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20th October 2020

2019 December (Caspian Caviar) Gold Cup Betting Trends & Tips

The December Gold Cup has been runs as the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup since 2014 and is run over 2m5f at Cheltenham’s December Meeting each season around the middle of the month.

In recent years Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin has won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2012, & 2018 with Frodon. Nicky Henderson is another trainer to look out for - having won the race three times since 2002.

It’s generally, been a good contest for the bookmakers with just one winning favourite in the last 17 runnings (last winning market leader was in 1996), but that’s not to say those at the head of the market don’t do well as 11 of the last 17 winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting.

Here at TQ we take a look back at recent winners and give you all the trends that matter ahead of the 2019 renewal – this year run on December 14th.


Recent December (Caspian Caviar) Cup Winners

2018 – Frodon (7/1)
2017 – Guitar Pete (9/1)
2016 – Frodon (14/1)
2015 – Villiage Vic (8/1)
2014 – Niceonefrankie (16/1)
2013 – Double Ross (7/1)
2012 – Unioniste (15/2)
2011 – Quantitativeeasing (6/1)
2010 – Poquelin (16/1)
2009 – Poquelin (7/2 fav)
2008 – Abandoned
2007 – Tamarinbleu (22/1)
2006 – Exotic Dancer (8/1)
2005 – Sir Oj (16/1)
2004 – Monkerhostin (4/1)
2003 – Iris Royal (7/1)
2002 – Fondmort (5/1)
2001 – Abandoned
2000 – Go Roger Go (7/1)

December (Caspian Caviar) Gold Cup Betting Trends

17/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
13/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
12/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Officially rated 142 or higher
11/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – French bred
8/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
5/17 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1


TQ VERDICT: Super-competitive renewal, but having trained five winners of this race – including 12 months ago – then I’m happy to side with the Paul Nicholls pair of SECRET INVESTOR and BRELAN D’AS. The last-named ran a blinder in the BetVictor Gold Cup here last month (2nd) and despite being raised 5lbs for that should be cherry-ripe for this. He won on his third run back last season and that came around this time of the year as well. Soft ground, the trip and the track are clearly all fine and Barry Geraghty sticks with him in the saddle too. Secret Investor is the other Nicholls runner and he ran well in a Grade Two at Down Royal last time out (2nd). He’s only had 6 runs over fences, but has finished in the top two in five of those. Yes, his lack of experience at the track (having first run) is a small worry, but he’s a solid jumper and no reason to think Cheltenham won’t suit. With only 6 career runs over fences he should have more in the locker too – Harry Cobden rides. Of the rest, Riders OntheStorm has been popular all week in the betting, but looks little value now, while top-weight Cepage is another to note being the top-rated in the field, but it won’t be easy lumping 11-12 round. At those at bigger prices, I think Good Man Pat can go well, plus Keeper Hill and Generous Day will be full of confidence after good wins last time out, albeit in slightly lesser races. Willie Mullins has a rare runner in the race – Robin Des Foret – but the final one that might be worth having a small interest in is LALOR (e/w). Yes, he’s not quite gone onto fulfil his potential he promised but the step up to 2m4f could be interesting and he’s got fair form here at Cheltenham – 3 runs, 1 win and a second. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time, which might help settle him better – we’ll see, but be could be the interesting one in the field.






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