- ASCOT: Four LIVE Races From The Berkshire Track…….
- NEWMARKET: Who’ll Shine In the Sun Chariot?……..
- REDCAR: It’s 2 Year-old Trophy Day……….
- LONGCHAMP: Arc Trends To Help Find The Winner………
- TQ UPDATE: Tara Too Good For Tim at 25/1…..
- PAUL JACOBS – Champion Tipster In RED-HOT form…….
So, that’s another September done-and-dusted! We ended the month on a high though with some more tasty winners last Saturday. Ten Sovereigns looks the latest O’Brien superstar to come off their conveyor belt after winning the Group One Middle Park Stakes for us, while we added to that win with Alemaratalyoum and Dakota Gold doing the business for the ‘free tips and trends’.
Onto today, and it’s a jam-packed weekend with LIVE ITV Racing from three venues – Redcar, Newmarket and Ascot. We’ve Seven races to take in across those tracks that include the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes, Cumberland Lodge, Challenge Cup and the Two Year-old Trophy.
Then on Sunday the top-class action continues as it’s Arc Day over in France at Longchamp. We’ll have all the key trends and our thoughts on the big race too.
So, another top day to look forward to and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!
Have a Great Weekend!
This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Tim On Top With 25/1 Tara……..
Another decent time of it over the last week or so – you can see a taster of some of the highlights below – but after a 25/1 success at Worcester at the end of September the Tim Vaughan camp get a special mention. The horse in question was Tara Mac, who put up a dominant display to get the job done. Yes, Tim told us the horse would need a career-best on these terms, but he also told us the horse was in good order and were hopeful of a much better run than last time. With the overall form of the yard very good at the moment and with the jumps actions hotting up by the day then we’ll be looking out for anything they are running in the coming weeks.
Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………
“Canton Prince – Acts well on most ground so no issues on that score. A nice horse that has won 3 of his 11 starts and finished in the top two in five of starts. Returns from a long break and will need to be on his game to give 12-0 away. But has been working well enough at home and Johnson rides. Can go well and a horse to follow this season.”
1st 13/2 Tim Vaughan
“Trisxter – Looks a poor race so that must give us a chance. Is a horse that is better than what he’s shown to date on the track but should like the drop in grade too. Dickie rides and the horse seems well after 6 months off the track. Trip and ground are fine too so hopeful of a nice run.”
1st 5/2 Tim Vaughan
“Space Talk – Consistent sort that has been knocking at the door of late -James Doyle a top jockey booking and the horse remains in good order at home. Should be more to come from her and deserves to get off the mark. Each-way.”
1st 6/1 Harry Dunlop
“Purple Rock – Might be a tough ask up in grade here but the horse is well and will enjoy this trip and ground. Had 5 runs for us now and has not been beaten far each time, despite not winning. Looks an open contest but we know he stays so could sneak into the frame if the race falls apart in the closing stages. Small e/w” 2nd 12/1 Gay Kelleway
“Carnwennan – Is an improving stayer – this is only his fifth run – and will turn into a very nice horse in time. He will love this track, although I do have a minor query about the ground. He should still run well.” 1st 4/1 Charlie Fellowes
“Outrage- Open looking race and a poor draw but as a hold-up horse that should make less of a difference – needs to break a bit better than he has been.” 2nd 16/1 Daniel Kubler
“Albert Boy – Going great guns at the moment – finished second the last twice, including runner-up here two starts ago. Up 3lbs from his last run but we offset that and a bit more with Theo’s 5lb claim. Won’t be easy with topweight and 9-11 to carry but the horse is in great form and looks one of our better chances on the day – well in himself and should be going close.” 3rd 5/1 Scott Dixon
“Good Luck Charm – Badly drawn (12) but, having said that, is probably better handicapped on the all weather than he is on grass which hopefully will give him a stronger chance. CD winner here too so we know the track is fine. “ 3rd 20/1 Gary Moore
“Looking For Carl – Ran well over 1m4f last time when second here – we are trying him up to 2m this time as we think he’ll stay the trip. If he does then looks to have a solid each-way chance with Jim Crowley booked to ride.” 1st 6/1 Harry Dunlop
“Peral Noir – One of two in the race for us – Pearl has a bit to prove after running down the field here over CD last time out, but has been in great form at home. Was a bit too free that day so hopefully he can save a bit more for the finish. Down a pound and Theo remains in the saddle to take 5lbs off. Drawn well in 2 so that helps. Needs to bounce back but last win came off a 2lb higher mark (May 18) so weighted to go well and – as I say – in good heart at home. Looks a nice each-way bet to me.” 2nd 22/1 Scott Dixon
