2019 York Dante Festival Trends & Free Tips (15th Weds – 17th Fri)

York Dante Stakes Free Tips and Key Trends

Yes, a top three days of action ahead on the Knavesmire as York racecourse stages their Dante Festival Meeting (Weds 15th- Fri 17th May), and here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we’ll be covering ALL the LIVE ITV races over the fixture from a trends angle.

We’ll have plenty more Classic clues on offer, none more so that the Dante Stakes on Thursday – a race that has produced four Epsom Derby winners in the last 16 years. We’ve also key races like the Musidora Stakes (Weds) and Yorkshire Cup (Fri) to take in on what’s set to be a cracking three days.

Like all big race days we’ve got the main trends and stats to apply to the race. We’re sure these will help point you find the best profiles of past winners and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners. So, let’s get going!

YORK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

DAY ONE, Wednesday, 15th May 2019

1.50 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Rated between 80 and 93
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/15 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
8/15 – Had run at York before
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Unplaced last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: The stats ahead of this race suggest we look for horses aged 4 or 5 years-old – 14 of the last 15 winners have been these ages. Of the 18 runners this knocks five out. 11 of the last 15 winners also carried 9st 1lb or less in weight so, while 10 of the last 15 came from stalls 6 or higher. The John Gosden yard have a decent 24% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their First Eleven is sure to be popular with Frankie riding too. However, draw 5 and 9-9 in weight mean he’s got these trends to overcome. Top jockey Ryan Moore rode the winners in 2013 and 2014 – both for trainer Sir Michael Stoute too. So, with that in mind the call here is their CRYSTAL KING (e/w). This 4 year-old gets in with just 8-10 in weight and draw 11 looks ideal too. A good win at Wolves last time out will have him spot-on for this and even though this is a much harder race he should have more to come with this only being his seventh career outing.  Of the rest, the improving Fujaira Prince is another to consider but is up 7lbs from last times win at Donny and is also trying this longer trip for the first time. Godolphin won the race last year too so their STEALTH FIGHTER (e/w) and Red Galileo are others to consider, especially the last-named, who gets in with just 8-9 in weight and coming from draw 6 and being a 4 year-old ticks those key trends too. He was a good winner last time out at Yarmouth too and should have more to come.

2.25 – Infinity Tyres Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
13/17 – Had run at York before (5 won at the track before)
13/17 – Had won over this trip before
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
9/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/17 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/17 – Returned either 6/1 or 7/1 in the betting
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Won their previous race
1/17 – Winning outright favourite
9 of the last 10 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 & 2014
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: Very tough race here with many chances and lot of old faces from the handicap sphere. With 16 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger then, of the 22 runners, this is a negative for four runners – Double Up, Captain Colby, Intisaab and Wentworth Falls. The same amount of winners came from stalls 5 or higher, while 13 of the last 17 had won over this trip in the past and at York. Carrying 8-12 or more in weight is another fairly good trend. Vibrant Chords will be interesting with Ryan Moore booked to ride for Henry Candy – a recent second at Kempton was a good return run, but this will be his first run at the track. Gulliver often goes well in this big-field handicaps so can be considered too with the O’Meara yard having a good record in the race – but draw 2 might not be ideal. O’Meara also has Intisaab and ARECIBO (e/w) and the last-named with Danny Tudhope riding can go well at a nice price. He was down the field behind another runner here – Reputation – last time at Ripon but should be a lot fitter for that. He’s also 3lbs lower and sports the first-time cheekpieces here too. Staxton, Desert Doctor and Solidier’s Minute are others to note, but ALJADY (e/w) is the other of interest. This 4 year-old has been gelded since his last run and has won 3 of his 5 career runs. He’s also won first time out for the last two seasons so the 222-day break is not a worry and is only 2lbs higher than his last run.

3.00 – Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
15/17 – Previous Listed or Group Three winners
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Had run at York before
12/17 – Came from stall 7 or lower
12/17 – Had a previous race that season
12/17 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Won by the favourite
4/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Had won a Group One race previously in their career
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1

TQ VERDICT: Limato has won well over this course and distance in the past and is one of the higher rated in the race, while Brando, who is the top-rated in the field, seemed to just get going a bit too late last time on his return run at HQ so should be a lot fitter for it. Major Jumbo, Hey Jonesy and George Bowen are other CD winners in the field to consider, while Jim Crowley, who has a good record in this race, will have another good chance – this time with Yafta. However, the call is for INVINCIBLE ARMY to carry on his winning ways after returning with a 2 length win over Major Jumbo last time at Doncaster. He did it well that day to suggest he’s progressed over the winter again and if running to that level again here looks the one to beat.

