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25th November 2020

2020 Cotswold Chase Free Tips & Trends

Run at Cheltenham racecourse – normally in the third week of January at their Trials Meeting – the Cotswold Chase is run over a trip of 3m 1 ½ furlongs. The race is deemed as another Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, but maybe only in name as the last horse to land both races in the same season was Looks Like Trouble in 2000, while Master Oats took both prizes back in 1995.

Twelve months ago in 2019 we saw the Paul Nicholls-trained Frodon win the race under jockey Bryony Frost – that was the fifth win in the race for trainer Paul Nicholls. While it’s still been a terrible race for the favourite – with no winning market leader in the last 16 runnings.

Here at TQ we take a look back at past winners of the Cotswold Chase and give you all the stats that mater ahead of the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 25th January.

Cotswold Chase Past Winners

2019 - Frodon (9/4)
2018 - Definitly Red (7/1)
2017 – Many Clouds (8/1)
2016 – Smad Place (9/2)
2015 – Many Clouds (4/1)
2014 – The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013 - Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012 – Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011 – Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010 – Taranis (16/1)
2009 – Joe Lively (11/1)
2008 – Knowhere (16/1)
2007 – Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006 – See You Sometime (18/1)
2005 – Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004 – Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

Cotswold Chase Betting Trends

16/16 – Officially rated 151 or higher
15/16 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
14/16 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
13/16 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/16 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/16 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/16 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/16 – Priced 7/1 or less
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
7/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/16 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/16 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
0/16 – Favourites
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

TQ VERDICT: Another race that produced a Festival winner last year after Frodon landed the prize before going onto Ryanair Chase glory. The first thing to note ahead of this race is that it’s been a shocking one for the favourites in recent years – with no winning market leader winning in the last 16 years. This year, Santini and Bristol De Mai look likely to fight out the favourites berth. Santini was second in the RSA Chase here last March and with only 8 runs under rules still very lightly-raced. He’ll probably be pitched at the Gold Cup if running well here, but, for me, was hardly convincing at 1/3 on his return win at Sandown – winning by a head. Bristol De Mai is very useful on his day too, but as we all know he does seem to save his best for Haydock. He is, however, the top-rated in the field (170) and let’s not forget he was third in the Gold Cup last season here too – but with just 1 win from his last 8, he’s a horse that isn’t easy to catch right and has also been beaten in all three past runs at Cheltenham. De Rasher Counter was a nice winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) back in November but a lot more is needed now into graded company – he’s up 9lbs in the ratings. Top Ville Ben is good on his day too, but fell in the RSA Chase here last season. Course winner – Mister Whitaker could run a big race at nice price and should be a lot fitter for a recent fifth here – but will need to prove he’s as good over this longer 3m 1 1/2 f trip. So, I’ll be taking a chance on the Colin Tizzard-trained SLATE HOUSE (e/w) here. He’s got a big to find on the ratings, but has returned this season better than ever with winning three of his four starts and it might have been 4-from-4 had he not fallen when going well in the BetVictor Gold Cup here in November. He’s got winning form at the track and seems to have improved again since being stepped up in trip the last twice (2 wins). Soft ground is also fine, while the Tizzard yard won this race back in 2009 with a horse called Joe Lively.   

 

 

 

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