2018 Breeders’ Cup Trends

2018 Breeders' Cup Trends

The 2018 Breeders’ Cup will be staged this year at Churchill Downs racecourse for the ninth time – and with plenty of mega-pots up for grabs then the best horses from around the globe will be heading to the Kentucky track in hope of making it into the Breeders’ Cup record books.

We take a look at four of the main races – the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mares Turf, Breeders’ Cup Turf, Breeders’ Cup Mile and, of course, the Breeders’ Cup Classic from a trends and stats angle………

 

6.04 – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) 1m3f

Past Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Winners

2017 – Wuheida
2016 – Queen’s Trust
2015 – Stephanie’s Kitten
2014-  Dayatthespa
2013 – Dank
2012 – Zagora
2011 – Perfect Shirl
2010 – Shared Account
2009 – Midday
2008 – Forever Together
2007 – Lahudood
2006 – Ouija Board
2005 – Intercontinental
2004 – Ouija Board

Key Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Trends

14/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/14 – Won by either a UK (6) or US (8) based yard
14/14 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
12/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower (note, different tracks)
11/14 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Had won no more than 6 times
6/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Drawn in stalls 5,6 or 7 (note, different tracks)
4/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 6 runnings went to trainer Chad Brown

The boys in blue of Godolphin took this race 12 months ago and they look to have another great chance this year – this time with WILD ILLUSION. Since running second in the Epsom Oaks back in June she’s progressed to land the Group One Nassu Stakes and Group One Prix de l’Opera. She beat Magic Wand by a length the last day too so should have the measure of that O’Brien runner again and can cap-off what’s already been a cracking season for the horse and the Godolphin camp. Of the rest, the Frankie-ridden Eziyra, from the Dermot Weld yard, is feared too, while from the US horses Sistercharlie is their main hope and fits a lot of the key trends.

7.36 – Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

Past Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners

2017 – World Approval
2016 – Tourist
2015 – Tepin
2014 – Karakontie
2013 – Wise Dan
2012 – Wise Dan
2011 – Court Vision
2010 – Goldikova
2009 – Goldikova
2008 – Goldikova
2007 – Kip Deville
2006 – Miesque’s Approval
2005 – Artie Schiller
2004 – Singletary

Key Breeders´ Cup Mile Trends

14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Aged 4 or older
10/14 – US-trained winners
10/14 – Had won a Group/Grade1 race before
7/14 – Drawn between stalls 8-11 (note, different tracks)
7/14 – Winning favourites (including 7 of last 9)
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – French-trained winners
0/14 – UK/IRE-trained winners
Trainer Mark Casse has won 2 of the last 3 renewals

Plenty of European interest here with Aidan O’Brien having four runners – Clemmie, Gustav Klimt, I Can Fly and Happily – jockey bookings suggest the Ryan Moore-ridden Gustav Klimt is their main hope. Frankie rides Expert Eye for Stoute, while the William Haggas team send over One Master, who is improving all the time after two good recent wins. The French raider – Polydream – is another that sets a decent standard after winning the Group One Maurice de Gheest at Deauville back in August. She’s since flopped on Arc day at Longchamp though with ONE MASTER (e/w) beating her just over 3 lengths. With that in-mind the Haggas horse has to be one for the shortlist but might need a bit of James Doyle magic from stall 1. It is worth noting it’s not been a great race for the foreign raiders though. So, the other interesting runner is the US-trained OSCAR PERFORMANCE. This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main stats and was a top winner of the Grade One Woodbine Stakes last time out. Draw 5 looks ideal and the only time he’s raced on yielding ground he dotted-up by 6 lengths.

8.56 – Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f

Past Breeders´ Cup Turf Winners

2017 – Talismanic
2016 – Highland Reel
2015 – Found
2014 – Main Sequence
2013 – Magician
2012 – Little Mike
2011 – St Nicholas Abbey
2010 – Dangerous Midge
2009 – Conduit
2008 – Conduit
2007 – English Channel
2006 – Red Rocks
2005 – Shirocco
2004 – Better Talk Now

Key Breeders´ Cup Turf Trends

13/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won a Group/Grade 1 before
10/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher (note, different tracks)
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/14 – European-trained winners
9/14 – Placed favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/14 – US-trained winners
1/14 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 7 runnings went to trainer Aidan O’Brien

This really should be ENABLE first the rest playing for places. The John Gosden-trained Arc heroine is the clear form pick and the highest-rated horse in the field and should take all the beating again here. Those against her might look to her having a hard race last time at Longchamp but she’s had a month to get over that and let’s not forget it was only her second run this year! She’s entitled to have come on for that and Frankie continues in the saddle. Of the rest, jockey Ryan Moore has a great record in this race – with 4 wins – so his mount – Magical – can’t be ruled out. She gets 4lbs from Enable and also bounced back to form with a top win in the Group One Fillies and Mares race on Champions Day at Ascot last time out. Waldgeist, who was fourth in the Arc, is another to consider, while the US challenge is lead by the Bill Mott-trained Channel Maker.

9.44 – Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f

Past Breeders’ Cup Classic Winners

2017 – Gun Runner
2016 – Arrogate
2015 – American Pharoah
2014 – Bayern
2013 – Mucho Macho Man
2012 – Fort Larned
2011 – Drosselmeyer
2010 – Blame
2009 – Zenyatta
2008 – Raven’s Pass
2007 – Curlin
2006 – Invasor
2005 – Saint Liam
2004 – Ghostzapper

Key Breeders´ Cup Classic Trends

14/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/14 – Had won over at least 9f before
13/14 – Raced in the last 9 weeks
13/14 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
13/14 – USA-trained winners
13/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won at least 5 times before
10/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Belmont Park last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 4 winners were trained by Bob Baffert
In the 32 runnings to date of the Breeders’ Cup Classic – 4 year-old horses have the best record – winning 14, while 3 year-olds have taken 12 and 5 year-olds have won 8.

winning 14, while 3 year-olds have taken 12 and 5 year-olds have won 8.

With three of the last 4 winners of the Classic trained by Bob Baffert then it’s hard to ignore his runners – West Coast and Mckinzie – both look evenly matched and can go well. Of the two MCKINZIE just gets the nod though. He’s won four of his 5 starts and there should be more to come. Being a 3 year-old he gets an allowance too and draw 6 looks ideal. The US runners over the years also have a cracking record in the race – winning 13 of the last 14 – so others to note are Accelerate, Catholic Boy and Mind Your Biscuits, while the European challenge is spearheaded by Mendelssohn, Thunder Snow and the prolific ROARING LION (e/w). Yes, the last-named has had a tough season but is unbeaten (4-from-4) over this 1m2f trip and that’s hard to ignore. He got up in the closing stages over a mile at Ascot but is a better horse over this trip, while his gutsy attitude will also be a big asset.