3.35 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

16/17 – Had won a race before
15/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
13/17 – Had a previous run that season
13/17 – Finished 4th or better last time
11/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
8/17 – Won by the favourite
8/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 – Previous distance winners over 1m2f
5/17 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 8)
4/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 4)
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
1/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009)
0/17 – Had run at York before
11 of the last 13 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race

TQ VERDICT:  Another trial for the Epsom Oaks here – with Sariska (2009) the last horse to win both races in the same season. With 12 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 1-4 then Blue Gardenia, Nausha, Fresnel and Sand Share look interesting, while Frankie Dettori has won 3 of the last 4 runnings – he rides Entitle for John Gosden, who has won 5 of the last 8 runnings of this race. She was a good winner at Lingfield last time out over a mile but is bred to get further and certainly can’t be ruled out coming from a yard that love to win this race. Frankellina was pulled out of the Lingfield Oaks Trial at the weekend in preference for this and won well on her only start to suggest she’s a player here – and the Haggas yard took this race last year too. Dubai Blue and Swift Rose will be flying the flag for Godolphin, while I expect the Roger Varian-trained Nausha to improve on her recent fourth at Kempton. John Gosden, however, also has SPARKLE ROLL running and after a good win at Sandown last time out is the call. She represents the Gosden yard that have won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this and certainly looked impressive the last day on ground that was also plenty quick enough for her. She’s around 16/1 for the Oaks, but a win here will see that price vanish without trace. Of the rest, Sand Shore is the other of interest for the Ralph Beckett yard. She looks the sort to do better now upped in trip and is from a yard that often do well with their fillies.

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DAY TWO, Thursday, 16th May 2019


1.50 –
Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

11/11 – Had raced at York before
10/11 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/11 – Failed to win last time out
10/11 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/11 – Returned a double-figure price
9/11 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance 3/4 length or shorter
9/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/11 – Aged 6 or older
6/11 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1
6/11 – Favourites placed
5/11 – Rated between 87-92
5/11 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
2/11 – Trained by Michael Easterby
0/11 – Winning favourites
El Astronaute (15/2) won the race in 2018
Duke Of Firenze won the race in 2016 and 2017

TQ VERDICT: The speedsters get us going on day two at York. The key trends suggest looking for horses that have run at York in the past, and that are also running from a single-figure draw. Not having won last time out is key too, while the market leaders don’t have a great record in the race, with no market leaders in the last 11 years going in. Those drawn in single-figures are SAAHEQ, TOMMY TAYLOR, ABEL HANDY, QUICK LOOK, JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, FENDALE, HENLEY, COWBOY SOLDIER and MARNIE JAMES. Of that bunch Cowboy Soldier, Saaheq and Abel Handy won last time out so are overlooked. The one that catches the eye is the Kevin Ryan-trained TOMMY TAYLOR (e/w), who was a solid third at Donny last time out. He gets in off the same mark and is also a course winner here at York. Draw 2 looks ideal and having been rated in the 100’s last season his current mark of 91 is starting to look very attractive. Of those drawn higher, Dark Shot ran well last time and could be heading back into form, while the proven course and distance winner – Copper Knight – is another to consider. However, if the prices allow it – the others drawn low – Henley, Justanotherbottle, Quick Look, who runs for the Mick Easterby yard that won this in 2011 & 2013 and FENDALE (e/w) should not be overlooked either, with the last-named possibly the most interesting. He was second at Newcastle last time but is another proven CD winner here and gets in here off a very low weight (8-4).

2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Won over 1m2f before
12/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Having first run of the season
9/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/15 – Wining favourites (including 6 of last 11)
8/15 – Had raced at York before
5/15 – Winners from stall 4
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Had won at York before
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Irish trained winners
1/15 – French trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1

TQ VERDICT: Mrs Slippy, Nyaleti and Rawdaa are all decent horses in their own rights, but unfortunately they will be coming up against the classy LAH TI DAR here and it will be a shock if the John Gosden runner isn’t taking this. She is rated 114 and that’s 5lbs clear of her nearest rival (Nyaleti). Yes, she was last seen losing as favourite in the Champion Fillies’ and Mares Stakes at Ascot last October but this drop back into Group Two gives her a massive chance and prior to that wasn’t disgraced when second in the St Leger. Okay, the drop back in trip (1m2f) might not be totally ideal but let’s not forget she’s 2-from-2 over this distance and at the age of 4 probably hasn’t lost any of her speed to be able to come with the drop down. Frankie rides and she’s expected to follow-up the yards win in this race from 12 months ago. The Stoute pair of Sun Maiden and Rawdaa are the only other two proven distance winners in the field so can follow the favourite home.

