and should not be far way. We can expect the horse to have improved for that and despite that win coming in heavy ground he’s a horse that acts on all going. William Buick rides for the first time and this is a further plus – with the only slight niggle being the Tate yard’s very average record at the track (4 from 67, 4%). So, the main selection is going to be HAVANA GREY. Another 3 year-old in the race and so another that gets weight from the older horses. He’s also the highest-rated in the field on 113 so if running to that level on his return is the clear one to beat. He had a cracking 2 year-old campaign, winning Listed and Group Three contests and rounded-off 2017 with a close second in the Group One Prix Morny and then another runner-up finish in the Flying Childers. Those against this Karl Burke-trained grey might point to this being his first run at the track but he’s a horse that has only been out of the top two once from 8 starts. He’s gone well fresh before so the 232 day break is fine, while he also acts on any ground. Of the others, last year’s sixth – ORNATE (e/w) – is now with the Dave Griffiths yard that do so well with their sprinters and has also had wind surgery since we last saw him. He’s a consistent sort that seems to go well here at Newmarket (both courses) and should not be far away in a race he was only beaten 3 lengths in 12 months ago.

2.55 – Dunaden Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
12/15 – Won over 1m4f before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
11/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
8/15 – Rated 112 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Having their first run of the season
7/15 – Had won a Group race before
6/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Aged 5 years-old
4/15 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
4/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Andre Fabre
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the five runners here but still a fascinating little race. We’ve some pretty dire trainer stats with their older horses in this race with all five handlers operating at just 8% or less – having said that, someone has to win it! Khalidi is now with the Clive Cox team after coming from the John Gosden yard However, he was well beatne last time in the Sheema Classic and before that was beaten by another runner here – Master The World – in the Lingfield Winter Derby. On a plus, these two are the only course winners in the field and that must count for something, but it’s also worth noting trainer David Elsworth (Master The World) is currently 0 from 25 with his 4+ year-olds here. Red Verdon was just touched off at Lingfield over 2m last time and back to 1m4f can’t be ruled out either. This Ed Dunlop runner beat Master The World by ½ a length at Kempton in a Listed race last November so is very closely-matched with those already mentioned. Count Octave will be popular after a win at Wolverhampton last time out and, don’t forget, he was also only beaten just over 5 lengths in the St Leger last season. But, for me, he’s a horse that might just want a bit further than this 1m4f trip and is also yet to win on the turf (5 runs) – that would be a concern. So, that leaves us with DEFOE, who I think can hit the back of the net here! Okay, the Roger Varian stable are just 1 from 28 with their older horses at the track but, as pointed out, the other yards are not much better. This improving 4 year-old won on his return in the Group Three John Porter Stakes at Newbury last time and we can expect even more here after that 217 break victory. He’s now won 5 of his last six and looks a horse with more to come. Yes, his only run here at the track was a poor one (11th of 12), but that came in his 2 year-old days and also after a busy spell – it was probably one race too many at that young age. He was also 10th in the St Leger so would have a bit of ground to make up on Count Octave but I expect this 1m4f trip to suit him better and he can turn the tables – he looks the safest call in a race you could make a case for them all!

3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 times before
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
11/16 – Having their first run of the season
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
9/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
9/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (8 wins)
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Had won over a mile before
5/16 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/16 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/16 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/16 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

– Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015 & 2017
– Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: As normal the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp, who will be eyeing a staging ninth win in the race, have another strong hand in this opening Classic of the new turf season – with both Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt his big players. No Ryan Moore riding as he’s on other Ballydoyle duties this weekend so Saxon Warrior will be ridden by Donnach O’Brien, while Gustav Klimt will be handled by Seamie Heffernan. Saxon Warrior heads here 3-from-3 and has been popular in the ante-post betting since his Racing Post Trophy win at Doncaster back in October. He really could be anything and based on his breeding looks certain to be stepped up in trip at some stage this season – he’s around 3/1 for the Epsom Derby next month. He’ll need a good performance here though if he’s to head to the Downs. He got the job done well last time but I just feel he might want further already as he only just got up in that last race over a mile. He had Roaring Lion only a neck back that day and even though he’s a big player the fact he’s never run at Newmarket is another slight question mark for him to overcome. For me, he could still get beaten here but still go well in the Derby next month. O’Brien’s other main runner – Gustav Klimt – on the other hand – is stepping up from 6f and 7f to a mile here so has that question to overcome. Having said that, this Galileo colt is certainly bred to stay further and the way he was going away over 7f suggests he’ll be fine over this mile. I think he’s got the slightly better Guineas profile of the O’Brien runners and despite being officially rated 7lbs lower than Saxon Warrior I’ll take him from the Ballydoyle runners. However, it might not be plain-sailing for the main Irish raiders. Expert Eye burst onto the scene last season with eye-catching wins at Newbury and Goodwood, but he’s rather lost his way since and was turned over by James Garfield, who is still double his price, in the Greenham Stakes last time out – the step up to a mile might help but he’s got a bit to prove for me. Frankie sticks with James Garfield and of the bigger-priced runners he could go well but the step up to a mile is not really sure to suit so a place might be the best he can hope for. Off a mark of 118 then Roaring Lion is rated to go well but this John Gosden runner was firmly put in his place last time here in the Craven Stakes by MASAR, so this horse gets the nod. This Godolphin runner won by an impressive 9 ¼ lengths that day and with proven course form there could be more to come. He quickened into the dip very well last time and if running to that level again must surely go close. Yes, his profile is a bit hit-and-miss, and he’s yet to record back-to-back wins but he looked a different horse last time on his first try at the track and hopefully that win will give him more confidence. He’ll be looking to become the first Craven winner since Haafhd to go onto land the Guineas. The other interesting runner away from the O’Brien hot-pots is the Mark Johnston-trained – ELARQAM. This 3 year-old is 2-from-2 after easy wins at York and here at Newmarket and there should be more to come. We know he acts on the track after winning the Group Three Somerville Stakes here last September and with another winter on his back will be a lot stronger this season. The step up from 7f to a mile looks within range for this Frankel colt, who will be looking to follow-up his dad’s win in the race in 2011 and also give trainer Mark Johnston his second win in the contest after landing the prize back in 1994 with Mister Baileys. I’d rather play both the two proven course winners in Masar and Elarqam, who should both be similar prices, against the field.

 

ITV RACING: Two LIVE Races at Goodwood……………

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Matchbook VIP/British EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/7 – Came between stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/7 – Had won between 2-3 times before
5/7 – Aged 4 years-old
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
2/7 – Winners from stall 2
2/7 – Had raced at Goodwood before
2/7 – Raced at Ascot last time out
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: Based on the official ratings then Mori, Winingit, Architecture and Titi Makfi look the main players here, but there are also some interesting potential improvers in the race. The Stoute-trained Mori, off a mark of 106, looks the one to beat but is on a bit of a recovery mission. She has lost her last three – twice as a beaten favourite – but should find this Listed grade a bit easier. She’s also had a wind op since we last saw her and if that’s had the desired impact then her close second in the Group Two Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last June would make her hard to beat. She’s also a course winner here at Goodwood at this level but would probably want the ground to continue to dry out – which it should – as all her best runs have been on a quicker surface. The Mark Johnston yard won this is 2014 and their Titi Makfi can make a bold bid too. She will be better for a recent run at Newbury when getting tired in the closing stages and has won at this level in the past. She does, however, have to give 3lbs away to the others and that might be a tall order. It might pay to know the Ian Williams yard actually have a 24% record with their older horses here so Jet Streaming can’t be totally ruled out despite having a bit to find on the official ratings. Architecture has the form to go well too but I’d be concerned she’s not won in 9 races now! Winingit has also gone ok at this level and has some fair form in Ireland but even though I think Mori is the one to beat, it might be worth taking a chance with the two Haggas runners – MAM ‘SELLE (e/w) and WHAT A HOME (e/w). Both have a fair bit to find on what we’ve seen so far but they are lightly-raced and should have more to come. Mam’Selle might have liked a bit more cut but her handicap form of last season was not too bad and her recent Listed flop in France came on very soft ground so can be overlooked. Their other runner – What A Home – has won her last two in the style of an improving filly and the fact connections feel she’s up to this higher grade commands respect. Gerald Mosse has been booked to ride and with only 4 career runs should have more scope than most in the race. She’s around 10-15lbs to find with the main runners but the Haggas camp must feel she’s not far off that to warrant giving it a crack.

