2018 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 21st June)

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th July 2018

As we move into DAY THREE at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more top-notch races to take in that include the Ribblesdale Stakes, Britannia Stakes and Norfolk Stakes, but day three has always only ever been about one race – the Ascot Gold Cup! Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be going for his 8th win in the race, while – Did you know that 12 of the last 16 Ascot Gold Cup favourites finished in the top three?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Previous winners over 5f
15/15 – Had at least 1 previous run
14/15 – Had a RPR of 106+
13/15 – Won their previous race
13/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/15 – Foaled in March or April
10/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Windsor last time out
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 3 winners
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: We get a chance to see some of the stars of the future on show here. It’s hard to ignore the 29% strike-rate that trainer Aidan O’Brien has at the track with his 2 year-olds (7 from 24) so, with that in mind, his LAND FORCE is a good place to start. With three career runs he’s one of the more experienced in the field and after fading over 6f last time the drop back to 5f looks a plus and the yard have also won two of the last three runnings of this. With 9 of the last 12 winners also coming between stalls 7-12 then he’s also got this in his favour after being handed the 7 berth – he looks decent value to me for a yard we know do well with their youngsters here and also have a fine recent record in this race. We’ve also got another Wesley Ward-trained US raider in the race – Shang Shang Shang – and it goes without saying that the pure fact this filly comes over is a tip in itself. She’s the only filly in the race so also gets a handy 3lb allowance and made all to win over 4 ½ furlongs on her only start at Keenland back in April. We can expect her to make a bold bid from the front but it’s hard to translate that form to over here, plus will she stay the longer trip at this more testing track and will she set things up for a closer? Vintage Brut was a good Listed winner at Sandown last time out and that win made it 2-from-2 after an easy 7 length win on debut at Thirsk. He had Kinks back in 6th that day but it’s the horse that finished third that day – KONCHEK that I think can turn the tables. This Clive Cox juvenile didn’t get the best of starts that day and also hung a bit left so actually did very well to finish just ½ a length off the winner. However, it’s the way he finished the race that caught the eye and over this stiffer track that will suit his running style much more. He won on debut at HQ so knows how to get his head in front and the Clive Cox camp know how to win this race after taking the prize in 2012 and also boast a fair 17% record with their juveniles here. Of the rest, trainer Richard Fahey is 0 from 21 with his 2 year-olds here so his Charming Kid is overlooked, while the Mick Channon camp are not much better (2 from 33) – they run the already-mentioned Kinks.

 

3.05 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Key Trends

14/15 – Had not raced at Ascot before
12/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/15 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
9/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ran at Epsom last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
8 of the last 12 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Despite being run over 1m2f it seems there is a key draw trend building up in this race with no winner from stall 1 in the last 12 years, plus 10 of the last 12 winners hailing from stalls 5 or higher. With that in mind the horses drawn in 1-5 are overlooked – Main Street, Masaarr, Silver Quartz, Zaaki and Sakour. The boys in blue of Godolphin are mob-handed here too with three runners – Nordic Lights, who was last seen running 5th in the Dante Stakes, National Army and KEY VICTORY as they look to follow-up their wins in the last two runnings of this race. It’s actually the last-named of that trio that appeals the most after being beaten just under 4 lengths in the French Derby last time out. That was only his third career run and it also came on much softer ground than was ideal. The drop into a Group Three will help and with that experience under his belt can be expected to have more in the locker – William Buick – who has been on his back in all three of his races, continues in the saddle, while stall 10 ticks the already-mentioned draw trend. The powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have Hunting Horn in the race and this one is closely-matched with Key Victory after running sixth in the French Derby. He can go well too, but despite winning this race a few times in the last 15 years, the O’Brien camp haven’t tasted glory in the last 10 years. Of the rest, it might also pay to have a small interest in the Owen Burrows-trained WADILSAFA. This 3 year-old has only had two career runs but caught the eye in winning last time at Newmarket. That came over a mile so the step up to 1m2f is an unknown, but breeding suggests it’s worth a crack – he certainly wasn’t stopping that day and it’s interesting connections have kept him fresh since, with this race clearly being a firm target.

