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31st October 2020

2020 Irish Derby Free Tips and Trends

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is a Group One contest run over 1m4f at the Curragh racecourse.

In recent years the race has been dominated by one trainer – Aidan O’Brien, who has landed the lucrative pot a staggering 13 times since 1997, including 10 of the last 12 renewals, and you can expect the Ballydoyle handler to be mob-handed once again.

He also won the race in 2019 with 33/1 shot Sovereign so don’t be afraid to back any of O’Brien’s bigger-priced runners.

Did you know, jockey Ryan Moore is yet to win the Irish Derby?

We take a look back at past winners, plus give you all the key stats ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year run on Saturday 27th June.

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard
15/17 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/17 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won a Group race before
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
11/17 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
10/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 13 times in total)
7/17 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/17 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has made this race his own in recent times – winning it a staggering 13 times. He’s - once again – mob-handed for this Saturday’s race, with no fewer than 6 of the 15 runners – ARTHUR’S KINGDOM, DAWN PATROL, IBERIA, ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, SANTIAGO and TIGER MOTH. He’s also won this race with some big-priced runners in the past so it’s hard to rule out any of the six – including 12 months ago when his Sovereign beat his recent Epsom Derby winner by 6 lengths at 33/1! Of his runners, Arthur’s Kingdom was an excellent runner-up in the King Edward VI Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and can go well, but their main hope looks to be SANTIAGO, who landed the Queen’s Vase at Ascot last week. Yes, that came over 1m6f but that proves he stays this 1m4f well and that proven stamina can be used to full use. Seamie Hefferman takes over in the saddle from Ryan Moore, but the O’Brien jockey bookings still suggest this is their main player. He’s clearly a fast-improving middle-distance performer and the form looks solid with the runner-up – Berkshire Rocco – having previously run well in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Of the rest, Joseph O’Brien has Crossfirehurricane in the race and has done nothing wrong in winning all four of his starts, including one here at the course. Iberia and Sherpa are others to consider and have both shown a good level of form, but the main danger to the pick can come from FISCAL RULES (e/w). This 3 year-old was last seen running well to be 5th in the Irish 2000 Guineas. This Jim Bolger horse looked a bit outpaced over that 1m trip so the step up to 1m4f here looks a good move. Breeding indicates he’ll be better over further and that run would have blown the cobwebs away.

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