2.40 – Commission Free Racing At Matchbook Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried between 8-7 and 8-12
5/5 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
5/5 – Had won between 2-4 races before
4/5 – Winners that came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/5 – Ran at Kempton last time out
2/5 – Aged 4 years-old
2/5 – Finished second last time out
2/5 – Ridden by Shane Kelly
2/5 – Winners from stall 5
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Only the five previous runnings here but with ALL of those winners carrying between 8-7 and 8-12 then this weight bracket could be worth focusing on again. If that’s the case then we are left with just FOUR! The Warrior, Taurean Star, Mister Music & Masham Star. With 4 of the last 5 winners coming from stalls 5-9 then only the Amanda Perrett-trained THE WARRIOR (e/w), who was third in this race 12 months ago, fits the bill. With just 8-7 and from stall 8 then this 6 year-old has those two key trends on his side and he wasn’t disgraced last time when 9th of 19 at HQ after a few months off. He’s 2lbs lower in the handicap here and with form over further then we know he also stays further than this 7f trip – which I expect connections to make full use of – I expect him to go well. Recent winners, Love Dreams, Right Action and Mister Music command respect but the Robert Eddery-trained DONNCHA (e/w) is the other one I like. He only just falls outside the main weight trend by a pound but has a good draw in 6. He was an improved fourth (or 14) last time out at HQ on just his second run back and is no stranger to these big-field handicaps. He’s also won of just a few proven course and distance winners in the field while off a mark of 92 is creeping down the ratings to what looks a very attractive mark. Yes, he’s a hard horse to win with and is now 19 runs without a win but, most importantly, he’s back down to his last winning mark and that should see him pick up a race of this nature again at some point – hopefully it’s today!


NEWMARKET: 1,000 Guineas Tips and Trends

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)


3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
11/16 – Won their previous race
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
5/16 – Previous Group One winners
5/16 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/16 – Won by a US bred horse
4/16 – Won by the favourite
3/16 – French-trained winners
3/16 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien doesn’t quite have as good a record in the 1,000 Guineas as he does in the 2,000 – however, four wins in the fillies’ Classic is still not a bad effort! The last two of those have come in the last two runnings too and in Happily he’s got this year’s favourite. However, we did last see this Group One-winning filly well beaten at the Breeders’ Cup in the Fillies’ Juvenile but the really firm surface and not getting the clearest of runs were fair excuses. Prior to that she’d landed two Group One’s – the Grand Criterium in France and the Moyglare Stud in Ireland – so it’s certainly out of the top drawer. She’s rated 113, which is the joint second highest in the field so as long as you can forgive that last run, where she did have excuses, then she’s the one to beat. With five career runs then she’s also one of the more experienced in the field but on the flip-side that also opens her up to a potential improver. The Ballydoyle camp took this 12 months ago with one of their second/third strings and based on that their other runners can’t be overlooked – don’t forget they also won the Derby with a 40/1 shot last year so these 3 year-olds can improve rapidly. With that in-mind I CAN FLY would not be the worst shout in the world. This filly has only had three career runs but has shown promise in a couple of Group Three’s and has also had the benefit of a recent run. The step up to a mile for the first time will suit and she’s also tasted the Newmarket track after running third here last October in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She’s been popular in the betting in the build-up which suggests she’s improved over the winter and also since that last run and could be the value against the obvious O’Brien hot-pot – Happily. Laurens is the other joint second top-rated runner at 113 and she’s done little wrong during her short career so far. We last saw her winning the Fillies’ Mile here over course and distance so that track experience is a big plus. She’s a game filly that just about sees out this mile well so has to be one for the shortlist too – she’s a big price for what she’s achieved and you feel if she was trained by O’Brien or one of the Godolphin lot then she’d be a lot shorter – she’s hard to ignore. Altyn Orda and Anna Nerium are lively outsiders that have decent course form here, while with the Mick Channon yard going great guns at the moment their Dan’s Dream, who won the Fred Darling last time out, can go well if taking to the step up to 1m. With a rating of 114 (the highest in the field) the Godolphin’s Wild Illusion is hard to ignore too. She was an easy winner of a Group One in France last time and is yet to finish out of the first two. She’s only had three runs so we can expect more and the Charlie Appleby camp have started the new season in tremendous form. However, the Appleby team also run SOLILOQUY and of their pair this well-bred Dubawi filly gets the call. She was last seen running away with the Nell Gywn over 7f here and if improving a tad on that would be a big player. She’s won over a mile in the past too so the trip is fine and will be looking to become the first Nell Gwyn winner to follow-up since Speciosa in 2006. I’m happy to side with this Godolphin runner, plus the Aidan O’Brien second string against the favourite – Happily.

 

 

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team