 

3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
12/15 – Placed in their previous race
12/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/15 – Won their last race
5/15 – Irish-trained winners (4 of last 6)
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Another race the Godolphin camp have targeted with success over the years and in WILD ILLUSION then look to have another big chance. This 113-rated filly is the top-rated in the field and was last seen running well to be second in the Epsom Oaks. Yes, she was sent off favourite that day but stall 1 wasn’t ideal there and probably did well to finish just over 4 lengths off the winner. There are still a few questions to answer surrounding the trip but I feel she stayed it well last time to warrant another crack at it. She’s already a Group One winner too, but as a result has to give 3lbs away to the rest but the form of her runs this season when fourth in the 1,000 Guineas and fourth in the Oaks means she’s the horse that brings by far the best form into the race. Of the rest, and with Aidan O’Brien training the Oaks winner then he’ll know where he stands with Wild Illusion and, therefore, his runners Sizzling, Sarrocchi, Athena and Magic Wind. Of the quartet, Magic Wind, who was fourth in the Oaks looks their main hope but that run also leaves him a fair bit to find with the selection. Perfect Clarity also ran in the Oaks (7th) so you feel has a bit to do so the potential fly in the ointment for the Godolphin horse can come from Sun Maiden. This Frankel colt really could be anything. He was very well-backed last time at Salisbury and that support was more than justified after winning by an eye-catching 12 lengths over 1m2f. He couldn’t have been more impressive, however, when looking at the second at third, they’ve hardly franked the form since – with the second White Light getting beaten as a hot favourite just last Sunday. Therefore, even though this horse has done little wrong, I’d prefer to stick with the proven Group form and Wild Illusion the one that sets the standard.

 

4.20 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends

14/16 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
13/16 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
13/16 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Favourites that were placed
10/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/16 – Won their last race
9/16 – Aged 5 or older
8/16 – Won by the favourite
7/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/16 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2
10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7 of the last 12 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
Since 1949 there have been 13 multiple winners of the race

TQ VERDICT: Fair cases can be made for the French raider – Vazirabadand also the proven course winner Torcedor, but really this should be fought out between Stradivarius and the 2016 winner ORDER OF ST GEORGE. Vazirabad is a Group One winner at this trip and from 22 flat run has won a staggering 15 and finished second in five others – meaning he’s only been out of the first two twice during his career. With that in-mind he looks sure to be involved and those looking for a bit more value outside the main two in the market can do little wrong here. Torcedor was an easy 5 length winner of the Sagaro Stakes last time here but prior to that has tasted defeat several times against Vazirabad and Order Of St George, plus he could only manage fifth in the race 12 months ago. Stradivarius landed the Queen’s Vase here over 1m6f last season and has turned into a top performer at this level in this staying flat races. He returned this season with a nice win in the Yorkshire Cup and at just 4 years-old should have more to come. However, he was beaten fair and square inti third (1 length) by Order Of St George in the Long Distance Cup here on Champions Day last October and I think it can be more of the same here. We all know the Aidan O’Brien camp love to win this race and will be looking for their eighth victory in the contest. He’s still only 6 years-old and could be a force in this still for many years to come and has looked better than ever this term with wins at Navan and Leopardstown. So, only 9 runners for this year’s renewal but still a fascinating affair. Yes, we’ve several potential challengers to the 2016 champion Order Of St Georgebut I’d rather stick with proven winning form in this race and side with the O’Brien runner regaining his title.

