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7th July 2020

2020 Northumberland Plate Free Tips and Trends

Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables, while sponsors John Smith’s have supported the race now since 2003.

We’ve seen three winning favourites in the last 8 years.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 27th June 2020.

 

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2019 – Who Dares Wins (12/1)
2018 - Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 -  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

17/18  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
17/18 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/18 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/18 – Aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
14/18 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/18 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/18 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 12 winners)
3/18 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/18 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 5)
1/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 14 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 8
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

TQ VERDICT: A big field of 20 head to post here. 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or younger so the likes of Magic Circle (8), Rainbow Dreamer (7), Cosmeli (7) & Denmead (7) have this stat to overcome. 15 of the last 17 winners also came from stalls 14 or lower, so more negatives for Rainbow Dreamer (15), Cosmeli (16), Caravan Of Hope (17), Anyonecanhaveitall (18), Collide (19) & Mukha Magic (20). The in-form Charlie Fellowes yard run Carnwennan, who also won the consolation of this race 12 months ago. This will be harder off a 9lb higher mark and is on a bit of a recovery mission having not won a race since (5 runs). So, despite the big field it’s actually not been a bad race for the market leader – 3 of the last 7 favourites have won. Therefore, the Roger Varian runner – AUSTRALIS – looks very interesting. There was a lot of money for this 4 year-old last time out and that proved right as he won well that day – beating another fancy here, Caravan Of Hope, by ½ a length. He seemed to win with more in-hand that day and travelled very well through the race to suggest there is a lot more to come. The longer trip should be fine and his AW record to date is good. The handicapper only raised him 5lbs for that win and in this better race gets in with only 8-2 to carry! Of the rest, the Mark Johnston runner – KING’S ADVICE (e/w) – is the other horse I’ll be playing. This 6 year-old ran well in a Listed contest at Doncaster last time out over 1m6f and prior to that wasn’t disgraced here in the G2 Sagaro Stakes. This ease in grade will help and should be a lot fitter than most after those recent outings. Reshoun, Collide and Glencadam Glory are others that can’t be totally ruled out.

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