TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 7th April 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 7th April 2018

 

  • Kempton: Three LIVE Races On The AW…….
  • Kelso: A Big Day At The Scottish Track………
  • Grand National: The Aintree Build-Up Starts…………….
  • Trainers Quotes: Julia Lords It Up…………

 

Hi, well the weather has certainly been back to bite us last week with very few (if any) turf meetings surviving the heavy rain we had over the Easter period.

Yes, the All Weather tracks came to the rescue, as they often do – but let’s be honest it’s not the same! On a plus, it looks like we are in for a few hotter and drier days around the country so this should help get things back to normal and just in time as we’ve got the small matter of the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting next week.

A lot to look forward to in the coming week and our new blog page is already jam-paced with Aintree content – we’ve got all the key trends for all the main races each day, plus these will be padded out with ‘free tips’ nearer the time. Take a look here.

Therefore, like most weekends before a big meeting, the quality of racing takes a bit of a nosedive. No disrespect to Kelso and Kempton, who stage this Saturday’s LIVE ITV action, but I think we can all agree it’s not one of the classic weekends of racing.

Having said that, we’ve still seven LIVE races spread across the two venues and we’re hopeful we can find a few winners to bolster the betting banks ahead of next week.

So, bundles to get stuck into and we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes………Julia LORDS It Up………….

It’s been a quiet week all round with much of the turf action called off. The AW tracks have kept the racing show on the road though and but it will be nice to get the flat turf season going properly, while we can also look forward to the end of the jumping season with Aintree next week, the Scottish National the week after and then a top Sandown card on the 28th.

It wasn’t all doom-and-gloom though as our AW yards continued to churn out the top advice with the likes of Simon Dow, Gay Kelleway and Dave Griffiths sending out nice winning quotes. However, it was Julia Fielden that stole the show with her 7/1 winner at Southwell on Wednesday – LIMERICK LORD.

This 6 year-old clearly loves the fibresand and made all under top amateur – Ross Birkett – to win going away by an easy 3 ¾ lengths. We’ll be looking out for him in the coming weeks as he bids to land the three-timer and the way he won in the week then he looks to have every chance of landing the three-timer!

Top stuff and another example just how valuable the TQ info is to members!

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

Limerick Lord – Has again got a bad draw (6) for him as he prefers a small field but he will take his chance here in the hope that he is in the money again. Won well at the track last time and only 3lbs higher. Ross takes over from Shelley and knows the horse as well as anyone so he’s a big advantage in these amateur races.” 1st 7/1 Julia Feilden

Le Torrent – Won on his return following injury last time in a weak race at Kempton, this needs a bit more but he seems in great shape and with few opportunities to suit in the immediate future he should take his place. Likely to be involved if in the same form as last time.” 1st 10/3 Simon Dow

Tavener – A little disappointing last time but had a bit of time off so has come on for that. He’s very well and is a proven course winner here. Draw 4 is fine as likes to get on with things. Drop back to 6f is a plus and Andrea rides this one for us today too, so in a tight little race hoping for much better today and a good run.” 1st 3/1 Dave Griffiths

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..


 

Kempton: Three LIVE ITV Races A Sunbury-On-Thames……

 

2.05 – Betfred Mobile Handicap (Class 2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

One previous running
A Momentofmadness (7/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
1 winning favourite
Last year’s winner came from stall 1
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a +£18 level stakes profit riding older horses at the track
Trainer Derek Shaw is just 7 from 94 (7%) with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: Tomily and Dynamo Walt are the two recent winners in the field that command respect. However, Dynamo Walt is up another 3lbs for his head win last time out, plus that came in a much lower grade. Tomily, on the other-hand, has won his last two in this grade and is up just 2lbs from the most recent of his two wins in March. Jockey Hollie Doyle gets on well with this Hannon-trained runner and the drop back to 5f (won over 6f last time) is fine. He’s clearly in rude health and should not be far away again. The Roger Varian yard boasts an impressive 19% strike-rate with their older horses here so his Double Up will be hoping to maintain those stats. This 7 year-old should be a lot better for a recent return run at Lingfield but off a mark of 104 does still look to be a tad high in the weights for me – his last win was off 100. The Robert Cowell yard, who do well with their sprinters, are well-represented here too and Jim Crowley is an eye-catching jockey booking on their Jumira Bridge. This 4 year-old will be making his stable debut after coming from the Roger Varian camp and based on last year’s form should be picking up a decent sprint handicap at some point this season. But the call here is for last year’s winner – A MOMENTOFMADNESS – to repeat the dose. This Charles Hills-trained 5 year-old won this race 12 months go by ½ a length and he’s one of just two (Dynamo Walt) proven course and distance winners in the field. Yes, he’s 9lbs higher than last year but – simply put – he’s a much better horse now. He ran with credit in some top sprint handicaps last season and rarely runs a bad race – from his last 10 races he’s only been beaten more than 2 ¼ lengths once! A recent ¾ length third behind Tomily should have him spot-on for this, while he’s also got a 5lb turnaround in the weights with that horse this time. William Buick in the saddle is the final icing on the cake.

