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25th October 2020

2020 Champion Chase Free Tips and Trends

Staged at the Cheltenham Festival each March the Grade One Queen Mother Champion Chase is run over 2m, with 12 fences to tackle. This is where TQ give you the key Champion Chase trends to help you find the winner based on past statistics – use these trends to whittle down the 2020 Champion Chase runners and find the best past winning profile.

The betting for the 2020 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase sees last season’s winner of this race – Altior - heading the market as he bids to give trainer Nicky Henderson his seventh win in the race and his six since 2012.

Altior, who won the Champion Chase last year became the first horse to successfully defend his title since Master Minded in 2008 and 09 – if running in 2020 will now be hoping to become the first horse to win three Champion Chases in a row since Badsworth Boy (83-85).

Run as the featured race on the second day (Wednesday) of the festival the race was first run back in 1959 and given the ‘Queen Mother’ title in 1980 to celebrate the Queen mum’s 80th birthday.

We look back at recent winners and highlights the key trends to take into the 2020 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 11th March.

Recent Queen Mother Champion Chase Winners

2019 - ALTIOR (4/11 fav)
2018 - ALTIOR (Evs fav)
2017 – SPECIAL TIARA (11/1)
2016 – SPRINTER SACRE (5/1)
2015 – DODGING BULLETS (9/2)
2014 – SIRE DE GRUGY (11/4 fav)
2013 – SPRINTER SACRE (1/4 fav)
2012 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW (4/1)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (10/1)
2010 – BIG ZEB (10/1)
2009 – MASTER MINDED (4/11 fav)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (3/1)
2007 – VOY POR USTEDES (5/1)
2006 – NEWMILL (16/1)
2005 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (15/8 fav)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (7/4 fav)

Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting Trends

16/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
15/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
10/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – French bred
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
6/17 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
4/17 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out
4/17 – Had won the race before
3/17 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 9/2

Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

13 of the last 19 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
22 of the last 35 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
37 of the last 38 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16 of the last 18 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
17 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously

Champion Chase – 22 Year Trends

16/22 – British-trained winners
6/22 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) is yet to train the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 5 of the last 8 winners (won the race 6 times in total)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 5 of the last 20 winners
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Jessica Harrington (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 17 winners

 

TQ VERDICT: Arguably the race of the meeting! But let’s just hope the current champ – Altior – gets to run after his trainer Nicky Henderson has reported him lame on Sunday. They will work around the clock to get him ready, so we’ll have to see if they are successful. He probably would have been my pick had this setback not happen, but even if he does make the race this is not ideal preparation. The other the two main players are the new kids on the block in this division – Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi. It would be foolish for anyone to try and put anyone off any of these three and on all known form they’ve all got big chances. Altior is rated the highest still at 175, but Defi is not far behind on 170 and Chacun is 171 – let’s hope they are all jumping the last as one – something that will take us back to the 1994 renewal (for those that remember) when Viking Flagship, who won the race, Travado and Deep Sensation did just that! For me, Chacun probably has the best form in the book by beating Min by just under 4 lengths last time out in Ireland, and he also beat Defi by just over 4 lengths at Punchestown last May. But his lack of any runs here at Cheltenham has to be a negative in my eyes. I think, of the main three, he’s the one I’m going to rule out – based on having no runs at the track or the Festival. DEFI DU SEUIL, on the other hand is a Festival pro too – just like Altior. He won the JLT Novices’ Chase last season and also the Triumph Hurdle back in 2017. He’s also done nothing wrong this season in winning the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase, so heads into the race having won most of the main trial races for this. With some doubts now surrounding Altior I’m happy to stick with Defi - he ticks a lot of boxes. It will be a huge shock if any of these three isn’t winning, but of the rest the Nicholls pair of Politologue and Dynamite Dollars would probably be the ones to pick up the pieces if some of the main three ran below-par, while last season’s third, Sceau Royal, would be one for the place players – having finished in the top three in 10 of his 12 starts over fences.  

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