Welcome to Trainers Quotes!
7th July 2020

2020 Royal Ascot Free Tips and Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 17th June)

GOOD NEWS - The 2020 ROYAL ASCOT  fixture is on!!  But, Ascot officials have already stated it will be done behind closed doors.

The feature contest on DAY TWO at Royal Ascot is the Group One Prince of Wales’s Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know –
17 of the last 18 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old, while 13 of the last 18 successful horses in the race were previous Group One winners?

Like all big race days here at TRAINERS QUOTES we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

==================================================================

Note: Due to the current COVID-19 situation, Ascot have already stated that if their Royal Ascot Meeting gets the green light to race, it will be staged behind closed doors.

==================================================================

So, like all big race days here at TRAINERS-QUOTES we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

2020 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

Day Two – Wednesday 17th June 2020

1.15 - Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (3yo+) 1m

A new consultation race for the Hunt Cup, that is run later on this card. Therefore, no real stats to go on but if the main Hunt Cup trends are anything to go by then horses aged 4 or 5 years-old, who have won 15 of the last 18 runnings, plus those drawn high (12 of the last 14 came from a double-figure draw) might be the ones to focus on. With that in mind, the Richard Hannon runner OUZO, who is drawn in 24, looks sure to attract attention here. Ridden by Ryan Moore too, this 4 year-old returned the track recently with a close second at Newmarket and gets in here off the same mark. We can expect that run to have improved him too as it came off a 201-day break and was also only his third outing since June 19. Maydanny is another unexposed sort that could progress onto better things and was a good winner a few weeks ago at Yarmouth, while Frankie catches the eye riding Alternative Fact for trainer Ed Dunlop, and Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride the William Knight entry – Sir Busker. Nicklaus, Almufti and recent Doncaster scorer Presidential are some others that can make their presence felt. Of that lot, the Roger Varian runner – SALAYEL (e/w) – is another I’ll be playing. This 4 year-old has only had four career runs in this country and should have more to offer. He’s yet to finish out of the top four and with another year on her back should be a lot stronger this year – draw 17 also will give her options to go either side.

1.50 - Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Sangarius (13/2)
2018 – Hunting Horn (5/1)
2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Key Trends

16/17 – Had not raced at Ascot before
14/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/17 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
10/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 - Ran at Epsom last time out
3/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
9 of the last 14 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

The Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute yards have done well in this race over the years and both look to have solid chances again this season. O’Brien has two in the race – New World Tapestry and Russian Emperor – of the pair the last-named looks their better hope but still might be worth taking on having been beaten as favourite in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial last time out. JUAN ELCANO is the top-rated in the field though and after a very promising 5th in the 2,000 Guineas last time out looks the one to beat. This Frankel colt’s breeding suggests he’ll be better over this 1m2f trip too and should also be a lot sharper now for that last run. Stoute has First Receiver running for the Queen and with Frankie riding too then this one will be a popular choice, while Berlin Tango has every chance after his recent win at Kempton – Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding team-up here. But at a bigger price it might be worth giving another chance to the Charlie Fellowes runner – KING CARNEY (e/w). This 3 year-old showed a lot of promise last term but clearly didn’t’ stay the 1m4f trip in the Derby Trial at Lingfield last time. The drop back to 1m2f, therefore, will suit better and the very quick ground last time also wasn’t ideal. Any rain would help but as long as the ground is ‘good’ can be expected to run a lot better than last time.

 

2.25 - King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – South Pacific (22/1)
2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 - Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

 

King George V Stakes Key Trends

17/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
17/17 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
16/17 – Never raced at Ascot before
16/17 – Placed last time out
14/17 – Carried 8-13 or less
12/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
10/17 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
8/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (4)
4/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
10 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)

With 10 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 10-20 (inc), then BRIGHT MELODY, SUMMERONSEVENHILLS, KIPPS, WIN O’CLOCK, TO NATHANIEL, SUBJECTIVIST, ARTHURIAN FABLE, BODYLINE & OLEKSANDER are the ones that fit that draw stat. Of that lot, it’s a race that trainer Mark Johnston often does well in and he’s got SUBJECTIVIST (e/w), with Ryan Moore booked to ride. Drawn in 15 looks a plus, and should be a lot better for a break. He is significantly up in trip, but connections clearly feel it will be what he wants and he ran the useful Juan Elcano close on debut last season. Johnston also has King’s Caper, with Frankie riding, plus Glenties and Trumpet Man. The other of interest is the Roger Charlton runner – WIN O’CLOCK (e/w). This 3 year-old was a cracking winner on it’s return run at Haydock last week and is only 4lbs higher. The longer trip looks well within range and with only 4 career runs should have more to come. The very-much inform Hollie Doyle gets the ride.

3.00 - The Prince of Wales´s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Recent Winners

2019 – Crystal Ocean (3/1)
2018 – Poet’s Word (11/2)
2017 – Highland Reel (9/4)
2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 -  Grandera (4/1)


Prince of Wales´s Stakes Trends

18/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
17/18 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
15/18 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
15/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/18 – Were previous Group 1 winners
12/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Won their last race
10/18 – Had run at Ascot before
9/18 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
6/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3 of the last 12 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse

Lord North is a horse certainly going the right way and has now finished in the first two in 6 of his 7 turf runs, including a nice win at Haydock last time out, but it’s interesting Frankie Dettori choses to ride the other Gosden runner in the field – Mehdaayih. Course winner Barney Roy is a classy sort, but this 1m2f trip gives him a few questions to answer. Addeybb was a nice winner of a G1 in Australia last time out and was a very impressive winner of the Wolferton Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago – but this will be harder. Headman would have a big chance too and wasn’t disgraced last time out in the G1 Irish Champions Stakes, but so far, his two group successes have been a G2 level. So that leaves us with JAPAN – the joint top-rated in the field from the Aidan O’Brien yard. This 4 year-old won the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting last season and ran a blinder to be fourth in the Arc last October. He’s rated 122 and despite that being the same as Addeybb, you feel Japan’s level of success at the top level has been in better races. Ryan Moore rides and can give trainer Aidan O’Brien yet another win in this race.

3.35 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m

Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners

2019 – Afaak (20/1)
2018 – Settle For Bay (16/1)
2017 – Zhui Feng (25/1)
2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

17/18 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Unplaced favourites
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price
13/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/18 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
11/18 – Had run at Ascot before
10/18 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 8 of the last 11 runnings)
5/18 – Won their last race
2/18 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/18 – Won by trainer John Gosden
1/18 – Winning favourites
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years
12 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 11 runnings

Several key trends to take note of here – like 15 of the last 18 winners being aged 4 or 5 years-old, while 12 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall. Taking both those stats into account then BELL ROCK, DARK VISION, VALE OF KENT, ALRAJAA, LORD TENNYSON, FOX CHAMPION, BALTIC BARON and PETRUS are the ones that tick a lot of boxes. Of that bunch, I’ll be taking a chance on the two Mark Johnston runners – DARK VISION (e/w) and VALE OF KENT (e/w). The former is a Godolphin runner that was only beaten a head at Newcastle this month. That would have brought him on after 227 days off and that Johnston yard are going great guns at the moment – William Buick rides. One of their other runners - VALE OF KENT (e/w) – also returned with a solid effort, when third at Newmarket in a decent race and was only beaten 4 ½ lengths behind the useful-looking Marie’s Diamond. Yes, the horse was 7th in this race 12 months ago off a 9lb lower mark, but I feel he’s a much better horse now. Others to note are Kynren (5th last year) and last year’s winner in the race – Afaak – but he’s 3lbs higher this year and hasn’t been able to follow-up on that win since. The final one that might be worth an interest is the Jamie Osborne runner – RAISING SANDS (e/w). This 8 year-old does have a bit to find with the trends – being an 8 year-old and drawn 3, but the yard have a decent 26% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and this horse has run well in this race in the past – was third in this race 12 months ago.

4.10 - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2019 – Southern Hills (7/1)
2018 – Soldier’s Call (12/1)
2017 – Sound And Silence (16/1)
2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

18/18 – Had at least 1 previous outing
17/18 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
17/18 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
14/18 – Had won over 5f before
13/18 – Placed last time out
13/18 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Won their previous race
8/18 – Won by a Feb foal
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Wesley Ward
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

A race the US-based trainer – Wesley Ward – likes to target and he’s sending a few over again this year – SUNSHINE CITY and Sheriff Bianco. Both look very fast sorts but with Frankie, who often rides for Ward, choosing Sunshine City, then this one looks the better of the two. She won on debut over 4 ½ furlongs at Gulfstream Park and the fact they are sending her over speaks volumes. Like most of the Ward speedsters we can expect her to blast out and make it very hard for the others to peg her back. The challengers look likely to come from the Aidan O’Brien-trained Chief Little Hawk, who won well on debut at Navan over 5f. Mighty Gurkha, Tactical and Get In are others to consider.

4.40 - Copper Horse Handicap (4yo+) 1m6f

Another of the new races at this year’s Royal Ascot Meeting so no past stats to go on, but it’s hard to get away from the Hugo Palmer runner – COLLIDE – here, with Ryan Moore riding. This 5 year-old won well on his return run at Chelmsford last week and is only 5lbs higher here. He looks a fast-improving stayer that has now won 6 of his 13 starts – he’ll need more to be able to give weight away to all the others (carries 9-11), but is a horse that could easily turn out to be better than a handicapper in time. Of the rest, Fujaira Prince showed good form last season to think he’s another that can improve, while Ranch Hand and Alright Sunshine are others to note. Themaxwecan is a proven course winner that stays further than this 1m6f trip and hails from the in-form Mark Johnston yard, but the other pick is the James Fanshawe-trained SELINO (e/w). This 4 year-old was an easy 10 length winner at Wolverhampton back in October and despite this being an obvious step up in class, he looks a potentially useful stayer that hails from a shrewd yard.

 

===========================================================

Comments are closed.

TQ Newsletter
Get the latest news from Trainers Quotes here
We respect your privacy.