Bet365 Gold Cup Trends and Free Tips

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at TQ we’ve got all the stats ahead of the 2019 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 28th.

 

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Had raced in the last 56 days
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
13/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
13/16 – Had won over 3m or further before
12/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had raced in the last 25 days
9/16 – Officially rated 140 or higher
9/16 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
8/16 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/16 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
0/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 16 runnings (40%)
12 of the last 16 (75%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

TQ VERDICT: The Bet365 Gold Cup has been a graveyard race for favourite backers in recent years, with the last winning market leader coming in 2000. It’s also been a bad race for horses coming off a break as ALL of the last 16 winners took this having raced within the last 56 days – not good news for two of the popular ones in the betting – Talkischeap, who last raced 63 days ago, and Present Man, who was in action 98 days ago. Horses aged 9 or younger have done best too – winning 12 of the last 16 so that might be deemed a negative for the 10 year-olds – Joe Farrell, Vyta Du Roc, The Young Master, who won this race in 2016 – while we’ve also two 11 year-olds in Rathlin Rose and Le Reve. With 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 11-5 or less his means the top-weight Beware The Bear and Yala Enki have this stat to overcome, while 23 of the last 28 winners actually carried less than 11st – this further rules out Rock The Kasbah, who was runner-up in the race 12 months ago and sixth in 2017. Last year’s winner – STEP BACK (e/w) – does, however, tick all the mentioned trends and can go well again. This 9 year-old gets in with 10st 11lbs and despite being rated 10lbs higher than last year does seem to run well at Sandown (1st and 3rd). Yes, he was pulled up in the National, but this shorter trip will help and should be much better for the run as it came after 3 months out. Nico De Boinville gets on well with him too and I think he’s got a good chance of becoming the first horse since Topsham Bay (1992-93) to win this race in back-to-back seasons. The only slight niggle is that he’s hovering around the favourites berth and this race hasn’t been the kindest to market leaders recently. Of the rest, 8 year-olds have done well in the race of late, so ROLLING DYLAN (e/w), PRIME VENTURE (e/w) and CAPTAIN CHAOS (e/w) are others to consider at the bigger prices. Of that trio, Rolling Dylan has run well over this sort of trip in the past and with just 10-9 will be racing with his lightest weight since going chasing. While the Nicholls-trained Give Me A Copper is sure to be popular with just 10-9 in weight. He’s lightly-raced with just 4 runs over fences and I’ve already mentioned the good record of the yard in this race. It wouldn’t surprise me in the money came for him in the build-up, but after falling last time out he’s got to bounce back and weakened over 3m here at Sandown back in February over 3m – yes, he’s got 16lbs less in weight to carry but he’s also got another 5 furlongs to go this time. Just A Sting will have Sean Bowen riding and he’s actually won two of the last three runnings of this race, while course winner Ballydine also gets in with very light weights and if putting recent poor runs behind them can’t be dismissed.