TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 7th July 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 7th July 2018

 

  • SANDOWN – It’s Eclipse Day in Esher………….
  • HAYDOCK: A Top Card With Three LIVE Races……
  • TQ: Vaughan Does It ‘Again’- This Time At 22/1……..

 

Hi,

So that’s June over and whether you are a football fan or not can you believe England are in the World Cup Quarter-finals? Yes, after that dramatic penalty shootout in midweek their reward is Sweden later on today (3pm) – if they win they can book their place in the semi-finals so that is why all the main Saturday LIVE ITV races are at much earlier times than this time of the year.

A bumper day of sport ahead then but before the countries streets turn into ghost towns we’ve some decent racing action to enjoy.

Yes, it’s Coral-Eclipse Day at Sandown and it’s set to be a cracker with the Epsom Derby winner – Masar – renewing rivalry with the third – Roaring Lion – and fourth – Saxon Warrior.

A fascinating clash between these trio, while the likes of Happily and Forest Ranger are certainly no back numbers either! Don’t forget, the Eclipse trip is over 1m2f and that’s two furlongs shorter than at Epsom so cases can be made for all three to win.

We’ve also LIVE racing at Haydock with the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup the main races there.

All-in-all, a fascinating day to look forward to with SEVEN LIVE races to enjoy from Sandown and Haydock – as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend and enjoy the Sun!!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes:

Vaughan On Target ‘AGAIN’ – This Time With a 22/1 Shot!!

He’s only gone and done it again!! Trainer Tim Vaughan stole the headlines last week with a top 16/1 winner but he’s done it again this week – this time with a 22/1 success. Tim’s summer jumpers are quite limited at this time of the year but the ones he is sending out seem to be ready to rumble.

Tim’s not the only one chipping in with winners as you can see below the likes of Gay Kelleway, Gary Moore, Mick Appleby, Julia Feilden and Dave Griffiths have all had success this week too.

Top stuff!

 

Here’s what Tim told members……………………………..

“Lord Murphy has done most of his racing on the all-weather so is quite unexposed on the turf and his last turf run was over a longer distance. The mile should suit today and if he handles this faster going then with the drop in grade we hope that he would at least have an e/w chance.”

2nd 12/1 Mark Loughnane

“Johni Boxit – This is his level – slight drop in trip will help and we are also trying the first-time visor on today to see if that helps as has been taking a bit of a hold in his races. 0-from-8, but capable in this sort of race but probably not one to totally trust as does sometimes have his own ideas about the game. Probably 1 1/2 stars!”

1st 9/2 Gay Kelleway

“Terri Rules – Has been running consistently well this year – she is tough and takes her racing well. She should hopefully reverse the placing with John Butler’s horse – who beat us last time – and if she has luck in-running she should be thereabouts.”

1st 5/2 Julia Feilden

“Tough race. Age of Wisdom is fairly well weighted and well drawn (4) but can only advise small e/w chance today.”

1st 33/1 Gary Moore

“Boethius – Former winning pointer. Struggled a bit on return run at the end of May but we feel he’s better than that. Has improved for that outing though and the slightly longer trip should help. Also down 4lbs for that last run will help. Another of ours today that we are hopeful of a step forward but looks another race with many chances so be delighted with an improved run. Brush hurdles will suit so small each-way.”

1st 22/1 Tim Vaughan

“Archimedes – Wasn’t beaten far last time out at Ayr and we get in here 3lbs lower. Jim Crowley booked to ride and we are a proven course winner at the track. Doesn’t look the best of races so every chance of being in the mix. Each-way.”

1st 4/1 Dave Griffiths

“The Great Wall – Delighted with his run last time at York when a very close second. Took a bit of a hold that day so the drop back to 6f will suit and a 4lb rise looks just about fair for that as we are also in a lower grade. Has come on for that last run and despite having the Godolphin horse to beat think we head here with every chance and hopefully the long trip up can pay off.”

1st 6/4 Mick Appleby

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

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Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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Eclipse Day At Sandown………………..

