2018 Vertem Futurity Trophy Free Tips and Trends

2018 Vertem Futurity Trophy Free Tips and Trends

Many people will know the race as the Racing Post Trophy but we’ve a new sponsor this year, with the race now run as the VERTEM FUTURITY TROPHY. The race is staged each year at Doncaster racecourse and is for 2 year-olds only.

The Group One race is run over a distance of 1m and is an excellent guide and trial to the following year’s Classics, in particular the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby – backed up in recent years with High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized and, most-recently, Camelot all winning the this race before going onto take the Epsom Derby the following season, while last year’s winner – Saxon Warrior went onto land the 2,000 Guineas this season.

While jockey Andrea Atzeni has been having a cracking time in the race in recent years – winning it 4 times in the last five years, while Aidan O’Brien has won the race eight times.

We take a look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th October.

 

Recent Vertem Futurity Trophy Winners

2017 – Saxon Warrior (13/8 fav)
2016 – Rivet (11/4)
2015 – Marcel (33/1)
2014 – Elm Park (13/8 fav)
2013 – Kingston Hill (7/2 fav)
2012 – Kingsbarns (15/8 fav)
2011 – Camelot (10/11 fav)
2010 – Casamento (2/1 fav)
2009 – St Nicholas Abbey (13/8 fav)
2008 – Crowded House (7/1)
2007 – Ibn Khaldun (11/4 fav)
2006 – Authorized (25/1)
2005 – Palace Episode (20/1)
2004 – Motivator (6/4 fav)
2003 – American Post (5/6 fav)
2002 – Brian Boru (11/8 fav)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury

 

Racing Vertem Futurity Trophy Betting Trends

15/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
14/16 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
14/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Foaled in February or later
13/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Winning favourites
11/16 – Had raced at least twice previously
11/16 – Won their last race
10/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Had won over a mile before
9/16 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (6) last time out
6/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/16 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
3/16 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
2/16 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
1/16 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 8 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2017
The average SP in the last 15 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: A new name to this final Group One of the season, but still the same look as the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard are well-represented again with three of the 11 runners. They are looking for their ninth win in the race and it’s Magna Grecia that will be heading there as their main hope. This 2 year-old won his maiden on debut at Naas well and then wasn’t’ disgraced when a close second at Newmarket in the Autumn Stakes. He’s a horse that’s clearly held in high regard and can be expected to have learned a lot from those first two runs. It’s also been a good race for the favourites in recent years so his chance in an obvious one – it would be a shock if he’s not in the mix. However, at the prices and the fact he’s not yet won over a mile his knockers do have a few things to cling to. With that in mind the John Gosden runner – TURGENEV (e/w) – could be the value call against him. The yard has actually never won this race but with a 24% record with their juveniles at the track they do well with their youngsters here. This colt also heads here in a three-timer after wins at Newcastle and HQ – both over a mile, so we know he gets the trip well. Yes, this is a step up, but he’s caught the eye in those wins and the yard will certainly know the time of day as to whether he’s up to this leap up in grade – they clearly feel he is. Frankie gets the leg-up as this combination will be hoping to cap-off what’s already been another top year for Gosden and Mr Dettori. The yard also run Kick On, who won very well last time out, but you feel Turgenev is their main hope. Of the rest, Phoenix Of Spain ran the classy Too Darn Hot to just under two lengths last time in the Group Two Champagne Stakes at Doncaster so sets a fair standard too. He is stepping up from 7f to a mile though so has a bit to prove regarding the trip, while the Charles Hills yard are only 4 from 43 with their 2 year-olds at the track. Great Scot is another to note having won three of his four, while with jockey Andrea Atzeni having won 4 of the last 5 runnings of this race his mount Raakib Alhawa would be foolish to totally ignore too.