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1st October 2020

2020 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 19th June)

 GOOD NEWS - The 2020 ROYAL ASCOT  fixture is on!!  But, Ascot officials have already stated it will be done behind closed doors.

On DAY FOUR at  ROYAL ASCOT we've seven more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Group One Commonwealth Cup, plus the Group Two Norfolk Stakes and Hardwicke Stakes.

Did you know that 15 of the last 17 Hardwicke Stakes winners were placed in their last race?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS QUOTES we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

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Note: Due to the current COVID-19 situation, Ascot have already stated that if their Royal Ascot Meeting gets the green light to race, it will be staged behind closed doors.

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2020 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends


1.15 - Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (3yo) 5f

TQ VERDICT: Another of the newer races introduced to the Royal Meeting this year so no past trends to go by. We do have some trainer stats though with Saeed Bin Suroor (16%) and Tim Easterby (33%) standing out at the track with their 3 year-olds. Bin Suroor runs City Walk, but it’s interesting neither jockey’s James Doyle or William Buick ride this one – Buick prefers the Simon Crisford-trained Will To Win, while Doyle gets the leg-up on Golden Dragon for trainer Stuart Williams. However, the Tim Easterby camp do look to have a big say in this race so it’s interesting they send their ART POWER down south to take his chance. This 3 year-old has gone into many a notebook and backed that up with a smooth win at Newcastle earlier this month. He dotted-up by 5 ½ lengths that day over 6f and even though this is a drop in trip he showed a lot of pace to make all that day, while the stiffer track here will help. He looks an exciting prospect and should be all the rage here in the opener on day four. Of the rest, the already mentioned Will To Win has shown a good level of form to suggest he’ll go well, while Never Dark, Dancin Inthestreet, Maystar and Band Practise are others that can fight it out for the places.

 

1.50 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2019 – Daahyeh (4/1 fav)
2018 – Main Edition (7/1)
2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)


Albany Stakes Key Trends

17/17 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
17/17 – Never raced at Ascot before
16/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
13/17 – Won their previous race
12/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
6/17 – Previous winner over 6f
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Sandown last time
The last 14 winners came from double-figure stalls
11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: With 11 of the last 14 winners of this race coming from stalls 11-15, then this is a fairly good stat. If this is to be repeated again this year then FOLLOW SUIT (11), UNDERTAKE (12), VALPOLICELLA (13) & DANDALLA (14) are the ones to focus on. In fact, the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall, so despite being fancied in the betting the Wesley Ward US runner – Flying Aletha (3) and the Aidan O’Brien entry Mother Earth (5) – look to have something to cling to if you want to take these ones on. Golden Melody, who won well on debut at Haydock, Willabell for Frankie and Gosden and Setarhe, who got off the mark at HQ earlier this month, are others with low draws. So, the two I’ll be playing here are DANDALLA (e/w) and UNDERTAKE (e/w). The former is from the Karl Burke yard and she was a nice winner on debut up at Newcastle a few weeks ago. She cleared away that day by 2 lengths and ran on strongly to suggest this extra furlong will suit. Undertake is one of two in the race for trainer Roger Varian (Setarhe other) and she also won on debut – this time at Lingfield. That came over 6f so this trip is fine and despite this being a step up in grade that win would have given her a lot of confidence, while connections clearly feel she’s up to running well in this sort of company. Finally, it’s a race both trainers Hannon and Channon have done well in over the years, so their Mahale (Channon) and Cirrus (Hannon) are others to note in the betting.

 

2.25 - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) 5f

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – A’Ali (5/1)
2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Key Trends

17/17 – Had at least 1 previous run
16/17 – Previous winners over 5f
15/17 – Had a RPR of 106+
15/17 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/17 – Won their previous race
13/17 – Foaled in March or April
10/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Windsor last time out
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 5 winners
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a good recent record in this race – winning it twice in the last 5 years – so his Ryan Moore-ridden Lipizzaner is one for the shortlist. He’s been runner-up in both his races to date so does have a few questions to answer but certainly can’t be overlooked with a slight experience edge over most. We’ve another US runner as trainer Wesley Ward sends over Golden Pal – they won this race in 2013 and 2018 – but, for me, it’s interesting that jockey – Frankie Dettori, who has ridden the winner four times in this race, picks to ride the Mark Johnston runner – EYE OF HEAVEN. Frankie often teams-up with Ward, so this does stand out. Frankie did, however, ride Eye Of Heaven to his debut win at HQ earlier this month. He did it nicely that day and looks a smart sprinter in the making – that run would have taught him a lot as he took a bit of time to get going, while the Johnston horses remain in good order. Of the others, Jo Jo Rabbit, Imperial Force and the Hannon pair – Ventura Tormenta and Cooperation – are worthy each-way players, but the other of interest is THE LIR JET, who caught the eye with a speedy win on debut at Yarmouth this month.

 

3.00 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

17/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
17/17 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
15/17 – Placed last time out
15/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
11/17 – Had run at Ascot before
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 9 winners)
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – Won their previous race
7/17 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
12 of the last 14 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 14 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: Defoe took this race 12 months ago and should make a bold bid to follow-up – he’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Maraahel, who win the race in 2006 and 2007. However, he’s not been able to win a race since taking this last year and returned in the Coronation Cup at HQ this month looking a bit flat. He’s on a bit of a recovery mission for me. Gosden and Dettori team-up with Fanny Logan and she made a pleasing reappearance at Haydock this month. She also gets the fillies’ allowance (3lbs) and with 8 top three finishes from 10 runs, should run her race. We’ve also got last year’s Epsom Derby hero – Anthony Van Dyck – in the race and he bounced back to form last time with a solid second in the Coronation Cup. He stayed on well that day and could be back to his old self, but I’d still be worried that he’s now 6 races without a win since that famous Derby success of 2019. So, of the main players that leaves me with ELARQAM. This Mark Johnston runner is rated only a pound lower to Anthony Van Dyck, while the way he finished his race over 1m2f last time suggests this step up to 1m4f is certainly worth a crack. It will be the first time he’s gone this far, so a few questions to answer, but – as mentioned – there was a lot to like about his last run over 1m2f to suggest it’s within range. Of those at bigger prices, the past CD winner MORANDO (e/w) could go well if tuned-up on his return run, while Johnston’s other runner – COMMUNIQUE (e/w) – should be a lot fitter for his recent fifth at HQ and could outrun his odds.