“Crosse Fire – Is at his best over 6f these days and handles a tight left-handed course well. Ground could of been softer though. Very capable in a race like this but not an easy horse to catch right.” 3rd 10/1 Scott Dixon
“Gerry The Glover – Disappointed us last time at Lingfield but needs to learn to settle better in his race – hence why the headgear is back on here. Looks a competitive race for the grade but this is our local track and has gone well here in the past. Rossa rides again and claims a handy 3lbs – might be a tough ask as we’d like to see more on the track but hoping the cheekpieces help and small each-way.” 2nd 16/1 Lee Carter
“Lord Clenaghcastle – Course winner so no track issues and the drop back to 7f will help after getting a bit tired over a mile last time at Brighton. Same mark as last time so needs to bounce back from that last run, while his last win came off 2lbs lower. Seems better for a few months off though so in an open race we are hoping the return to this track will help bring. Small each-way.” 1st 16/1 Gary Moore
“Sing Out Loud – Been running in better races than this of late so the drop in grade is a plus. First run here but handles Brighton and Goodwood so can’t see the track being a problem. The drop in trip should also help us and only 3lbs higher than last win. 8 runners so looks a nice each-way option.” 2nd 17/2 Gary Moore
“Case Key – Consistent grey that ran a solid third last time out at Yarmouth. Same mark but we’ve a 5lb claimer on this time to help. Conditions are fine and the horse is taking his racing well – if running his race then should be in the mix again. Each-way.” 1st 13/2 Mick Appleby
“Risk And Co – Had one run last season when fourth at Fakenham when he slightly disappointed us – but he found the track didn’t suit him and we probably got our tactics wrong too. He’s in good form after his summer off and should go well here, although it looks quite a warm race.” 3rd 16/1 Jamie Snowden
“Tara Mac – Returns after a month or so off and needs to bounce-back from her last run when last of 5 at Stratford. Down a few pounds and down in trip here help but last win still came off a 5lb lower mark so more is needed. On a plus, the horse is well at home and conditions are fine, plus overall the horses seem to be running better so that gives us hope. Small place claims based on her 5 length win at Fontwell in May – would still require a career-best here off this mark – but in good order so hopeful of a much better run here today.” 1st 25/1 Tim Vaughan
Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!
Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!
Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!
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ASCOT: Four LIVE Races From the Berkshire Track
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)
1.50 – Duke Of Edinburgh’s Award Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4
14/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Won over 5f before
13/14 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated 101 or higher
11/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Winning favourites
Just Glamorous (33/1) won the race in 2017
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
TQ VERDICT: Just Glamorous took this race 12 months ago at 33/1 so can’t be ruled out despite a string of poor runs this season. The Bryan Smart camp have also done well in the race in recent years – winning it in 2009, 2010 and 2011 – so their MYTHMAKER (e/w) – looks interesting and can go well. This 6 year-old was a fine second in the Beverley Bullet last time out to the classy Take Cover so comes here in fine fettle. He stays further than this 5f trip which will help on the stiff Ascot track and should be finishing off the race better than most. A Momentofmadness won well last time out and is another to note, while he was also a fair fifth in the race last year. Judicial is a classy sort but needs to bounce back from some below-par runs of late. The drop in grade should help on that score though. He was beaten by Mr Lupton last time in a Group Three at Newbury so has a bit of ground to make up with that Richard Fahey runner too. The quicker ground should see them finish a lot closer this time while it’s worth noting from two runs at Ascot Mr Lupton has only managed 8th and 9th. The old boy Muthmir should be in the mix but is a horse that is hard to win with these days – just 1 success from last 10 – so might have to settle for a place again. So, the other one I like here is SPRING LOADED. This 6 year-old was a nice winner over course and distance back in July and hasn’t been disgraced since in decent handicaps – not been beaten far over 6f. The drop back to 5f will help and he also gets weight from most of the principles mentioned. Adam Kirby, who rode him to his last win, is back in the saddle too.