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.20Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y ITV

16/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Had won at Sandown before
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
7 of the last 12 winners were Irish bred
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: The 110-rated Muthmir sets the standard in terms of the official marks and despite now being 8 years-old has shown this season that he retains plenty of class after winning the Listed Achilles Stakes last time out at Haydock. However, although he’s the top-rated in the field his last five forays into Group class have seen him beaten each time. On a plus, the William Haggas team boast an impressive 27% record with their older horses at the track so he can’t be totally ruled out. The 3 year-old fillies – Different League and Tricky Spirit get handy weight and sex allowances here so that will help their chance. Of the two the O’Brien runner – Different League – would be interesting getting 8lbs from the older horses in the race and wasn’t disgraced in the Group One King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out (5th) – this drop in grade will be much more to her liking. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a decent 30% record at the course with his 4+ year-olds so his Dream Of Dreams enters the mix. He was a fair fifth at this level last time at Newcastle but can be expected to have come on for that run after a 72 day break. Sound Of Silence, Mr Lupton and JUDICIAL have chances too – especially the last-named. This 6 year-old was an easy winner of a Conditions race at Beverley last time and despite running fourth to Muthmir at Haydock the time before didn’t get the best of runs on several occasions there. With a bit more luck in-running I expect him to finish much closer here and draw 4 looks a plus. The other one I like though is the only course and distance winner in the field – HADDAF. This 3 year-old gets 5lbs from the older horses and was a good winner here last time out in a Listed race. More is needed up in grade but he did it nicely that day and jockey James Doyle continues in the saddle. Draw 3 looks a plus too with 10 of the last 12 winners hailing from stalls 1-4.

12.55 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV

15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Carried 8-8 or more
14/16 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
14/16 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
12/16 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
10/16 – Had run at Sandown before
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/16 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (4) last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
9 of the last 12 winners came from stall 8 or lower
Secret Act (16/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: With 15 of the last 16 winners of this race aged 6 or younger then only the 7 year-old Master Carpenter falls down here. It’s the 4 year-olds that have by-far the best record though – winning 10 of the last 16 runnings. South Seas, Escobar, Original Choice, Daira Prince, Pouvoir Magique, Via Serendipity, Masham Star and Isomer are the eight 4 year-olds in the line-up. We’ve also seen 9 of the last 12 winners hails from stalls 8 or lower so of the 16 runners this also cuts the field in half. Trainer Roger Varian has a decent 23% record with his older horses at the track so his 4 year-old Daira Prince, who has won his last two in decent fashion, is one for the shortlist. Draw 10 might be a negative though and he’s up 4lbs from that last effort. Via Serendipity, Manson and Chiefofchiefs are proven course and distance winners in the race to note, while the consistent 3 year-old Tigre Du Terre will be popular with punters with a string of recent placed efforts under his belt. Secret Act won the 2016 running of this race so is another to consider but the William Knight camp are just 1 from 24 with their older horses at the track. The 105-rated South Seas looks well-handicapped based on old form but that came a few seasons ago now so has a bit to prove. So, the call here is ESCOBAR to bounce back from his recent run at Ascot. He was actually only beaten just over 6 lengths that day in the Royal Hunt Cup but was slightly on his toes before the race so did have an excuse. The smaller field and lesser occasion will help and the time before he’d won well at Haydock over this trip – a reproduction of that effort would see him go well. CHIEFOFCHIEFS is the other one to have an interest in. He won well here in May and ran well again over CD here last time out – beaten just under 2 lengths to Via Serendipty. This Charlie Fellowes runner gets a handy 4lbs weight pull for that and should be staying on at the death when others have cried enough.

1.30 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y ITV

15/15 – Had at least 1 previous run already that season
14/15 – Had never run at Sandown before
13/15 – Had won over 7f or further before
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/15 – Favourites that finished in the top three
4/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 12 winners came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: It’s interesting that trainer Aidan O’Brien brings over two for this race – Broadway and Darkness Falls – both are respected but it’s worth pointing out the O’Brien yard are currently 0-from-12 with their runners here at Sandown. It’s a race the Sir Michael Stoute yard like to win – landing the pot four times in the last 15 runnings so their DESERT DIAMOND can’t be overlooked. She was an excellent fourth in the 23 runner Sandringham Stakes last time out at Royal Ascot so looks well worth a crack at this Listed level. She’s got a bit to find on the ratings with some of the others but does stay further than this trip and that will be an asset in the closing stages up the stiff Sandown hill. PREENING won well over course and distance last time out though and is another that certainly looks up to the rise in grade. She won easily by just over 3 lengths that day and with just four career runs should have more to come. Awesometank won well at Chelmsford last time too and looks a progressive sort for the William Haggas camp. He made all the running that day so can be expected to be up with the pace again here and should make a bold bid, but may also just set the race up for something else that is proven to stay a bit further. Di Fede and Gavota are others to consider, while the Roger Varian runner – Narella – is the highest-rated in the field at 105. She’s German Group Three winner that has only had three career runs so could easily outclass this lot. She’s sure to be popular in the better coming from a yard that have a decent 28% record at the track with their older horses but doesn’t look much value at this stage with her international form being hard to translate to the UK tracks.

