2019 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 22nd June)

2019 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 22nd June)

Into DAY FIVE at ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Chesham Stakes and the Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know that 13 of the last 16 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners were aged 5 or younger?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

2019 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Ran over 6f last time out (9 won)
14/16 – Had just 1 previous career run
13/16 – Were foaled in March or earlier
11/16 – Won their previous race
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
12 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
10 of the last 13 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

TQ VERDICT: A race the Aidan O’Brien yard have won twice in the last three seasons and there’s every chance they will again. Lope Y Fernandez is their main hope this year and after winning his maiden at The Curragh eased down a few weeks ago looks a smart prospect. That cam over 7f too, so we know the trip is fine – he’s a big player, but also likely to be little value. O’Brien also has Harpocrates, United Front and Year Of The Tiger in the race. So, the Charlie Appleby runner – PINATUBO – might be the answer. The yard has a cracking 30% record with their 2 year-olds at the track and with two wins already this well-bred colt has done little wrong. He’ll have the experience edge over the O’Brien runner and even though his two wins have been over 6f, this step up to 7f looks sure to suit and his breeding backs that up. Of the rest, with just a 3% record with his juveniles at the track the Richard Fahey runner Ardenlee Star is overlooked. The Stoute-trained Heaven Forfend can be expected to have come on for it’s debut second at Newbury and the Hannon runner – Sun Power – is another to note. But the other one to have on your radar is the Paul Cole-trained HIGHLAND CHIEF (e/w). The yard are not as powerful as they were in the 90’s but it’s worth pointing out they’ve won this race four times before so know what’s needed. This 2 year-old was impressive on winning on debut at Newbury too and the form of that race has been franked many times since with horses in behind winning. Yes, the step up from 5f to 7f is an unknown but breeding suggests it’s the way to go and he’ll come here fresh from a 2 ½ month break too.

3.05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 – Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

16/17 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/17 – Had 4 or more career runs
11/17 – Had won over 7f before
10/17 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Had run at Ascot before
7/17 – Horses from stall 8 placed
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/17 – Won their previous race
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 11 runnings

TQ VERDICT: The Andrew Balding yard have a decent hand here with Happy Power and Bye Bye Hong Kong in the race – the pair are the joint top-rated in the field and should not be far away. Horses from stall 8 – for some reason – have a good record in the race, being placed 7 times in the last 17 runnings – Space Traveller has been handed the 8 berth today. While the horse from stall 11 has also gone well – been second in the last 11 runnings – URBAN ICON (e/w). This Hannon runner was a fair second last time out to the likely favourite here – Space Blues – but will be 3 or 4 times the price. There was only a neck between them that day so there is every chance the form can be reversed. Angel’s Hideaway is a consistent sort and can run her race again, but has been hard to win with, so the other one of interest is the O’Brien runner – SO PERFECT (e/w). The yard have won this race three times in the past and after an impressive Group Three win at Naas last time over 6f this filly heads here in rude form. The step up to 7f will be a slight negative but she looks a stronger horse now and certainly wasn’t stopping over 6f last time to suggest it’s worth another crack. Momkin, I Am Superman and Marie’s Diamond are others to consider.

3.40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/16 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
14/16 – Placed last time out
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
11/16 – Had run at Ascot before
11/16 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 9 winners)
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/16 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
11 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: Some heavyweight yards have won this race in recent years – with the Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien camps being responsible for a staggering 12 of the last 16 winners! Johnston have COMMUNIQUE (e/w) who could go well at a nice price, while O’Brien has Southern France, who ran Stradivarius to ¾ of a length at York last time out in the Yorkshire Cup. The drop in trip will suit the O’Brien runner and he looks sure to go close, but with just one win from his last seven, he’s not an easy horse to win with. We’ve also got the return of the 2018 Epsom Derby hero – Masar – but he’s not been out since and despite being the top-rated and the one to beat on that form, it remains to be seen if he’s at that level on his return after 385 days off. If you can forgive the flop of Lah Ti Dar last time (6th Coronation Cup) then she’d be a player and gets 3lbs from the colts, while Salouen, who was third in the Coronation Cup, is the only proven CD winner in the field, so that must count for something. Defoe was a slightly surprising winner of the Coronation Cup at Epsom last time, but with that race having many of today’s runners in then if Defoe can uphold that form he’s sure to be going close. However, the fly in the ointment could be the Stoute entry – MIRAGE DANCER (e/w). I’ve already mentioned that good record the yard has in the race (won 4 of the last 5), plus this 5 year-old heads here having won well at Goodwood. Yes, that was only a Listed race, but is a G3 winner and gone close at this level before too. He’s run well three times at the track before – and was a staying-on fifth in the Wolferton Stakes over 1m2f at this meeting last season. He’s a better horse over this trip and barring one blip in Hong Kong back in December is a very consistent middle distance performer that can make his presence felt again.

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 – Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

15/16 – Previous distance (6f) winners
12/16 – Failed to win their last race
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Previous Group Race winners
11/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/16 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/16 – Trained by James Fanshawe
5 of the last 14 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
6 of the last 14 winners returned a double-figure price.