3.00 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

15/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
13/17 – Finished third or better last time out
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Had a previous race that season
10/17 – Won their previous race
9/17 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
4/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/17 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 4 runnings)
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
1/17 – Had run at York before
0/17 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourite in the last 12 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: A top renewal of the Dante Stakes and even though Telecaster, Surfman and Line Of Duty can’t be ruled out this race could be another for Frankie and Gosden with TOO DARN HOT. This unbeaten 3 year-old steps up to 1m2f for the first time after mopping up races over 7f and 1m last season but breeding suggests the longer yardage is within range. This Dubawi colt is around 7/2 for the Epsom Derby and we all know this race has probably been the best Derby Trial in recent times – a win here will see his price for Epsom next month shorten further. He landed the Dewhurst over 7f very easily last October and even though those looking to take him on will cling to the trip there isn’t much evidence to suggest he won’t get it, with her dam – Dar Re Mi having won over 1m4f too! He’ll have some decent oppo though and the O’Brien-trained Japan is one of those. This well-bred colt has won his last two in good fashion and the vibes coming out of the Ballydoyle camp are that he’s another useful one – his Derby price of around 13/2 backs this up despite having only won at Group Two level so far. Of the rest, Telecaster was a good winner at Windsor last time out and is well thought of, but this is a big step up in grade. Surfman also won as he liked last time but at 1/8 was entitled to. He’s 12/1 for the Derby and looks set to run a big race too, but is still rated 25lbs below the selection. Godolphin’s Line Of Duty is the second highest-rated in the field and is a proven Group One winner that took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last November. However, I’m happy to stick with Frankie here and the Gosden team, who have won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this race, for their unbeaten colt to live up to his name and be ‘Too Darn Hot’ again.

3.35 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

14/14 – Rated between 96-105
13/14 – Carried 8-7 or more in weight
13/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
12/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
10/14 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/14 – Placed last time out
7/14 – Aged 4 years-old
3/14 – Winning favourite (1 joint, 1 co)
1/14 – Won last time out

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 14 winners rated between 96 and 105 then of the 18 runners there are actually only six that qualify – HORTZADAR, WHAT’S THE STORY, TRICORN, BERINGER, ESCOBAR and PLUTONIAN. Drawn in single figures is another key trend with 10 of the last 14 winners coming between stalls 1-9. Of the six mentioned three are left – BERINGER, ESCOBAR and PLUTONIAN. Therefore, if the prices allow it could pay to have all three on your side. Beringer looks likely to go off the shortest price of that trio. This Alan King 4 year-old won well at HQ last time out and is only 3lbs higher for that. Andrea Atzeni has been riding him the last twice and he seems to be more at home on the quicker ground that he’s likely to get this week. The O’Meara-trained Escobar is a regular in these big field handicaps and two recent runs last month should have him cherry-ripe for this and is down three pounds from his first run of the season. Finally, Plutonian was a fine fifth at Newbury last time out on his first run for 5 months. He stays further than this 1m trip and despite having top-weight in the race that is for a reason as he’s the highest-rated in the field.

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DAY THREE, Friday, 17th May 2019


1.50 – Langleys Solicitors EBF Stallions Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

13/14 – Had won over 5f before
13/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
12/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Won last time out
11/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Winners from stall 9
6/14 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 8 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 11 winners