2.10 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

Eclipse Stakes Past Winners

2017 – Ulysses (8/1)
2016 – Hawkbill (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav)
2014 – Mukhadram (14/1)
2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav)
2012 – Nathaniel (7/2)
2011 – So You Think (4/11 fav)
2010 – Twice Over (13/8 fav)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav)
2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2)
2007 – Notnowcato (7/1)
2006 –David Junior (9/4)
2005 –Oratorio (12/1)
2004 –Refuse To Bend (15/2)
2003 –Falbrav (8/1)
2002 – Hawk Wing (8/15 fav)

Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Won by a previous Group One winner
13/16 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
12/16 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
12/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
11/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/16 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4 of the last 11 winners won last time out
2 of the last 9 Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 5/1

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995 & 2016
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 6 runnings

 

TQ VERDICT: It’s was on! Yes, the three-way showdown between the Epsom Derby winner, third and fourth was set up nicely but in some late drama on Friday night the Derby winner- Masar – will now MISS THE RACE after banging his leg. However, we’ve still the Derby third Roaring Lion and fourth Saxon Warrior, who has since also flopped in the Irish Derby, in the race in a fascinating match-up. The drop back in trip – from 1m4f to 1m2f – will be a huge factor here though and many feel it will suit those in-behind Masar much better. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion didn’t seem to quite get home over 1m4f in the Derby and that was evident again for Saxon Warrior last weekend in the Irish Derby. This 1m2f trip could, therefore, be perfect for them both and Roaring Lion has already backed that up with a 4 length romp in the Dante Stakes over this trip earlier this season. However, with Saxon Warrior looking to have had a hard race last Saturday at the Curragh I still think he’s vulnerable here. Hawkbill is the 2016 winner of this race so can’t be underestimated, even if he has run a bit below-par this season. He did, however, win the Group One Sheema Classic over 1m4f back in March and that form would see him go well at a big price. O’Brien also runs Cliffs Of Moher, but last year’s Derby runner-up has fallen short at the highest level, but their HAPPILY would certainly be an alternative and spoil the party for the main two in the betting. She gets a handy 13lbs from the older horses in the race and 3lbs from the Derby boys. Okay, she’s yet to win over this trip but was a very close fourth over it last time in France and was also a two-time Group One winner over in France last season. Her third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas has since been franked with the winner dotting-up in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot so she can be expected to go well too. Forest Ranger is the final one to note. He’s done very well since being gelded over the winter (2-from-2) and will head here fresher than most after last being seen winning the Huxley Stakes at Chester. This leap into Group One company makes life harder but he’s a horse going the right way and clearly enjoy having a tiny bit less weight to carry in his undercarriage!

Haydock: A Top Card With Three LIVE Races………

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.35 – bet365 Handicap Cl3 1m2f95y ITV

1 previous running
John Gosden trained the winner in 2017
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 3 from 45 with his 3 year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race so not much to go on. The Andrew Balding camp are only 3 from 45 with their 3 year-olds at the track so their two runners – Perfect Mission and Diocletian – are overlooked. Sexy Beast is the only proven course and distance winner in the field so enters calculations while the powerful Mark Johnston camp are mob-handed with three runners – Making Miracles, Austrian School and Lynwood Gold – of the trio Austrian School gets the nod with the step up in trip on better ground a plus. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin also have a live chance with Ghostwatch, who won very well at Sandown last time out. He’s up 8lbs for that and up two grades too so more is needed but certainly looks a horse on the up. The call though is for the Sir Mark Prescott team to continue their fine form at present – at the time of writing they are 8 from 29. They run RUDE AWAKENING, who could be a typical Prescott improver they run up a sequence with. He bolted-up by 6 lengths last time out at Doncaster and despite being raised 10lbs for that won with any amount in-hand. This will only be his third run on the turf and eighth run in total so with the visor on again (wore it for the first time last time) can go well. Luke Morris rides.