2.40 – Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) ITV4

Two previous runnings
Both winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
1 winning favourite
Both winners carried 8-10 or more in weight
Both winners aged 4 or 5 years-old
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 24% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Marco Botti has a 20% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Derek Shaw is just 7 from 94 (7%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is 0 from 34 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a +£18 level stakes profit riding older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The return to 6f will suit Blue De Vega after getting run off his feet last time over 5f at Musselburgh. He’s gone well at Kempton in the past too and hails from the Robert Cowell yard that do so well with their sprinters. Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan team-up with the consistent Boundsy – this 4 year-old has finished in the top three in all of his last 7 races! He looks sure to be in the mix but I’d be a tad worried that the Fahey team are currently 0-from-34 with their 4+ years-olds at the track! The 10 year-old Tropics is showing no signs of letting-up in his latter years after an easy 3 length win at Chelmsford last time and he’s another to consider. He’s up 7lbs for that last win though and also back up in grade – still a player and being rated as high as 116 in the past many may still feel off 102 he’s well-in. Mazzini is another to note and is one of the few proven course and distance winners in the field. From the James Fanshawe yard that have a decent 24% record with their older horses at the track then this 5 year-old has plenty going for him. Jockey George Wood gets on well with the horse and generally the yards sprinters tend to get better with age so a big season ahead could be on the cards for MAZZINI. My only slight concern is the 129 day break, as in the past this horse is yet to win off a lay-off and often needed a few outings to get going – we’ll see! So, the one I think stands out for the main selection is the Marco Botti-trained RAVEN’S LADY. This 4 year-old blew away the cobwebs last time out at Wolverhampton back in January after 4 months off but is a horse that does seem to go well fresh so the 3 month break again is fine. A handicap rating of 90 catches the eye and she gets in here with just 8-7 to carry. Top jockey Andrea Atzeni, who does well riding 4+ year-olds at the track, while this horse’s form at Kempton reads an impressive 2-1-2-3.

3.15 – Betfred ‘Home Of Goals’ Snowdrop Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

13/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/14 – Won by a 4 year-old
12/14 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
11/14 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
11/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/14 – Rated between 90-102
9/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Unplaced in their last race
6/14 – Rated 96 or lower
5/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Had run at Kempton before
3/14 – Won by trainer Marco Botti
2/14 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/14 – Won last time out
4 of the last 10 favourites have won
Marco Botti won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 33% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Jeremy Noseda has a 27% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 24% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Loughnane has a 23% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 21% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 28 (4%) with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The Charlie Fellowes-trained Carolinae ran a blinder at Lingfield last week to be second in a decent Conditions race and should make another bold bid. She’s 1-from-1 here at Kempton and the step up to a mile (from 7f) is fine but into Listed company here so more is needed again. Shenanigans, Paco’s Angel, Inshiraah and Lucymai are others to note, but really based on the ratings in this Listed race the two that stand out are Wilamina and SMART CALL. The first-named – Wilamina – is rated 103 and is a proven winner at this level after landing the Nottinghamshire Oaks last May. That came over 1m2f so we know she stays a bit further than this mile trip and we also know she’s gone well fresh in the past. With that in mind, the 176 day break isn’t too much of a worry and with just 10 career runs should have more to come. This will, however, be her first trip to Kempton so that’s a slight unknown and also her first try on any kind of AW surface. Having said that, she does act on quicker ground on the turf so there is no obvious reason why she won’t be suited to it. Oisin Murphy rides. But rated 110, and 7lbs clear of Wilamina, is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained SMART CALL. This 6 year-old sets a decent standard for the others to aim at and will find this drop into Listed company much easier – after all, she was contesting Group One and Two races last season! Yes, she’s not won since January 2016 but, as mentioned, she was highly-tried last term and will find this company much easier. The Stoute yard have a cracking 33% record with their older horses at the track so that’s another positive tick for this 6 year-old. She’s another that is having her AW debut here but there is no reason why she won’t act on it and having form from trips ranging from 1m to 1m4f then jockey Jim Crowley should have plenty of options in the saddle. Of the rest, the Jeremy Noseda-trained La Figlia is well-regarded and was last seen running an excellent fourth in the Listed Rosemary Stakes at HQ last September. She’ll be a lot stronger with another winter on her back and looks a serious threat to the selection. While the French raided these shores on Good Friday at Lingfield so their Hunaina is another to note. She’s got decent form in her home county and we can rest assured connections are not just coming over for a day trip!