TQ VERDICT: Tricky 2 year-old fillies contest to get going here. A lot of lightly-raced sorts on show so probably not a race to get too heavily involved in. 13 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 5 weeks, while the Richard Fahey and Michael Bell yard have won 4 of the last 11 runnings between them. No Bell runners but Fahey has two running – Baileys In Bloom & Mighty Spirit. Both made pleasing debuts and certainly look ones for the shortlist. It’s not been too bad a race for the market leaders either with 6 of the last 14 favourites winning and 10 of the last 14 placed – Companion, Lady Fanditha, Separate, Fleeting Princess and Great Dame are the ones that look likely to fight it out for the favourites berth.  It’s also very interesting that the horses from stall 9 have won a massive 50% of the last 14 runnings if this race. Therefore, it would be silly to not have an interest in RUBY WONDER (e/w). This David O’Meara runner has run two solid races at Beverley so far (2nd both times) – that experience will be a plus and even though she needs a bit more she’s still one for the shortlist with that draw stat on her side. The other key draw stat is that a massive 9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 6-11 – therefore, Infinite Grace, Lady Fanditha, Good Vibes, Ruby Wonder, Dr Simpson and Separate all have this as a big plus. Of that bunch GOOD VIBES (e/w) could be the one. The David Evans yard won this race in 2014 and their 2 year-old was a nice winner at Salisbury last time – keeping on well to in the closing stages to suggest the penny is dropping.

 

2.25 – Oaks Farm Stables Fillies´ Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV

13/13 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
13/13 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
13/13 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
11/13 – Had won over at least 7f before
9/13 – Placed 5th or better last time out
9/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Horses from stall 1 placed
7/13 – Raced at either Newmarket (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower, then Invitational and Sunday Star will have this to overcome. It’s also a race the punters generally get right with 4 winning favourites in the last 13 years, while ALL of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting. The Moore/Stoute runner – Clerisy is sure to be popular and won well last time out at HQ too. El Gumryah and Divinity are other recent winners that cases can be made for, while the Queen’s Magnetic Charm should go close having run well in Group races at the end of last season. The drop in grade will be a plus and seems to act well on the quicker ground. But, the call here is for the Mark Johnston yard to follow-up their win in the race last year – this time with a horse called NATALIE’S JOY. This 3 year-old won two of her three starts last season – including last time out in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury. The step up to a mile for the first time is a bit of an unknown but it’s expected to suit and she’ll be a lot stronger for another winter on her back.

 

3.00 – Matchbook Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV

15/15 – Didn’t win last time out
15/15 – Came from stall 7 or lower
14/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 5 or older
12/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/15 – Had run at York before
7/15 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
7/15 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/15 – Came from stall 4 or 7
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Stradivarius won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s £1million bonus winner – STRADIVARIUS – is back on the track as he sets his sights on landing the lucrative cash once again this season. He’s still only a 5 year-old so there could be more, to come, but it’s likely he’ll have a bit more opposition in this division this year. He got going in this race 12 months ago with an easy 3 length win over Desert Skyline, who lines up again here. He’s now won all his last five and even though he never wins with much to spare, there are never really many moments of doubt that he won’t win – you know what I mean! Frankie is riding and having won fresh and first time out for the last two seasons then the 209 break is not a worry. Yes, he has to give 3lbs away to all the rest, but I think he’ll still win. Of the rest, Godolphin’s Ispolini has some very good Meydan form to his name over this sort of trip and looks the favourites biggest threat. Jockey Ryan Moore has a good record in the race, with four recent wins – he rides Southern France for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has fair form to go well too. However, it’s interesting that his powerful trainer is yet to win this race! Mildenberger and Mootasadir are others to note, but they too might be playing for places behind the current champion.

 

3.35 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Had run over 1m2f before
14/17 – Didn’t win their last race
13/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
12/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 7 of the last 11 years)
9/17 – Finished third or better last time out
5/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Won by the favourite
3/17 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
11 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

TQ VERDICT: ALL of the last 17 winners here were aged 7 or younger – that’s not good news for the 8 year-olds Mythical Madness & Mistiroc. Not winning last time out is another plus, while 13 of the last 17 came from stalls 5 or higher. 4 year-olds also have a very good recent record – winning 7 of the last 11 runnings. With that in mind, BIG KITTEN, TOUGH REMEDY and LUCIUS TIBERIUS all might warrant support. Of that trio BIG KITTEN (e/w), who was a good second at Chelmsford last time behind Mythical Madness will be a lot fitter for that and can reverse the form. LUCIUS TIBERIUS (e/w) runs for the Godolphin yard and he’s the top-rated in the field. He’s also down 2lbs though from his last run (5th of 11) and is another that will strip fitter for that outing. Abe Lincoln and UAE Prince are others that are going to be very popular coming from the Jeremy Noseda and Roger Varian yards. The 6 year-old UAE Prince, especially looks the sort to get well-backed here and has run well at the track before. But, I suspect, there might also be little value in his price so I’m happy to stick with the already mentioned 4 year-olds.