Betfair Chase Trends and Free Tips

Betfair Chase Trends and Free Tips

Staged at Haydock Park racecourse the Betfair Chase Registered as the Lancashire Chase) is a Grade One race and is run over a slightly longer trip (3m1f). The contest is a fairly new one, being first run in 2005 and takes place in November each season.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has made the race his own, winning the decent prize 6 times in the last 11 years, including four times with Kauto Star, while last year we saw the popular grey Bristol De Mai land the pot.

Here at TQ we are on hand with all the key stats ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday November 24th.

 

Recent Betfair Chase Winners

2016 – CUE CARD (15/8 fav)
2015 – CUE CARD (7/4)
2014 – SILVINIACO CONTI (10/3)
2013 – CUE CARD (9/1)
2012 – SILVINIACO CONTI (7/4)
2011 – KAUTO STAR (6/1)
2010 – IMPERIAL COMMANDER (10/11 fav)
2009 – KAUTO STAR (4/6 fav)
2008 – SNOOPY LOOPY (33/1)
2007 – KAUTO STAR (4/5 fav)
2006 – KAUTO STAR (11/10 fav)
2005 – KINGSCLIFF (8/1)

Key Betfair Chase Betting Trends

12 Previous runnings
10/12 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
10/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
9/12 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (6) bred horse
9/12 – Placed in the top three in their last race
9/12 – Won a Grade One chase previously
8/12 – Raced at Haydock previously
8/12 – Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/12 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/12 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (inc 3 of the last 4)
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
4/12 – Won their latest race
The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 6/1
Cue Card has won the race in 2013, 2015 & 2016
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012

 

TQ VERDICT: Only five runners, but what the Betfair Chase field lacks in quantity it certainly makes up for in quality! The jumps race of the campaign so far that sees last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup first and second in Native River and Might Bite do battle again, while the 2016 King George hero – Thistlecrack – is also making his return. Add in the current champ in Bristol De Mai, that destroyed a good field in this race last season – oh, and is also unbeaten (3-from-3) at the track over fences, plus the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux, then it’s a ‘must-see’ race for all jump fans. Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite looks likely to go off favourite and it’s easy to see why – he’ll be looking to give the champion trainer his first success in this race. He’s a class act and despite getting beaten in the Gold Cup he bounced back to land the Betway Bowl at Aintree last time out and looks set for another big season. However, he’s no real value here, especially as he’s actually rated 4lbs inferior to NATIVE RIVER – the horse that beat him 4 ½ lengths in the Gold Cup. If this turns into a slog then the Tizzard-trained Native River could have Might Bite’s measure again – he stays further than this and could easily grind things out from the front with Bristol De Mai. I also suspect that the Henderson team will not want to give Might Bite too hard a race if things develop into a grind or a battle. Plus, it’s hard to ignore the chance of Bristol De Mai – after all, he’s the current champ and he’s yet to lose a race over fences here at Haydock (3 runs) – he simply loves it here! Yes, he will probably need the ground to get a bit softer and he’s also rated 11lbs lower than Native River and 7lbs inferior to Might Bite, but his ‘horses-for-courses’ profile here makes him hard to rule out – if any rain comes his chance will greatly increase. Tizzard also introduces his 2016 King George winner – Thistlecrack – to the track after a troubled time off, but despite having the form to take this I’d rather take a watching brief to see if he retains his old ability. Clan Des Obeaux makes up the five and even though it would be a shock if he’s good enough in a field like this, he’s only 6 years-old so has time on his side and the Nicholls camp have a fantastic record in the race – winning it six times from 13 runnings. On a plus, he’s a course winner and could easily improve for the step up in trip but does have just over 10 lengths to find with Might Bite based on their Aintree runs in the Betway Bowl back in April. All-in-all a fascinating race that is not to be missed. Might Bite is the one to beat, but with Native River having already taken his scalp this year, plus the course specialist – Bristol De Mai – on our side then I’m happy to take on the Henderson horse at the short price.