 

5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
12/15 – Failed to win their previous race
12/15 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
11/15 – Placed last time out
11/15 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/15 – Had never run at Ascot before
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price
8/15 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
6/15 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
8 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 13/1

TQ VERDICT: Another tough race to unravel with 30 runners heading to post. However, with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from a double-figure draw and also 11 of the last 13 winners carrying 8-13 or less then this helps whittle down the runners. If the weight trend is to be repeated then the horses from 14 (Ventura Knight) down fit the bill, while of that bunch the ones that have been handed a double-figure draw areVentura Knight, Ballymount, Curiosity, Crack On Crack On, George Of Hearts, Desert Wind, Vale Of Kent, Sam Gold, Maverick Officer, Alfa McGuire, Corrosive and Ostillo tick the boxes. With 11 of the last 15 winners having also been placed last time out then of those 12, then all bar Ballymount & Alfa McGuire fit the bill. The Hugo Palmer-trained Corrosive was a nice winner over course and distance last time out and a 4lb rise for that looks fair. With just four career runs and proven track form he’s sure to be popular. The Richard Hannon camp are just 6 from 124 with this age group at the track so Magnificent and Qaysar are overlooked. The same can be said for the Clive Cox camp (1 from 34) – they run the hat-trick-seeking Crack On Crack On. In contrast, the John Gosden yard are having a great meeting and often fair well in these big-field handicaps, plus they have a 17% record with their 3 year-olds here – therefore, their runners Stylehunter and Il Primo Sole are interesting, especially the last-named with Frankie riding. David Simcock’s team are 4 from 16 with their 3 year-olds at the track so of those at the bigger prices – MAVERICK OFFICERcatches the eye. This well-bred 3 year-old was a winner at Haydock last time out over a mile and his two runs over this trip now read 2-1. He’s up 5lbs for that win but clearly heads here in tip-top form and draw 12 will give him options – he looks a tad overpriced to me. The other yard that does well here is the Roger Varian camp (7 from 41, 17%) so theirSAM GOLD is another to note. A winner last time out at Doncaster, albeit on soft ground, but has gone well on a quicker surface in the past too. A 5lb rise for that 2 ¼ length win looks fair and he’s another that will have options from stall 11. Connections also reach for the first-time cheekpieces with can hopefully eke out a bit more improvement. The final one to have an interest in is the Jamie Spencer-ridden GEORGE OF HEARTS. Why? Well, Spencer has won this race 4 times in the last 15 years, including the last two. This 3 year-old is drawn wide in 32, but that’s fine and his recent second here behind the improving Society Power was a decent effort. He ran on really well over that 7f trip that day so the 1m distance here looks a big plus too and that extra yardage can see him go close under a jockey that will be looking for a famous treble in this race.

 

5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 – Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
15/15 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
14/15 – Never raced at Ascot before
14/15 – Placed last time out
12/15 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
8/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Won their previous race
5/15 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (3)
4/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 10-15 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

 

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years – winning it five times in the last 15 years, but the last of those came back in 2012 now. So, maybe they due another win? The ‘Always Trying’ yard are mob-handed with Lucky Deal, Elegiac, Baghdad, Making Miracles, Baileys Excelerate and Communique their runners. All six should be respected but with 12 of the last 15 winners carrying 8-13 or less then Making Miracles, Lucky Deal, Elegiac and Baghdad are the ones that tick this weight trend. 9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 10-20 too so MAKING MIRACLES and BAGHDAD also have this trend on their side, while 14 of the last 15 were placed last time out – another plus for this pair. Making Miracles was an easy 4 ½ length winner at Leicester last time out and before that was a short-head second to his stablemate Baghdad at York. The pair are, therefore, closely-matched but are also two of just a handful of proven winners over this 1m4f trip, which must count for something. Of the rest, the Godolphin yard have a decent hand too with Dubhe and Cross Counter but are also the two highest-rated in the field so have to concede weight all round. Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien will be popular too with Lucius Tiberius,but also probably not much value in the betting. Finally, John Gosden is the other stable with a fair hand in Cassini and the Frankie-ridden First Eleven, who went into many a notebook last time out with a smooth 5 length win at Newbury. A 14lb hike for that win does look a tad harsh though but he’s clearly a horse on the up and can’t be ruled out in the first-time tongue-tie.