 

Kelso: A Big Day North Of The Border……..

 

1.50 Sue And Harvey Smith Chase (A Novices’ Chase Limited Handicap) Cl3 (5 YO+ 0-135) 2m 7 ½ f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 21% (12 from 56) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin has a 20% (7 from 35) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 4 from 45 (9%) record with her chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Some interesting trainer stats here with no previous runnings of this race to go on and only the four runners heading to post in what looks a tight contest with all of the quartet having some sort of say. The Sue Smith yard doesn’t have the best of record at the track – she’s only 4 from 45 with her chasers here – so her runner Just Georgie, who was a fair third at Haydock last time out, has this trend to overcome. On a plus for the horse, the longer trip will suit after winning over 3m two starts ago and he’ll be fine in the ground – he is, however, 8lbs higher than when last winning so needs to find a bit more. Course winner Acdc was a short-head second at Ayr last time and has been put up 2lbs for that. This 8 year-old is a consistent sort that has winning form in the ground and over this sort of trip. Being the only course winner in the field too then he commands respect. However, with the Donald McCain yard in much better for now their HILLS OF DUBAI looks worthy of an interest and gets the call. This 9 year-old is very lightly-raced for a horse his age (just 8 runs) but I think the key to him could be the step up from 2m4f to 3m. Yes, he’s been running well over the shorter trip – winning two of his last three – but is a winning pointer at 3m and the way he stayed on last time when second at Haydock suggests he’s worth a crack over further. Brian Hughes has been booked to ride again and that’s a bonus, plus the heavier ground this time will be fine. He’s a horse that likes to get on with things from the front, so in this ground he could get the others at it, and out of their comfort zones, from an early stage. The McCain yard also have a decent 21% record with their chasers here. Of the rest, Teddy Tee makes up the four and might be worth a small saver too. This Nicky Richards-trained 9 year-old is yet to win over fences from 4 starts but has been second three times and third once. He stays further than this trip and acts in the ground – both or which will be big assets in these conditions.

 

2.25 – totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m ITV4

6/7 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
6/7 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/7 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
5/7 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
3/7 – Aged 7 years-old
3/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 54% record (7 from 13) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald Whillans is only 2 from 27 (7%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin is only 8 from 95 (8%) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is 0 from 17 with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Susan Corbett is just 1 from 28 with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer James Moffatt is just 1 from 32 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: A decent-looking race but the one that stands out here is the Keith Dalgleish-trained pair of Mirsaale and TAXMEIFYOUCAN. The yard has a very impressive 54% record with their hurdles here with 7 winners from their last 13 sent to post. Mirsaale was last seen on the flat at Musselburgh last Saturday but before that ran a close third at Carlisle over hurdles. He’s also 2-from-2 here at Kelso so clearly loves the track and despite being 4lbs higher than his last win here looks sure to go well. The other Dalgleish runner Taxmeifyoucanwas a good 2 ¼ length winner over course and distance back in February and with just three outings over hurdles looks one of the lesser exposed in the field. Brian Hughes continues in the saddle and with just 10-4 to carry gets in here with a decent-looking mark on handicap debut. That win also came on heavy ground so conditions will also be fine. Of the rest, the Donald McCain yard have a 21% record at the track with their hurdlers so Ubaltique is of interest too. The first-named is another proven course winner that will love the ground and with the stable’s horses in much better form now then he can make his presence felt too, but having won twice at Haydock this season does have a bit to find off this 4lb higher mark based on his last two efforts (3rd and 4th). Card Game has finished in the top three in 10 of her 17 starts over hurdles but is returning from a 294 break so fitness would have to be taken on trust. Trainers Rose Dobbin (8%) and Donald Whillans (7%) don’t have the best of records with their hurdlers here so their runners – Monfass and Keyboard Gangster – are others I’m prepared to overlook. NIETZSCHE has been running in some hot races and so should find this company a lot more to his liking and based on his close third in the Fred Winter last season off 130 then his mark of 129 gives him a massive chance if finding a bit of form. He returns from a small break and should be fresh and ready to run a much better race for the Brian Ellison yard – he’s respected too and rates the main danger to the unexposed Taxmeifyoucan.

