2019 New Year’s Day Free Tips and Trends: Cheltenham

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st July 2018

Cheltenham – New Year’s Day TV Trends & Tips

A massive day of action at Cheltenham this New Year’s Day as we begin 2019 with the ITV cameras taking in four races.

As always, we are on hand with a look at all the televised races from Prestbury Park from a trends angle – use these stats to help find the best winning profile of past winners of the race.

 

1.25 – BetBright Dipper Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/16 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
12/16 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
7/16 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Aged 7 years-old
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/16 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

A cracking little contest to get the LIVE action going from Cheltenham this New Year’s Day. The 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner – DEFI DU SEUILL – bounced back to form last time out at Exeter to win for the first time over fences and with that form being upheld since then everything looks in place for another big run. He had Topofthegame back in second that day and that horse ran a blinder at Kempton over Christmas, while he had the useful Black Op, who goes again here too, further back in third. Black Op should be better for that run as it was his first for a while, but, despite having to give 3lbs away this time, I think Defi can still uphold that form. He’s a course winner over hurdles and the way he stayed on last time at Exeter suggests this slightly longer trip will be right up his street. Lostintranslation is another that can’t be ruled out after running well behind La Bague Au Roi the last twice and that form has also been given a shot in the arm. He is a horse that is now five races without a win. Crucial Role was a nice winner at Uttoxeter last time, but this is a step up in grade and the ratings suggest he’s got a bit to find on these terms. The final one is On The Blind Side, who certainly has a say on his best hurdles form. It’s interesting connections are pitching him over fences for the first time in a race like this but after returning from wind surgery he looks ready to kick on again. Yes, he flopped at Aintree last April and was 9 lengths behind Black Op that day but prior to that had won three times over hurdles, including once at Cheltenham. He’s sure to have been well-schooled and if his jumping holds up looks a big player too.

2.00 – Download The Betbright App Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

16/16 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
15/16 – Raced within the last 2 months
14/16 – Had won at least twice over fences before
14/16 – Either French (5) or Irish (9) bred
13/16 – Had won over 2m4f or further (fences) before
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Rated 138 or higher
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard
1/16 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Ballyhill (9/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

Another tight race with all nine looking to have some sort of a say. Give Me A Copper, from the in-form Paul Nicholls yard, plus Divine Spear and Acting Lass are horses of potential and despite all returning from a break here will be tuned-up and ready to run. They’ve all gone well fresh in the past too. The front-running Aso was good winner last time out at Newbury. He can make a bold bid from the front again but with the Venetia Williams yard are just 3 from 72 with their chasers at the track so that would be a worry. Happy Diva and Born Survivor are others to note, while Foxtail Hill is one of just two proven course and distance winners in the field. However, the two I like here are BALLYHILL and DUSTIN DES MOTTES (e/w). The former is the other CD winner in the line-up and bounced back to form last time out at Aintree. Yes, a 10lb hike in the ratings for that looks a tad harsh but he was also the winner of this race last year and at just 8 years-old should have more to come. He’s 11lbs higher than last year but is clearly a better horse too so can go well again. Dustin Des Mottes gets in with just 10-1 and with Charlie Hammond also claiming 5lbs then this 6 year-old gets in with a very light burden. He was only just touched off last time at Ascot and from three runs over fences is yet to finish out of the top three. This will be the longest he’s gone but has run recently as if this extra trip will suit.

2.35 – Simplify Horse Racing Selections With Betfinder At Betbright Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV

14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
12/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/15 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
11/15 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before
10/15 – Rated 130 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/15 – Carried 10-9 or more
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Won by a mare
1/15 – Went onto win the World Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

Vive Le Roi was a nice winner at Newbury last time out but a 9lb rise for that means this 8 year-old will need another step forward. However, with 13 of the last 15 winners aged between 5-7 years-old then this trend looks significant – of those that fit the bill Chameron, Jersey Bean, Shalakar, De Name Evades Me, Juge Et Parti, Forecast and Lord Du Mesnil are the seven that tick the age stat. With 10 of the last 15 winners rated 130+ then of those mentioned De Name Evades Me, Juge Et Pari, Forecast and Lord Du Mesnil would have this trend to overcome as they are all rated in the 120’s. So, the two that catch the eye are the Paul Nicholls-trained CHAMERON (e/w) and the Oliver Sherwood-trained JERSEY BEAN. Yes, the former has fallen and unseated in his last two runs but was in the process of running a big race last time. The yard are in terrific form and with only seven career runs in total there is every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet. Jersey Bean has won two of his three runs this season but his recent second at Market Rasen has since been franked with the winner – Aaron Lad – winning at Cheltenham last month. Richard Johnson is an eye-catching jockey booking too and despite creeping up again in the ratings (up another 6lbs) brings rock solid form to the table.


3.10 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

13/14 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/14 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (8) bred
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/14 – Went onto run in the World Hurdle later that season
6/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Wholestone (9/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

Old Guard and Clyne are generally reliable sorts that are sure to have their supporters. Of the two Old Guard just edges it but is a horse that is placed more often than winning. While, the consistent Clyne should be in the mix but his trainer – Evan Williams – is only 1 from 40 at the track with his hurdlers. Thomas Campbell showed a return to form last time with a fair second at Huntingdon and at a course he’s gone well at before can’t be ruled out. Midnight Shadow is a fast-improving staying hurdler too that won well at Aintree last time and heads down from the Sue Smith yard. However, in what is probably not the best renewal of this race it might be safer to just stick with last year’s winner – WHOLESTONE. Yes, he flopped at Newbury last time in the Long Distance Hurdle but that’s not the first time he’s run badly at that track. He’s a much better horse at Cheltenham with form figures here reading 1-2-1-1-3-1-2-3, so he’s yet to finish out of the first three from 8 runs at Prestbury Park. He also bounced back to take this after flopping in the Long Distance Hurdle last season so I’m not too concerned about that recent disappointment. A slight niggle would be the form of the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, but his track experience and solid form outweighs that for me. The ratings make him the one to beat too (158) so I’ll take him to become the first back-to-back winner of this race since Oscar Whisky (2011/12).