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21st October 2020

2020 Cesarewitch Handicap Free Tips and Trends (Sat 10th Oct)

Run over 2m2f on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course the Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the most popular betting races of the season. Along with the Cambridgeshire Handicap, that is run 2-3 weeks earlier, the two races are generally known as the Autumn Double and both contests are always ultra-competitive.

We take a look at the best stats ahead of the 2020 renewal that will hopefully allow you to whittle down the big field - this year run on Saturday 10th October. Did you know 14 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting, while we’ve seen just three winning favourites since 1993?

 

Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners

2019 – Stratum (25/1)
2018 - Low Sun (10/1)
2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
2011 – Never Can Tell (25/1)
2010 – Aaim To Prosper (16/1)
2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
2008 – Caracciola (50/1)
2007 – Leg Spinner (14/1)
2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (10/1)
2004 – Contact Dancer (16/1)
2003 – Landing Light (12/1)
2002 – Miss Fara (12/1)

Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 4 or older
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
15/18 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/18 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/18 – Had run at the track before
9/18 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/18 – Won by a NH trainer
8/18 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/18 – Placed favourites
4/18 – Winning mares
3/18 – Winners from stall 1
3/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2 winners)
2/18 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 22/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of trends to hopefully narrow down the 35 runners here in the Cesarewitch Handicap. With 17 of the last 18 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds – Coltrane and Arthurian Fable – have this is overcome. 14 of the last 18 winners also carried 9-2 or less, so that would rule out the top nine on the card – including the likes of Summer Moon, Rock Eagle, Cleonte and Not So Sleepy. 12 of the last 18 winners were also aged 5 or older and finished fourth or better in their last race. Of those not already ruled out – this would be a plus for WHIRLING DERVISH, JUKEBOX JIVE, LYNWOOD GOLD, SMART CHAMPION, AUTHOR’S DREAM, TRUE DESTINY, LEONCAVALLO, LEVER DU SOLEIL and LIGHTLY SQUEEZED. However, it’s also a race the Willie Mullins yard have won for the last two years, so their GREAT WHITE SHARK (e/w) will be popular and gets in off a light 8st 6lbs – Jason Watson, who teamed-up with Mullins in this race last year is also a plus in the saddle and he heads here fit and well after a win over hurdles at Galway at the end of July. We know he stays and acts on the ground so points to another a big run. Another top Irish trainer – Dermot Weld – has a runner too – DALTON HIGHWAY (e/w) – and he’s booked Tom Marquand to ride. He probably found the 1m6f a tad on the sharp side last time out but has past form that ties him in closely with the Mullins horse, while the longer trip and softer ground are ideal. Others to consider are Leoncavallo, who bolted-up at Haydock over 1m6f last time out and won over 2m5f the time before over fences. He’s a versatile sort that is in great heart at the moment. Mondain and True Destiny can go well too, but the other pick is FUTURE INVESTMENT (e/w). This Ralph Beckett runner was a good winner over 2m at Chester two runs back but probably found the drop back to 1m6f against him last time at Haydock. He’d probably want the ground to dry out a tiny bit, but has a consistent profile from his 10 runs (7 top three finishes) and could have more to offer now upped in trip.

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