1.10 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y ITV

13/16 – Had won at least at Listed class before
13/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
10/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
6/16 – Trained by John Gosden
5/16 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/16 – Trained by David Elsworth
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The last 5 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old
Endless Time won the race 12 months ago (11/4 fav)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: The John Gosden camp have a fine record in this race – winning it in 2011, 2012 and also last year, so their Precious Ramotswe can go well. This 4 year-old was a Group Three winner over 1m6f at York last time out so can be expected to make full use of that proven stamina here over this shorter trip. The 108-rated Horseplay sets the standard on the ratings and can be expected to be a lot fitter after a recent second at York last time in the Middleton Stakes. However, her best runs to date have been over shorter trip and the three times she’s tried this 1m4f distance he’s come up short – based on that she’s overlooked. The two 3 year-olds in the race – Mrs Slippy and Flattering – will be popular too, especially the last-named as she comes from the Aidan O’Brien yard. She was fifth in the Epsom Oaks but franked that run by winning a Group Three at Cork next time and with that coming on quick ground will love conditions. She gets a handy 12lbs from the older horses too. However, the last five winners of this race have been aged 4 so with that in mind the only course and distance winner in the field – GOD GIVEN – gets the call. From the Luca Cumani yard that won this race in 2013, she got back to winning ways here in the Pinnacle Stakes last month and despite only winning by ½ a length looked to have a bit more in-hand than the winning margin suggested. Quick ground the track and trip are all plusses while jockey Jamie Spencer knows the horse well, having won on her three times.

Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket

 

1.45 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y ITV

Recent Old Newton Cup Winners

2017 – Dylan Mouth (25/1)
2016 – Tawdeea (8/1)
2015 – Notarised (12/1)
2014 – De Rigueur (9/1)
2013 – Star Lahib (8/1)
2012 – Number Theory (8/1)
2011 – Halicarnassus (14/1)
2010 – Dangerous Midge (17/2)
2009 – Red Merlin (15/2 jfav)
2008 – Mad Rush (5/2 fav)
2007 – Dansili Dancer (15/2)
2006 – Consular (16/1)
2005 – Zeitgeist (9/1)
2004 – Alkaased (7/1)
2003 – Collier Hill (8/1)
2002 – Sun Bird (40/1)

Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends

14/16 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Won no more than 5 times before
12/16 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/16 – Aged 4 years-old
11/16 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
10/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Raced within the last 7 days
9/16 – Irish or USA bred
8/16 – Carried 8-10 or less
7/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/16 – Had won a race at Haydock before
4/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/16 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: A tough race to unravel here, but all the midweek rage has been about one horse in the antepost betting – Atty Persse. This Roger Charlton-trained Godolphin runner looks as if he’s been laid-out for the race after being kept fresh since being gelded last August. He ran away with the King George V Stakes at Ascot last June but didn’t quite make the grade when upped into Group class after. The return to handicap company will help and he’s only 6lbs higher than when romping away in that Royal Ascot race last season. Jamie Spencer rides and there is every chance that now he’s been gelded his progression into Listed or Group Class will be a lot more successful – he’ll need to win this well if that statement is going to turn out to be true. However, as a result he doesn’t look much value in a race like this and with 11 of the last 16 winners carrying 9-1 or less he falls down in this trends with 9-4 to carry. Another main trend to note is that 13 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or younger, while 11 of the last 16 runnings were won by a 4 year-old. Trainer Mark Johnston won the race in 2013 and 2015. He’s got several in the race again – Rainbow Rebel, Titi Makfi, Aclimatise and Sofia’s Rock and it’s the last-named of that bunch that might come out on top. SOFIA’S ROCK is the only horse in the race that has raced in the last 7 days and with 9 of the last 16 winners fitting that stat it’s quite a big one to ignore. This 4 year-old is also a proven course and distance winner at the track and races off the same mark as last time when a close second at Windsor. Silvestre De Sousa has also been booked to ride which is always a good sign for a Johnston horse. Despite being run over 1m4f the draw has played it’s part too with 11 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower – this will help knock out four of the 17 runners. So, based on those main trends the other three to focus on in the race look to be WINGINGIT, ACLIMATISE & GOLDEN WOLF. The first and last-named runners come here off the back of solid recent runs and with the expected improvement can go well from those priced bigger while Aclimatise is another Mark Johnston runner. He won well three runs back at Newmarket but has since disappointed. The Chelmsford surface last time might not have suited and the time before was short of room when looking as if he’d be placed at Sandown. He looks an interesting runner from the Johnston team who over the years are no strangers to winning these big handicaps with their second or third strings based on the betting.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team