2019 Eider Chase Trends & Free Tips

The Eider Chase is run over a gruelling 4m1f trip at Newcastle racecourse and is a handicap race that is seen as another key Grand National trial ahead of the big Liverpool race the following month. In recent years the David Pipe-trained Comply Or Die (2008) is the most recent example of the winner of this race going onto land the Merseyside Marathon that same season.

We take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key trends and stats to take into the 2019 renewal – this year run on Saturday 23rd Feb.

Recent Betfred Eider Chase Winners

2017 – BAYWING (8/1)
2017 – MYSTEREE (10/1)
2016 – ROCKING BLUES  (8/1)
2015 – MILBOROUGH (18/1)
2014 – WYCK HILL (9/1)
2013 – No Race
2012 – PORTRAIT KING (11/4fav)
2011 – COMPANERO (16/1)
2010 – No Race
2009 – MERIGO (5/1)
2008 – COMPLY OR DIE (11/1)
2007 – NIL DESPERANDUM (6/1)
2006 – PHILSON RUN (10/1)
2005 – No Race
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (28/1)
2003 – No Race
2002 – THIS IS SERIOUS (4/1 fav)
2001 – NARROW WATER (6/1)
2000 –  SCOTTON GREEN (8/1)

Key Betfred Eider Chase Betting Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 3m before
13/15 – Aged 10 or younger
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
12/15 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Irish-bred
11/15 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Officially rated between 131-140
9/15 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/15 – Placed favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/15 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

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Several key trends to take notice of here – notably that 13 of the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger, while 9 of the last 15 successful horses were actually aged 8 or 9. 12 of the last 15 also carried 11st or more so despite the gruelling test this race often goes to one of the higher-rated horses in the race. We’ve also only seen two winning favourites in the last 15 years, but the market leaders still run well – 8 of the last 15 have been placed, while 11 of the last 15 winners came from the first four in the betting. Last year’s winner, Baywing, will be hoping to become the first back-to-back winner since the 1960’s and if he is to win again, he’ll need to do so rated 7lbs higher. Trainer Paul Nicholls has never won the race but in VICTENTE (e/w) he looks to hold a fair chance. This former Scottish Grand National winner is back to the mark that saw him land that stamina-sapping Ayr race in 2017. He’ll like the drying ground and a recent third at Taunton will have him spot-on for this. WEST OF THE EDGE (e/w) was runner-up in the race 12 months and despite now an 11 year-old is also 3lbs lower this time – he can go well with just 10st 3lbs to carry and William Kennedy booked to ride. Mysteree won the race in 2017, but has rather lost his way since and is hard to get excited about. Ange Des Malberaux is an improving stayer from the Dan Skelton yard that deserves to take the chance in this better race – with only 10st 5lbs he could be dangerous. The Pipe-trained Daklondike is another to note, but has failed to complete in three of his last four. Finally, JP McManus has two in the race – Kimberlite Candy and Rock On Fruity – both are proven course winners and head here off the back of good runs so are sure to have their supporters too.

 

 

 

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