2018 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends & Free Tips

2018 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends & Free Tips

Run at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is handicap race this gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 1st December.

Like – Did you know that 15 of the last 16 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Cup Winners

2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 –  GINGEMBRE (16/1)

Key Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
12/15 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/15 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
9/15 – Rated between 140 and 151
9/15 – Had a previous run that season
8/15 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (26 runnings) there have been 13 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old

 

 

Plenty of trends to get stuck into ahead of the ‘big one’ with horses aged 8 or younger having the best recent record which is bad news for the likes of The Young Master (9), Go Conquer (9) and Sizing Tennesse (10). 13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top three last time out, while 12 of the last 16 carried 10-13 or more in weight. With all that in mind, the two at the head of the betting – Elegant Escape and THOMAS PATRICK tick a lot of boxes. The pair met were separated by just ½ a length last time at Sandown and with a 5lb pull in favour of Thomas Patrick here then it should be a fascinating renewal. Both are also proven course winners and with 50% of the last 16 winners of this race having landed a chase race at the Berkshire track then this is another plus ahead of their chance. Dingo Dollar and Ms Parfois are other course winners that tick a lot of the main trends so can’t be ruled out, while the Harry Fry-trained American was popular in the race last year but, don’t forget, he was pulled-up that day so has a bit to prove. The Paul Nicholls-trained Black Corton is another to consider and is sure to make a bold bid from the front but it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry – only the likes of Denman and Trabolgan have won this race in recent years with such a burden. Nicky Henderson has won the prize twice since 2012 and will be looking to add to that with BEWARE THE BEAR (e/w). He’s anther course winner here and won first time out last season so the 224 day break isn’t a big worry. He also returns from a wind op and if fully tuned-up can go best of the bigger-priced runners.