TQ VERDICT: Invincible Army is a proven CD winner and head here in great form after two top wins at Doncaster and York – he can go well and acts on any ground. French raider – City Light – also has the form to go close and was a close runner-up in this race 12 months ago. US runner – Bound For Nowhere – was third last year too and can’t be ruled out, but the fourth – THE TIN MAN (e/w) – might be able to go several places better. He’ll be a lot fitter for a recent return run at Windsor (3rd) and was only beaten just over a length last year. He goes on any ground and despite not getting any younger would have been trained for this one race in mind all season. Of course, Tuesday’s Kings Stand winner – Blue Point – will be popular too, but this extra furlong and the fact he only raced 4 days ago give those looking to take him on a few reasons. He’s the top-rated in the field and still the one to beat, but even though it’s hard to put you off him, there might be better value elsewhere. Sands Of Mali is better than his recent third at Hamilton and is a proven G1 winner over this CD, while the speedy Kachy can be expected to take them along at a pace but run out of steam in conditions and in this company. So, the other interesting one at a nice price is the Stoute runner – DREAM OF DREAMS (e/w). This improving sprinter won well at Windsor last time out – beaten The Tin Man into third – and looks to be a better horse than last term. Any ground is fine and he looked to have a bit up his sleeve last time to suggest he could run well here.

 

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1) (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

19/19 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
19/19 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
18/19 – Finished sixth or better last time out
17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Had won a race over 6f before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
12/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/19 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
9/19 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/19 – Won their previous race
4/19 – Won by the favourite
10 of the last 13 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 13 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
8 of the last 9 winners came from a double-figure stall
6 of the last 8 runnings – the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 8 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 31 winners returning a double-figure price

TQ VERDICT: As always, a tough race to unravel and this year is no different with 28 runners. With 10 of the last 13 winners carrying 9-3 or less then this helps rule out the top 16 on the card though, while with 8 of the last 9 winners coming from the double-figure stalls then this is another trend to note. The horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 8 renewals too, so the David O’Meara-trained – SUMMERGHAND (e/w), with the in-form Danny Tudhope riding, is the first one to note. He’s been second the last twice too and that draw will give the horse a lot of options. This 5 year-old has won on fast and soft ground too and it’s clear this has been a target for a while with the horse coming here fresh off a 48 day break – 16 of the last 19 winners were also aged 4 or 5 years-old. Others to consider that also fit a lot of the main trends are SOLDIER’S MINUTE (e/w), course winner – TIS MARVELLOUS (e/w) and another O’Meara runner – PERFECTION (e/w). The Ryan Moore ridden- Cenotaph will be popular, but at 7 years-old and from draw 8 he’s got a few negatives. Foxtrot Lady would have been more interesting had she not got stall 1, while the Frankie-ridden Danzeno has a good draw in 17, but at 8 years-old will have to defy the age trend for the Mick Appleby team. The final one that will attract interest is Cape Byron. Draw 10 looks okay (just), while as a 5 year-old is the perfect age. He was a good winner of the Victoria Cup here over 7f last time and is only 4lbs higher. If he can keep tabs on them early on over this shorter trip then he’d be a big danger, but that would be my main worry, along with the fact he’s got a lot of weight (9-9).

 

5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

14/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
5/16 – Won by a NH yard
5/16 – Irish-trained winners
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
9 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
10 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

TQ VERDICT: A gruelling contest to end the 2019 Royal Ascot meeting with and all eyes will be on last year’s winner Pallasator to see if he can become the first back-to-back winner since Cover Up in 2002/03. His trainer – Gordon Elliott – has won two of the last three runnings too, so is sure to go well and is the only proven CD winner in the field. At 10 years-old though he’ll also be looking to become only the second horse aged in double-figures to win since 1977. Course winner Cleonte will be a danger if getting the trip – he was third in the Cesarewitch over 2m2f so there is a chance he will and the Balding yard won this in 2013. Black Corton, Youneverall and Couer Blimey are some interesting runners that will be better known to jump racing fans – staying the trip will be fine, but we’ll have to see if they can at what’s likely to be a faster pace. Willie Mullins has a good recent record in the race though and with Ryan Moore booked it’s hard to get away from MAX DYNAMITE. This 9 year-old was third in the 2017 Melbourne Cup and despite not winning recently has run well in much better races than this. The trip will be fine and he’s run well fresh in the past so the long break isn’t too much of a worry. Of the rest, Corelli could be anything over this longer trip – he’s got good form around 1m4f but that’s the furthest he’s gone. However, being a Frankie and Gosden horse he’s sure to be popular with punter pinning their hopes on him staying – it’s a big step up though! So, the main danger can come from LUCKY DEAL (e/w). The Mark Johnston yard have a good record in the race and having won over 2m last time (5 lengths) there is every chance he can back that up by staying the longer trip here. Softer ground would be a worry if more rain came, but if the ground dried out a bit more then that would certainly help his cause.