 

3.00 – Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase Cl2 3m2f ITV4

One previous running
Yala Enki (9/4) won the race in 2017
Trainer Harriet Graham has a (21%) with her chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 21% (12 from 56) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 4 from 45 (9%) record with her chasers at the track

TQ VERDICT: YALA ENKI landed this race 12 months ago and really there is every reason to think he can go well again. He’ll love the heavy ground and the trip and wasn’t disgraced when 6th (of 18) in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time. Before that he slammed the Grand National favourite – Blaklion – by 54 lengths at Haydock and is only 6lbs higher here. Yes, he’s also 8lbs higher than when winning this last year but he did it by 7 lengths that day and should have more to offer. With 4 weeks to get over that Cheltenham race then he should be spot-on for this and when winning 12 months ago he had a similar preparation after running just 19 days prior to that – I think he’s worth sticking with in a race we know he’s gone well in before. Baywing beat Wild West Wind by 4 lengths at Newcastle in the Eider Chase last time out so we know he stays – that was over 4m! The ground is fine too and connections have given him 42 days to get over that run. He is, however, 9lbs higher this time. The Sue Smith yard are just 4 from 45 with their chasers here so her entries Smooth Stepper & Blakemount have this stat against them, but the consistent Lake View Lad is another to consider. This 8 year-old has raced 8 times over fences and only been out of the first three once. He won’t mind the heavy ground but the step up to 3m2f is a bit of an unknown, while off a mark of 139 he looks to be a horse that gets collared by the handicapper for not winning that often but being consistent – he’d need a career-best off this mark. Of the rest, Wild West Wind would have the form to go well but I can’t be backing a horse that has fallen, refused and unseated in his last three starts. Course winner and the consistent Seldom Inn has the services of Brian Hughes the horse rarely runs a bad race here so should in the mix too but does have a bit to prove over this 3m2f trip though. Harry The Viking and Samstown are the other past course winners in the field but at 11 and 13 are certainly not getting any younger and might just get found out by some fresher legs.

 

3.35 – Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m2f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Trainer Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
3 of the last 4 winners returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
The last 2 winners were aged 7 years-old
1 winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
The last three winners were placed at Haydock last time out
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 56% (5 from 9)record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 22% record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 22% record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alistair Whillans is just 3 from 51 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: DONNA’S DIAMOND wasn’t disgraced in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time even though he finished 11th of 15. He ran well for much of the way and only really got tired in the final few furlongs to eventually be 18 lengths off the winner – Penhill. Before that he beat the useful Agrapart by 2 ¼ lengths at Haydock in heavy ground and that form would make him a big player here. Off a mark of 146 he sets the standard but that comes with a price – he’s got 11-12 to carry and that won’t be easy in these conditions, but Callum Bewley’s 3lbs claim helps a lot on that score and he’s a proven course winner here too. He’s a fast-improving stayer that will find this race a lot easier than last time and is certainly one for the shortlist. The Donald McCain yard is going well at the moment so their Lastbutnotleast, who often likes to make the running, can’t be discounted but does have stamina to prove over this 3m2f trip. Kris Spin and Eminent Poet were both good winners last time and are also past winners over this distance so can’t be ruled out, while Letmego unseated last time when still in with a shout but had won his three before that. The Nicky Richards stable are also going well with a 30% strike-rate at the time of writing – they look to have a strong hand too with Western Rules and TAKINGRISKS (e/w) – with the last-named looking the value. Western Rules was a short head winner at Ayr last time so heads here in tip-top form but a 5lb rise for that makes life harder. He also had a 7lb claiming jockey on last time that he doesn’t get here so in a much harder race does seem to have a bit of improvement to find. Takingrisks, however, returns to hurdles after a spell chasing and from what he’s achieved over the bigger obstacles looks to be on a decent mark back over hurdles. He won by 2 ¼ lengths over fences last time off a mark of 127 so his hurdles rating of 126 gives him every chance. Heavy ground and the trip are fine, plus he’s a course winner at Kelso too. Ryan Day, who has won on him twice before, continues in the saddle.

 

 

THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team