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7th July 2020

2020 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 16th June)

GOOD NEWS - The 2020 ROYAL ASCOT  fixture is on!!  But, Ascot officials have already stated it will be done behind closed doors.

So, if the 2020 Royal Ascot Meeting is on, we get going with some cracking contests that include the Group One King's Stand Stakes and the Group Two Ribblesdale Stakes as two of the feature races on a seven-race card.

Did You Know - ALL of the last 18 King's Stand Stakes winners were aged 7 or younger?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

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2020 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

Day One – Tuesday 16th June 2020

1.15 - Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f

5/5 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
5/5 – Had run at Ascot before
5/5 – Had won over at least 6f before
5/5 – Had 5+ wins before
5/5 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
5/5 – Unplaced favourites
4/5 – Bred in Ireland
4/5 – Rated between 93-98
4/5 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
4/5 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
4/5 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/5 – Came from stall 29
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
0/5 – Winning favourites

Note: This race was last run at the meeting in 2014

A race that was last run at the Royal Meeting in 2014, but returns this year. If the old trends are anything to go by, then high-drawn horses are the ones to focus on – with 4 of the last 5 winners being double-figure drawn. With that in mind the Jamie Osborne-trained CLIFFS OF CAPRI (e/w), who is drawn in stall 27, could be interesting. The yard also boasts and impressive 26% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and this 6 year-old is also a proven CD winner here. He returned from the break with a fine second at HQ a few weeks ago and should now be spot-on for this. Of the rest, the David O’Meara yard were the last stable to win this race so their runners So Beloved and Firmament might be of interest too, while the likes of First Contact and recent Newmarket scorer – Blown By Wind – are others to note. Frankie rides Daarik for John Gosden and is another that is sure to be popular after winning well at Newcastle recently. However, you’d think that jockey Jim Crowley would have had the option to ride that horse, so the fact he’s picked another Maktoum runner – MOTAKHAYYEL (e/w) could be significant. This 4 year-old flopped here at Ascot last time out, but the softer ground that day was said to have not suited the horse, so with a break and on this quicker ground he’s worth giving another chance too as his form before that was looking very progressive.

1.50 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2019 – Lord Glitters (14/1)
2018 – Accidental Agent (33/1)
2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

17/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/18 – Previous winners over 1 mile
15/18 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
14/18 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had already won a Group 1 race
12/18 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/18 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/18 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (4)
9/18 – Favourites that were unplaced
9/18 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
8/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18  - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 2 winners from Stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

Godolphin and trainers Richard Hannon and Aidan O’Brien have top records in this race and are all represented again here. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin haveTerebellum and with Frankie riding is sure to be popular. She won well at HQ recently over 1m2f, but showed plenty of pace that day to suggest this drop to 1m will be fine. This is a step up in grade, but he looks useful prospect and is hard to rule out. Fox Champion, who was runner-up in the Hampton Court Stakes here last season, is another to consider, while Duke Of Hazzard has progressed since finishing 5th in the Jersey Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago. The Hannon team run their 2018 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – and she can’t be ruled out either, but hasn’t been the most reliable performer since that Classic win a few years ago. Of those at a bigger price,MUSTASHRY (e/w) looks interesting. This 7 year-old is actually the top-rated in the field (121) and is also a proven CD winner at the track. He’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past too, sot the 249-day break isn’t too much of a worry. But the main call has to be last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes winner – CIRCUS MAXIMUS. This 4 year-old hails from the Aidan O’Brien camp, who boasts some very useful G1 form. The blinkers remain on as they seemed to eke out more improvement in him last term, while Ryan Moore, who is actually looking for his first winner in this race, is a further plus in the saddle.

2.25 - Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Star Catcher (4/1)
2018 – Magic Wand (10/3)
2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Key Trends

15/17 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
14/17 – Had never raced at Ascot before
13/17 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
13/17 – Placed in their previous race
12/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/17 – Won their last race
6/17 – Irish-trained winners (5 of last 8)
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 6)
3/17 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

A race dominated by top yards John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, who between them have 4 (2 each) of the top 5 in the betting. The other main runner is the Ralph Beckett-trained Trefoil, who ran well at Newmarket on her return in the Pretty Polly Stakes at HQ last week – the step up in trip should also help her. O’Brien has Passion and Ennistymon in the race and jockey bookings suggest the Ryan Moore-ridden Passion is their main one, who should be better for a recent fourth at Navan in a Listed contest. However, I think John Gosden can take this. His Miss Yoda ran on very well to land the Lingfield Oaks Trial recently and over this longer trip and on this stiffer track it’s hard not seeing her running on well at the death and should be involved. However, the other Gosden runner – FRANKLY DARLING will be getting the Frankie treatment and looks a useful prospect after winning easily at Newcastle on the 1st of June. This Frankel filly has some fancy entries, including the Epsom Oaks, and the fact Frankie has picked to ride her over Miss Yoda tells it’s own story.

 

3.00 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Japan (6/4 fav)
2018 – Old Persian (9/2)
2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

17/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
13/17 – Had never raced at Ascot before
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/17 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
7/17 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
13 of the last 14 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

The unbeaten Mohican Heights, from the David Simcock yard, has done nothing wrong in winning his only two races and breeding suggests he’s the sort to progress again over this longer trip. Papa Power and Arthur’s Kingdom can’t be ruled out either, but the clear pick on form here is MOGUL, who the Aidan O’Brien yard. This 3 year-old was a decent fourth to Kameko in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Newcastle last November and that winner has since franked the form massively by winning the 2,000 Guineas – Ryan Moore rides. Of the rest, I think the William Muir runner – Pyledriver - can go well at a nice price too. This horse ran well to be third in a G3 at Kempton earlier this month and stayed on well that day to indicate the step up in trip will suit.  

3.35 - King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners

2019 – Blue Point (5/2)
2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

18/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
15/18 – Aged 4 or older
15/18 – Had won over 5f before
13/18 – Finished first or second last time out
13/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Had run at Ascot before (8 had won at the track)
10/18 – Favourites placed
10/18 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
6/18 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/18 – Favourites that finished third
3/18 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/18 – 3 Year-old winners
3/18 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 11 of the last 12 runnings

Blink and you’ll miss this one – especially with the speedster, BATTAASH, in the field. The reports are this talented 6 year-old has been doing well at home in recent weeks and despite only managing second in the race 12 months ago, won’t have the useful Blue Point in opposition this time. The fact the start of the season has been delayed might have helped him too as he’s won first time out for the last three seasons. He’s rated 126 and that’s well clear of anything else in the race – in fact, his nearest rival based on the ratings is the 116-rated Glass Slippers. Of the rest, the likes of Liberty Beach and Equilateral can fight it out for the places, but it doesn’t look the best of renewals for this G1 race as it would normally have a more international fee to it – therefore, it should be a straightforward task for the hot favourite – Battaash.

4.10 - The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m

Duke of Cambridge Recent Winners

2019 – Move Swiftly (9/1)
2018 – Aljazzi (9/2)
2017 – Qemah (5/2 fav)
2016 – Usherette (9/4 fav)
2015 – Amazing Maria (25/1)
2014 – Integral (9/4 fav)
2013 – Duntle (10/3)
2012 – Joviality (11/1)
2011 – Lolly For Dolly (11/1)
2010 – Strawberrydaiquiri (9/2)
2009 – Spacious (10/1)
2008 – Sabana Perdida (4/1)
2007 – Nannina (3/1 co-fav)
2006 – Soviet Song (11/8 fav)
2005 – Peeress (14/1)
2004 – Favourable Terms (13/2)

 

Duke of Cambridge Trends

15/16 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
14/16 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
14/16 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
14/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
11/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Favourites that were placed
7/16 – Had won at Ascot before
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/16 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/16 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
Only four placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings

A race the John Gosden yard have done well in previously, so their Nazeef catches the eye. This 4 year-old may well be fitter than most too after winning well at Kempton earlier this month. That, however, came in a Listed race so this jump up to a G2 will require more. The unbeaten Miss O Connor represents last year’s winning yard of William Haggas and there could be even more to come from this improving mare, who is 4-from-4 in her races so far. Magic Lily (3rd) and Queen Power (2nd) ran well on their return runs behind Godolpin’s Terebellum and can both be expected to have improved for that effort and if Terebellum runs well in the Queen Anne earlier on this card, then that would improve their chances. Lavender’s Blue has solid form to suggest she can go well too, but the call here is JUBILOSO. The Sir Michael Stoute yard, who also train Queen Power, have a top record in the race with 4 wins in the last 16. Yes, this 4 year-old has a bit to prove at the moment and was well beaten by Lavendar’s Blue at Sandown back in August. However, that run was clearly too bad to be true and with 290 days to get over it, is wroth giving another chance to. She ran third at this meeting last year too, in the G1 Coronation Stakes, so a repeat of that effort in this slightly worse grade would see her as a huge player.

4.40 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – The Grand Visir (12/1)
2018 – Lagostovegas (10/1)
2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

16/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
14/18 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
14/18 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
12/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Won their previous race
3/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
7 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
Just one winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 12 runnings

Run over 2m4f, this is one of the longest races on the flat and, therefore, often one that we see several of the jumping yards trying their luck in. It’s also a race that jockey Ryan Moore has done well in – winning it 3 times since 2012 – so it will be no shock to see his ride – Verdana Blue – as attracting a lot of support. This Nicky Henderson-trained 8 year-old is normally seen over hurdles and was last seen running 4th behind the eventual Champion Hurdle winner – Epantante – at Kempton in the Xmas Hurdle. He was also 4th in the G3 Sagaro Stakes here at Ascot last season and so on that form in this handicap looks a big player. Moon King was a nice winner on his return race at Haydock last week but he only beat BLUE LAUREATE (e/w) by ahead that day and with the Ian Williams yard winning this race 12 months ago I think the better value lies with him. He’s got a slight weight pull and also has Cieren Fallon on again to claim 3lbs. Williams also runs Mancini. Land Of Oz is a consistent performer and will be a lot better for his recent run at Chelmsford and can’t be discounted, but the other pick is the Mark Johnston runner – SUMMER MOON (e/w). This 4 year-old was third in the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket last season and despite flopping next time out that came on heavy ground and over a trip that would have been on the short side. The yard have started back from the break in great form too and often do well in these staying races at the Royal Meeting.

 

 

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