2.25 – Stella Artois Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4
16/16 – Finished fourth or better last time out
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Won at Listed or better class before
11/16 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
10/16 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
10/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/16 – Favourites to win
6/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/16 – Trained by Marcus Tregoning
2/16 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
9 of the last 10 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Danehill Kodiac (8/1) won the race in 2007
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
TQ VERDICT: Laraaib sets a fair standard here and if running to the form that saw him run Poet’s Word to just over 2 lengths back in May at Sandown then he’d be hard to beat. However, he’s lost his way a bit since then and it’s interesting that connections are now reaching for the blinkers. He’s a course winner so that helps but is also yet to win beyond 1m2f so that’s another concern for me. Grey Britain and Blakeney Point were both good winners last time out, but this will be harder on these terms. FIRST ELEVEN is the one that gets the nod though. He’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field and looks to have more in the locker. This 3 year-old gets weight from the older horses and the way he powered clear over this trip last time caught the eye. More is needed but he’s certainly a big player from the powerful John Gosden camp. The other 3 year-old in the race to get weight is Communique and this Mark Johnston runner is actually rated 5lbs higher than First Eleven. He’s in form too after wins at Newbury and Newmarket, while he’s a typically tough Johnston sort that has proved hard to pass in recent races and it might be more of the same here. However, his only run at Ascot saw him finish down the field in the King George V Stakes here in June. He’s a horse that’s had a staggering 12 races this season and with those last two wins looking big efforts I just wonder if they will take their toll. With that in mind, I’m happy to stick with FIRST ELEVEN, who is proven at the track and has been raced less this season so might just be the fresher of the pair.
3.00 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4
10 previous runnings
10/10 – Won over 6f previously
10/10 – Officially rated 100 or higher
9/10 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/10 – Won 4 or more times previously
8/10 – Had run within the last 30 days
7/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/10 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/10 – Won their previous race
3/10 – Returned a double-figure price
3/10 – Favourites to win
2/10 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 7 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Blue Point (Evs) won the race in 2017
TQ VERDICT: A decent race in prospect here with some talented sprinters on show. Dream Of Dreams is a consistent sort that can be expected to be in the mis again. He’s finished in the top three in his last three starts and should be in the mix. He stays further than this 6f trip so that’s a help but the fact he’s not won this season does put me off him. RAVEN’S LADY (e/w) is in rude health after two recent wins. She’s only just got the job done both times so it’s hard to know if she’s got more to come. She’s had time to get over her recent run (41 days) and is certainly one for the shortlist – jockey Gerald Mosse is 2-from-2 on her and remains in the saddle. The consistent Projection and Laugh A Minute are others that a case can be made for, while Gifted Master is a proven course and distance winner that off a mark of 115 is the highest-rated in the field. However, LIMATO beat him just over 4 lengths last time at HQ and I’ll take it to be more of the same here. Henry Candy’s 6 year-old has found a new lease of life of late – winning his last two over this trip – and until that form relents looks the clear one to beat.
3.35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/16 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
13/16 – Won over 7f previously
11/16 – Had raced within the last 30 days
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Raced at Ascot previously
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/16 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/16 – Raced at Ayr last time out
4/16 – Favourites to win
2/16 – Traind by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Won their previous race
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 10 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 10 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Accidental Agent (16/1) won the race in 2017
TQ VERDICT: 18 runners here but hopefully the trends will be a help. 14 of the last 16 winners had won between 2-4 times before, while 13 of the last 16 winners had winning form over this 7f trip. Add in that 11 of the last 16 winners raced in the last 30 days, plus were aged 3 or 4 years-old and had run at Ascot in the past then there a lot to go on. 7 of the last 10 winners have also come from stalls 8-13 (inc) so horses Cape Byron, Raydiance, Gilgamesh, Vale Of Kent, Good Effort and Cardsharp will be hoping to uphold that stat. Top-weight Flaming Spear was only 14th in the race last year so despite being well-touted in the betting needs to improve on that. He’s also rated 3lbs higher this time and it won’t be easy with 9st 10lbs to carry. Connections do have a 5lb claimer on to help with his weight though and the Dean Ivory yard know what’s required to win this race – landing the prize in 2016. He’s a player but does fall down on a fair few of the main trends and looks little value in a race of this nature. Cape Byron ticks a lot of boxes and was a decent second over course and distance last time out. He’s a course winner and since being gelded is yet to be out of the top three from three starts. His weight (9st 3lbs) looks the only real trend negative. RIPP ORF ticks a lot of boxes too. His form at Ascot catches the eye (1-3-1), while he’s a very consistent sort that’s only finished out of the top four once from 17 starts. Expect to see him late on as he likes to come with a strong finish, but it will be a shock if he’s not involved. Raising Sands, Il Primo Sole and Escobar are others to note, but the other one that I like here is GILGAMESH. This 4 year-old gets in with just 8st 11lbs and with draw 10 giving him options he has most of the main stats in his corner. A recent second over course and distance means he heads here in form and also had my other fancy – Ripp Orf – back in fourth that day. The weights suggest both are evenly-matched again but if there is one small niggle it’s his previous track form – 7-7-11 – if he can overcome that then he looks to have a lot going for him.
