2019 Epsom Derby Free Tips and Trends

2018 Epsom Derby Free Tips and Trends

It’s the highlight race on the flat racing calendar as the best middle distance 3 year-olds of the season lock horns in the Epsom Derby. Steeped in history winners of the race will see their stud value rocket as soon as they cross the line.

Did you know that ALL of the last 16 Derby winners had raced no more than 5 times before?

Here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we take a look at recent winners and highlight the key trends ahead of the 2019 renewal – this year run on Saturday 1st June 2019

 

Past Epsom Derby Winners

2018 – Masar (16/1)
2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends

16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Favourites that were placed
11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/17 – Had won a Group One before
8/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Won by the favourite
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
5/17 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/17 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/17 – Won over 1m4f before
0/17 – Run at the course before
0/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017

 

TQ VERDICT: Dante winner – Telecaster – was supplemented for the Derby at a cost of £85k so connections will be hoping to recoup that with at least a top four finish. He’s a fast-improving colt and Dante winners to have a good recent record of following up in the Derby – he’s one for the shortlist. However, it’s a race that is again dominated by the Aidan O’Brien yard, with seven of the 13 runners. They don’t always win it with their main one in the betting either so it’s hard to put you off any – two years ago they won it with a 40/1 shot! Broome, Japan, who was fourth in the Dante, and Anthony Van Dyck, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial easily, are all big players for the yard. Broome has won two Group Three’s in easy fashion and looks a very useful prospect. However, it’s still hard to get away from their SIR DRAGONET, who went into many a notebook when landing the Chester Vase – beating stablemate, Norway, by 8 lengths. That was only this Camelot colt’s second run and even though he still looked green – once the penny dropped he looked a class act. There should be a lot more to come. Yes, the quicker ground here and the track unknown is a small concern but he showed the ability to handle the tricky Chester course last time and that would have taught him a lot. Of the rest, Bangkok actually beat Telecaster at Doncaster earlier this season so has to have a big say too – he’s looked impressive since stepping up in trip to 1m2f and there could be more to come now upped to 1m4f. If you can forgive it’s poor last run then Godolphin’s Line Of Duty could bounce back – his form prior to that Dante flop was decent but he’ll need to prove he gets the trip. But the other one of interest is another O’Brien runner – CIRCUS MAXIMUS (e/w). This 3 year-old won the Dee Stakes at Chester last time in workmanlike fashion but the extra 2 furlongs here look a big plus. He looked better the further they went last time at Chester and it’s interesting the cheekpieces are on for the first time. Of the bigger-priced O’Brien runners, he looks the most interesting to me.