3.35 - The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

Commonwealth Cup Recent Winners


2019 – Advertise (8/1)
2018 - Eqtidaar (12/1)
2017 - Caravaggio (5/6 fav)
2016 - Quiet Reflection (7/4 fav)
2015 - Muhaarar (10/1)

Commonwealth Cup Trends

5/5 – Won over 6f before
5/5 – Drawn 8 or lower
4/5 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/5 – Won 3+ times before
4/5 – Had run at Ascot before
4/5 – Rated 117 or higher
2/5 – Winning favourite
2/5 – Came from stall 8
2/5 – Won last time out

TQ VERDICT: A bit more of an International feel to this race with runners from GB, Ireland, France and America. The unbeaten Roger Varian runner – Pierre Lapin – has been popular in the betting for a while and is clearly held in high regard, but looks little value to me. Wooded heads over from France and his form has a consistent look to it – he landed a Group Three last time out in France and should be spot on for this – James Doyle rides. Golden Horde and Millisle are others to consider, while Aidan O’Brien has an army running (4 runners), with Lope Y Fernandez looking their main hope with Ryan Moore riding. He was last seen running third in the Irish 2000 Guineas over a mile, but the drop back to 6f will suit and he was only 2 ½ lengths behind the useful Siskin that day – if this doesn’t come too soon, then looks to have a decent chance. But the two I like there are KIMARI and MUMS TIPPLE. The former is a Wesley Ward and Frankie Dettori runner so sure to be popular. She won around 3 months ago at Oaklawn Park and many will remember her being a close second in the Queen Mary here last season. That track form is a plus and she also gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance here. Mums Tipple was last seen running in the 2,000 Guineas over a mile – a trip that she clearly didn’t stay (finished last of 15). They also reported the track not suiting that day so the drop back to 6f and back at Ascot – a track he’s won at before – look worthy reasons to give him another chance. He’d won well at York and Ascot last season over this 6f trip and wasn’t disgraced in the G1 Middle Park (beaten only 4 ¾ lengths) last September and was also reported lame after that race. He’s certainly had excuses the last twice, so being the only proven CD winner in the field might be worth giving another chance to.

 

4.10 - Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m

Queen´s Vase Recent Winners

2019 – Dashing Willoughby (6/1)
2018 – Kew Gardens (10/3)
2017 – Stradivarius (11/2)
2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

15/17 – Had never raced at Ascot before
12/17 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
11/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
9/17 – Placed favourites
6/17 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/17 - Trained by Mark Johnston
4/17 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 13 runnings (4 wins)
13 of the last 14 winners came from a single-figure stall
6 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 7 or 8

TQ VERDICT: Another of the longer distance races at Royal Ascot and it’s a contest trainers O’Brien and Johnston have dominated in recent years – winning 11 of the last 17 between them! O’Brien has Santiago and Nobel Prize, but no runner for Johnston this year – he’s letting the rest have a chance! Andrew Balding, who won this last year, has two though – Berkshire Rocco and the Queen’s Punctuation – of the pair the former looks their better chance after running second last time at Lingfield in the Derby Trial. Godolphin’s Al Dabaran is a course winner over 7f here, but although a classy sort is stepping up significantly in trip here from 1m1f to 1m6f – connections clearly feel he’s capable of getting the distance, but I’d prefer to see it on the track first. Gosden has On Guard, but Frankie prefers to ride NOBEL PRIZE for O’Brien and that looks interesting. This Galileo colt is another stepping up in trip after running only over 1m, but breeding suggests he’s got a strong chance of improving for the extra yardage. Yes, you feel Moore would have had the pick of the O’Brien runners but they don’t always get it right. He rides SANTIAGO, who is yet another trying this new trip for the first time. It might be worth having both O’Brien runners on side as this Authorized colt is another that should be fine over the trip and with O’Brien’s top record in the race both are hard to ignore.

4.40 - Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2019 – Baghdad (7/2 fav)
2018 – Dash Of Spice (7/2 fav)
2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

 

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/17 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
14/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/17 – Placed last time out
12/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/17 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (3) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
10/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/17 – Had run at Ascot before
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 9 winners)
5/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Winning favourites
13 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall

TQ VERDICT: This has been another race with key trainer stats in – trainers Morrison, Stoute and Johnston have won a massive 10 of the last 17 runnings between them. No runner for Stoute this year, but Morrison has LE DON DE VIE, while Johnston has WEST END CHARMER. The first-named will be ridden by Ryan Moore and looks an interesting sort heading here off a break. He’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past so the 265-day absence isn’t a worry, while you can ignore his last run as that came over a trip that was probably too short for him. West End Charmer is up only 4lbs for his win at HQ this month, but he took that by an easy 4 ¾ lengths and could have more to come over this longer trip. Others to note are Durston, Al Muffrih, Deja and Medal Winner, while Frankie’s mount for John Gosden – El Misk – is sure to attract attention too.

 

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