NEWMARKET: Who’ll Shine In The Sun Chariot?……………..
2.05 – British EBF Breeders´ Fillies´ Series Sprint Handicap Cl2 6f ITV4
Just 2 previous running
Trainer Malcolm Saunders won the race in 2017
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2016
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Hughie Morrison has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
TQ VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden has a decent 21% record with his 3 year-olds here so his PERFECTION gets the nod in a race that’s only been run twice before. Frankie Dettori rides and after an easy win at Yarmouth last time out heads into the race in tip-top form. He’s won over the course too (7f) so that’s a plus and so far is 1-from-1 over this 6f trip. The Ralph Beckett yard are in good order at the moment so their Poyle Charlotte is interesting with a very light weight. Lady Freyja, Mayleaf Shine and Rock On Baileys are others to note, but the main danger to the selection looks to be Fille De Reve. This 3 year-old has won her last two in decent fashion and is also unbeaten (2-from-2) over this trip. Jamie Spencer rode her to won of those wins and returns to the saddle, but with Perfection having tasted the track before that experience just edges it for me.
3.15 – Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/14 – Previous Group winners
12/14 – Won between 3-5 times before
11/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Rated between 113 and 119
9/14 – Previous Group One winners
7/14 – Aged 3 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/14 – French-trained winners
5/14 – Raced at Deauville last time out
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 4 of the last 12 runnings
Roly Poly (4/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2
TQ VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Group One. We’ve got the 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – returning to the scene of her Classic win in May but she’s failed to build on that success and has a bit to prove for me. Veracious looks to be improving and with Frankie riding looks one for the short list too, while the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp send over three – Clemmie, Happily and I Can Fly. All three are rated within a pound of each other so jockey bookings will give us more clues here., but of the trio I Can Fly was a good winner last time out at Leopardstown and it could be that the penny is starting to drop with her. Wind Chimes is the highest-rated in the field (120) and comes over from the Andre Fabre camp in France. She was a close second in the Group One Prix du Moulin last time out so commands respect but is yet to record a win at the highest level. With that in mind, I’d prefer to stick with the tough and consistent LAURENS to win her fifth Group One here. She was runner-up in the 1,000 Guineas so the track is fine, and her only blot came when trying 1mf in the Yorkshire Oaks earlier this season. She since bounced back to win the Matron Stakes over a mile in Ireland and that form makes her the one to beat. She’s only finished out of the first two once from 9 starts and stays further than this mile trip which will be a huge help in the closing stages. Veracious looks best of the rest.
REDCAR: It’s 2 Year-old Trophy Day…………………………..
Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)
2.45 – Racing UK Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
13/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
10/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Foaled in March or later
8/16 – Had won over 6f before
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Filly winners
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/16 – Trained by Stan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: Trainer Tim Easterby has a fair record in this race – winning it twice in the last 16 years and he looks to have another solid chance this year with a horse called VINTAGE BRUT. This juvenile is rated 101 and the joint-highest in the field and heads here off the back of a good second at Ayr last time out. Any rain would be a help, but he’s won on good ground in the past. The cheekpieces are an interesting addition here too, while draw 20 can hopefully see him bag the rail. Of the rest, Swissterious is the other 101-rated horse in the field so commands respect. He ran well for much of the way over 7f in the Group Three Acomb Stakes but backed that up when down to this 6f trip last time at Doncaster. Draw 18 looks a plus and he’s sure to be involved. Red Balloons, Rathbone and Strict Tempo are others to note, while the Richard Hannon camp often do well in these races so their BEAT LE BON (e/w), who has only had two career runs might run better now dropped to 6f. He’s been running ok over further just got tired in the closing stages over a mile last time when taking a hold. The drop back to 6f will help on that score and should have more to come with only two career runs.
LONGCHAMP: Can Enable Win Another Arc?………………….
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends
15/16 – Had won a Group 1 race before
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/16 – Had won at least 5 times before
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Aged 3 years-old
10/16 – Had run at Longchamp before
9/16 – Had won at Longchamp previously
8/16 – Won by a French-based yard
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
7/16 – Female winners
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by a UK-based yard
2/16 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 7 times in all)
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 9 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 2 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 24 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 5 times
THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend