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30th September 2020

2020 Winter Derby Trends and Free Tips

2020 Winter Derby Betting Trends - First run in 1998 the Betway-sponsored Winter Derby is staged at Lingfield racecourse and run on their All Weather track. The 1m2f contest in now a Group 3 race after being upgraded from Listed class back in 2006.

In recent years a 4 year-old has won the race 4 times in the last 9 runnings, while it could pay to concentrate on horses aged 6 or younger as this age group has been responsible for 14 of the last 17 winners – last year the John Gosden-trained Wissahickon won the race easily as the short-priced favourite.

Here at TQ we look back at the recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take in the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 22nd February.

Recent Lingfield Winter Derby Winners

2019 - WISSAHICKON (1/4 fav)
2018 - MASTER THE WORLD (16/1)
2017 - CONVEY (11/2)
2016 – GRENDISAR (11/4)
2015 – TRYSTER (3/1 fav)
2014 – ROBIN HOODS BAY (10/1)
2013 – FARRAAJ (6/4 fav)
2012 – PREMIO LOCO (5/1)
2011 – NIDEEB (9/4 fav)
2010 – TRANQUIL TIGER (11/8 fav)
2009 – SCINTILLO (8/1)
2008 – HATTAN (14/1)
2007 – GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (4/1 jfav)
2006 – SRI DIAMOND (8/1)
2005 – ECCENTRIC (7/2)
2004 – CALUKI (14/1)
2003 – PARASOL (5/2 jfav)

Key Lingfield Winter Derby Betting Trends

16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Had run at Lingfield previously
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/17 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – less than a length
11/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the market
11/17 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/17 – Winning favourites
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 17 renewals is 6/1

 

TQ VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden won this race 12 months ago and he looks to have another strong hand – this time with Dubai Warrior and Court House. Of the pair, Court House was runner-up in the race 12 months ago so has to be respected, but was also fairly well-beaten last time out here behind Bangkok. CD winner, Dubai Warrior will have a certain Frankie Dettori riding and also beat Court House easily last time (3 ¾ lengths). There is only four pounds between Dubai Warrior and BANGKOK, but that still might be enough to see the Andrew Balding runner prevail. This 4 year-old took well to the surface and the track on his sole run here last time out when winning the AW Derby Trial by an easy 4 ½ lengths and a repeat of that run would see him very hard to beat. Of the rest, the 2018 winner of this race – Master The World – isn’t getting any younger at 9 years-old but might just outrun his odd – if there are firms offering top 3 or 4 places in this 7 runner race, then he could be the place value.

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